Probabilistic Transient Propagation (PTP)

供应足够数量的安全、清洁的水是现代文明社会的基石。尽管如此，水是大多数人认为理所当然的事情，没有意识到供水基础设施的巨大规模以及在确保日常运营和未来供应方面面临的工程挑战。配水系统（WDS）处于不断变化的状态。供水的压力和流速是不断变化的，这些变化可能发生得非常快。这些现象被称为水力瞬变，是压力的变化，以交替的高低波的形式在网络周围传播。这些更改可能会损坏管网的管道和要素。这个项目的愿景是改变如何在白龙会水力瞬变建模考虑，从一开始，我们在这些系统中固有的不确定性。这种概率方法将为水务公司及其地面工程师提供必要的知识，以评估瞬变可能对资产造成的风险，使他们能够做出决策，以尽量减少极端或周期性瞬变对其系统的损害，能够针对维护，维修或更换投资，从而确保这些不可或缺但老化的网络的长期可持续运营。传统上，水力瞬变仅在简单系统中得到真实的考虑，因为它们被认为发生的时间非常短，并且消失得非常快。由于缺乏可用于建模的工具和测量真实的系统中瞬态的技术，这一问题变得更加复杂。最近的研究强调，瞬变发生得更频繁，而且比以前意识到的更广泛。能够预测水力瞬变的大小和形状将是网络运营商帮助他们管理风险的一个非常有用的工具。我们目前的建模工具在控制良好的实验室环境中给出了良好的结果，但在应用于真实的复杂系统时失败了。本研究项目的目的是预测这些瞬态波在WDS中的传播，并根据系统参数和边界条件传播不确定性。该项目中考虑的不确定性主要是由于系统特性，例如管道的粗糙度（影响输水所需能量的关键因素）或瞬态波传播的速度（受材料类型和管道劣化程度影响的因素）。由于模型将考虑我们对系统的不确定性，因此它不会给我们一个单一的值来预测给定时间和位置的瞬态特性;相反，它会给我们一系列可能的结果以及每个结果发生的概率。该项目将首先开发一个强大的，但计算昂贵的采样方法，然后探索新的技术，以提高建模过程的效率，使其能够应用于全尺寸系统，并确保该技术的广泛吸收由industrial.Hydraulic瞬变捕获大量的系统信息，因为它们通过系统的每一个功能，他们通过修改。这些信息，如果适当解码，可以获得有关网络状况和运行的重要知识。在第一个拨款提案中进行的研究将为未来的工作提供基础，以展示模拟结果与测量数据相结合的潜力;减少实际系统参数的不确定性，并为WDS网络运营商提供第一个可行的广泛实施的条件评估工具。

The supply of sufficient quantities of safe, clean water is a corner stone of modern civilised society. Despite this water is something that most people take for granted, being unaware of the huge scale of the water distribution infrastructure and the engineering challenges faced in ensuring day-to-day operation and the future of our supply. Water Distribution Systems (WDS) are in a state of constant flux. The pressure of the water supplied and the velocity it travels at are continually changing, and these changes can occur extremely rapidly. These phenomena are known as hydraulic transients and are variations of pressure that spread out around the network in waves of alternating highs and lows. These changes can cause damage to the pipes and features of the network. The vision of this project is to change how hydraulic transients in WDS are modelled by taking into account, from the start, the inherent uncertainties we have in these systems. This probabilistic approach will provide water utilities and their engineers on the ground with the required knowledge to assess the risks that transients may pose to assets, allowing them to make decisions to minimise damage to their systems from extreme or cyclic transients, to be able to target investment in maintenance, repair or replacement and therefore ensure the long-term sustainable operation of these indispensable yet ageing networks. Traditionally hydraulic transients have only been given real consideration in simple systems, as they were thought to occur for very short periods and to die away very quickly. This has been compounded by the lack of tools available to model, and the technology to measure, transients in real systems. Recent research has highlighted that transients occur far more often and are far more widespread than previously realised. Being able to make predictions of the size and shape of hydraulic transients would be an exceptionally useful tool for network operators to help them manage the risks they pose. Our current modelling tools give good results in well controlled lab environments but fail when applied to real, complex systems. The aim of this research project is to predict the travel of these transient waves in WDS and to propagate the uncertainties based on system parameters and boundary conditions. The uncertainty being considered in this project is primarily due to the system properties, for instance the roughness of pipes (a critical factor affecting how much energy is needed to transmit water) or the speed that the transient waves travel (a factor that is influenced by the type of material and the level of deterioration of the pipes). As the model will take into account our uncertainty of the system it will not give us a single value for the prediction of a transient's properties at a given time and location; rather it will give us a range of possible results and the probability that each will occur. The project will first develop a robust but computationally expensive sampling approach, then explore new techniques to improve the efficiency of the modelling process to allow it to be applied to full scale systems and to ensure the wide uptake of the techniques by industry.Hydraulic transients capture a huge amount of system information as they are modified by every feature of the system through which they pass. This information, if suitably decoded, can give access to vital knowledge of the condition and operation of the networks. The research undertaken in this first grant proposal will provide the foundation for future work to demonstrate the potential of combining simulation results with measured data; to reduce the uncertainty in actual system parameters and give WDS network operators the first viable widely implementable condition assessment tool.