The development of an early stage thermal model to protect against uncertainty and morbidity in buildings under predicted climate change

政府承诺到2050年将碳排放量减少80%。航空旅行和航运等一些行业将难以实现这一目标，而建筑环境等其他行业将不得不转向至少碳中和的地位，目前这些行业贡献了英国略低于一半的碳排放。为了解决这一问题，政府制定了一套机制，以实现总体目标，到2016年，新建住宅和学校实现零碳，到2018年，所有其他新的公共部门建筑实现零碳，到2019年，所有其他建筑实现零排放。很明显，气候变暖将增加建筑环境中的过热风险，传统上这会导致空调使用量增加，并增加能源消耗。预计夏季气温上升将导致适应能力差的建筑物中的弱势群体死亡率上升；增加应急服务的负担。该奖学金旨在创建一种早期设计工具，以降低气候变暖时建筑物内的发病率和死亡率。拟议的工具将使用最新的气候预测、经过验证的建筑物热力模型以及最容易受到热应力影响的人类体温调节的新模型。研究将分四个阶段进行。首先，将捕获最终用户(在本例中为架构师)所能接受的最大输入级别。允许的最大击键次数和技术概念的复杂性最有可能是限制因素。第二阶段将包括制作一个简单的动态热模型，该模型将预测一系列建筑、天气模式和气候的内部环境。第三阶段将开发一种新的人体温度调节模型，该模型可以被合并到具有时变内部环境的建筑物的热模型中。第四阶段将把该模型扩展到建筑法规传统上不要求热模型和气候变化将产生最大影响的地区。传统的热模型通常需要对建筑物的几何形状和结构进行准确的描述，这一点直到开发的后期才能普遍获得。这类模型通常仅用于证明符合建筑法规。因此，有必要制定一种工具，能够在设计过程的早期阶段考虑缓解和适应议程，最重要的是，能够考虑人类的热应激。

The Government is committed to a reduction in carbon emissions of 80 % by 2050. Some sectors such as air travel and shipping will struggle to meet this target, while other sectors such as the built environment will have to move to a position of carbon neutrality at least which currently contribute just under half of the UK's carbon emissions. To address this problem the government have developed a mechanism to reach the overall target with new domestic properties and schools becoming zero carbon by 2016, all other new public sector buildings by 2018 and all other buildings by 2019. It is clear that a warming climate will increase the overheating risk in the built environment where traditionally this would lead to increased air conditioning use and add to energy consumption. Predicted summertime temperature increases can be expected to lead to higher mortality rates among vulnerable groups in poorly adapted buildings; increasing the burden on the emergency services. This fellowship aims to create an early stage design tool to reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality within buildings as the climate warms. The proposed tool will use the most recent climate predictions, a proven thermal model of a building and new models of human thermo-regulation among those most susceptible to heat stress. The research will be carried out over four phases. Firstly, the maximum level of input tolerated by the end user, in this case architects, will be captured. The maximum number of key strokes tolerated and the complexity of the technical concepts are most likely to be limiting factors. The second phase will involve the production of a simple dynamic thermal model which will predict the internal environment for a range of constructions, weather patterns and climates. The third phase will develop a new human thermo-regulatory model which can be incorporated into a thermal model of a building with time varying internal environments. The fourth phase will extend the model to areas where building regulations do not traditionally require thermal modelling and climate change will have the greatest impact. Traditional thermal models usually require an accurate description of the building's geometry and construction which is not generally available until the latter stages of development. Such models are generally used to demonstrate compliance with building regulations only. Hence there is a need to produce a tool which is able to consider both the mitigation and adaptation agenda and most importantly heat stress in humans at an early stage in the design process.