Identifying and Modelling Victim, Business, Regulatory and Malware Behaviours in a Changing Cyberthreat Landscape

英国内阁办公室和Detica在2011年报告称，网络犯罪每年给英国经济造成的损失为270亿英镑。不管这一估计的准确性如何，英国犯罪调查和欧盟统计局的信息通信技术调查表明，网络犯罪现在是英国典型的大规模财产犯罪，比传统的获取性犯罪（如入室盗窃和盗窃汽车）对公众的影响更大。由于网络犯罪的全球性，大多数其他国家对网络犯罪的流行程度和损失都有类似的估计。然而，尽管大多数政治家、警察和商界领袖都认为网络犯罪是现代最大的犯罪挑战之一，但似乎很少有人完全了解导致网络犯罪的原因，以及如何最好地预测网络犯罪的发生，并限制其对英国经济和社会的影响。该项目旨在利用包括犯罪学、心理学、经济学、数学和计算机科学在内的一系列学科的方法和概念来解决这些不确定性。项目的主要目标是识别、理解和预测：云环境内外的恶意软件和人类网络犯罪者的行为；2. 2 .与网络犯罪相关的业务风险评估实践、威胁意识水平和适应性行为；3 .监管体系中刑事司法机关对网络犯罪和商业信任的反应；与隐私、问责制和公民自由问题相关的商业和刑事司法网络安全实践（如信息共享）。该项目将开发一种计算工具，帮助预测与商业有关的网络攻击。技术（例如恶意软件行为，网络漏洞等）和人类/组织（合作水平，风险感知，威胁评估，成本，刑事司法响应等）措施将首次结合在这个预测过程中。预计这一工具将有助于网络安全和犯罪领域的政策制定者和从业者。它将确定哪些企业（按部门、规模、合作水平等）最容易受到攻击，从而使政策、业务守则和建议能够量身定制并有针对性。该工具还具有提供与调查和起诉程序有关的数字和人力/组织形式的证据和其他信息的潜力。为了传播研究的工具和结果，我们将纳入行动研究元素，我们将开发一个论坛（在第2年和第3年举办两次研讨会），通过向不同行业和规模的企业（特别是中小企业）发布简报文件，分阶段发布初步或草案（但经过验证）的研究结果。我们还将通过同行评议的期刊文章和会议来传播研究结果。在整个项目中，我们将通过咨询小组与其他关键商业计划（例如英国电信实验室的土星项目）以及法定和第三部门组织（如ENISA， Honeynet项目，内政部）建立联系；内阁办公室身份保证计划；国家统计局；国家反欺诈局；严重欺诈办公室；交易标准;严重有组织犯罪局/国家犯罪局；总警务主任协会；大都会警察中央重案组；NPIA /警察学院;欧洲宇航防务集团;安全上网，自由和聪明的孩子。

HM Cabinet Office and Detica reported in 2011 that the annual cost to the UK economy from cybercrime was £27 billion. Regardless of the accuracy of this estimate the British Crime Survey and Eurostat ICT survey evidence that cybercrime is now the typical volume property crime in the UK, impacting more of the public than traditional acquisitive crimes such as burglary and car theft. Because of its global nature similar estimates of the prevalence and losses of cybercrime are found in most other countries. However, whilst most politicians, police, and business leaders agree that cybercrimes are one of the greatest crime challenges of modern times, few seem to fully understand what causes them and how to best predict their occurrence and limit their impact upon the UK economy and society.This project aims to address these uncertainties using methods and concepts from a range of disciplines including criminology, psychology, economics, mathematics and computer science. The key objectives of the project are to identify, understand and predict:1. The behaviour of malware and human cyber perpetrators within and outside of Cloud environments; 2. Business risk assessment practices, threat awareness levels, and adaptive behaviours as related to cybercrime;3. The response of criminal justice agencies to cybercrime and business trust in the regulatory system;4. Business and criminal justice cyber security practices (e.g. information sharing) in relation to issues of privacy, accountability and civil liberties.The project will develop a computational tool that will assist in the prediction of business related cyber attacks. For the first time both technical (e.g. malware behaviour, network vulnerabilities etc.) and human/organisational (level of cooperation, perception of risk, threat assessment, costs, criminal justice response etc.) measures will be combined in this predictive process. It is envisaged that this tool will assist both policy makers and practitioners in the field of cyber security and crime. It will identify which businesses (by sector, size, level of cooperation etc.) are most vulnerable to attack allowing policy, codes of practice and advice to be tailored and targeted. The tool also has the potential to provide digital and human/organisational forms of evidence and other information relevant to investigation and prosecution proceedings. In order to disseminate the tool and results from the research we will incorporate an action research element where we will develop a forum (two workshops in years 2&3) where initial or draft (but verified) findings are released in stages, through briefing papers to businesses of varying sectors and sizes (particularly SMEs). We will also disseminate results via peer-reviewed journal articles and conferences. Throughout the project via the advisory group we will link into other key commercial initiatives (e.g. Saturn project at BT Labs) and statutory and third sector organisations such as ENISA, the Honeynet Project, Home Office; Cabinet Office Identity Assurance Programme; Office for National Statistics; National Fraud Authority; Serious Fraud Office; Trading Standards; Serious Organised Crime Agency/National Crime Agency; Association of Chief Police Officers; Met Police Central eCrime Unit; NPIA/Police College; EADS; Get Safe Online, Liberty and Wise Kids.