Bringing the Mediterranean to Birmingham: impact and adaptation for 8-12 degrees of warming

极端天气会对我们的基础设施服务造成损害，如能源供应、信息和通信技术（ICT）、交通、供水等。我们的许多基础设施服务是相互依存的，一个部门的失败会导致其他部门的失败。例如，由于极端高温或洪水造成的变电站故障可能导致停电，减少ICT服务，并导致交通中断，因为我们的道路（例如，交通灯）和铁路网络需要电力来运行。找到这些对多个基础设施网络产生不成比例影响的基础设施薄弱点，对于基础设施的复原力至关重要。此外，由于我们的基础设施有几十年或更长的使用寿命，我们必须现在就采取行动，为未来的极端天气做好准备。然而，目前的适应计划往往是由每个基础设施部门（如铁路、信通技术）单独完成的，因此在设计上没有考虑到基础设施的相互依赖性，本提案提出了一种替代适应规划办法，打破行业孤岛，使用H++（“最坏情况”）极端气候变化情景。高排放和H++情景预测伯明翰和西米德兰兹郡未来的地中海热量。该提案将考虑极端高温对整个区域基础设施的影响。特别是，它将寻找可能导致多个基础设施部门多重故障的弱点。该项目将利用地中海城市耐热基础设施的最佳实践范例，确定可在中部地区使用的潜在适应战略。最佳做法的例子是那些提供长期可持续性和多重效益的做法，例如城市绿化，它可以提供气候调节以建立热适应力，但也可以改善空气质量，提供可持续的城市排水，并对健康和福祉产生积极影响。将与基础设施运营商/所有者分享基础设施最薄弱环节和最佳做法实例，以促进整体的循证适应规划。适应方法可用于其他城市和其他极端天气类型。将编写指导文件，以便该方法能够在不同情况和区域的国家和国际范围内应用。可持续耐热基础设施和热适应措施的最佳做法范例库将在网上提供，供全球传播。该提案通过应用系统的方法在城市和区域范围内开发热弹性基础设施，具体解决了LWEC的挑战。伯明翰是一个出色的示范者; HS 2和新的终点站将于2026年抵达该市。需要51，000套新住房来满足不断增长的人口。它还面临着多种挑战，这些挑战将因极端高温而加剧，包括对电力和公用事业的需求增加，城市热岛效应以及目前正在满负荷运行的交通网络。现在是在作出长期决定和进行不可逆转的基础设施发展之前进行有效的适应规划的时候了。至关重要的是，随着西米德兰兹郡向权力下放政府的转变，有机会领导这样的区域研究来制定治理计划。Emma Ferranti博士在城市气候学和基础设施气象学方面进行了挑战性的研究。她拥有NERC知识交流奖学金，与包括基础设施运营商，地方当局，规划师和热衷于城市绿化的专业人士在内的网络。该奖学金将使她能够在以决策为中心的适应规划中建立一个新的多学科研究领域，该领域利用伯明翰大学工程，地理，地球和环境科学学院的卓越研究成果。

Extreme weather causes damage to our infrastructure services such as energy supply, information and communications technology (ICT), transport, water supply, and more. Many of our infrastructure services are interdependent, and a failure in one sector leads to failure in other sectors. For example, failure of an electric substation due to extreme heat or flooding could lead to power cuts, reduced ICT services, and transport disruption because our road (eg. traffic lights) and railway networks need electricity to operate. Finding these infrastructure weak points that have a disproportionate impact across several infrastructure networks is essential for infrastructure resilience. Moreover, as our infrastructure has an operational lifetime of several decades or more we must act now to be prepared for future extreme weather. However, current adaptation plans are often done separately by each infrastructure sector (e.g. rail, ICT) and therefore by design do not consider infrastructure interdependencies.This proposal presents an alternative approach to adaptation planning that breaks down industry silos and uses H++ ("worst-case") extreme climate change scenarios. High emissions and H++ scenarios predict the equivalent of Mediterranean heat for Birmingham and the West Midlands in the future. This proposal will consider the impact that extreme heat would have on infrastructure of the region as a whole. Particularly, it will look for weak points that could cause multiple failures across several infrastructure sectors. The project will use best-practice examples of heat-resilient infrastructure from Mediterranean cities to identify potential adaptation strategies that could be used in the Midlands. Best practice examples will be those that deliver long-term sustainability and multiple benefits, such as urban greening, which can provide climate regulation to build heat resilience, but also improve air quality, provide sustainable urban drainage, and positively influence health and well-being. The weakest infrastructure links and examples of best practice will be shared with infrastructure operators/owners to facilitate holistic, evidence-based adaptation planning. The adaptation approach can be used in other cities and for other extreme weather types. Guidance documents will be created so the method can be applied nationally and internationally in different situations and regions. The library of best practice examples of sustainable heat-resilient infrastructure and heat adaptation measures will be available online for global dissemination. This proposal specifically addresses the LWEC challenge by applying a system-of-systems approach to develop heat resilient infrastructure at a city and regional scales. Birmingham is an excellent demonstrator; HS2 and the new terminus station will arrive in the city by 2026. 51,000 new homes are required for the growing population. It also faces multiple challenges that will be exacerbated by extreme heat including increasing demand for electricity and utilities, an urban heat island effect, and transport networks which are currently operating at capacity. Now is the time for effective adaptation planning before long-term decisions and irreversible infrastructure development are undertaken. Crucially, as the West Midlands moves to devolved government there is the opportunity for leading regional research like this to shape governance plans. Dr Emma Ferranti undertakes challenge-led research in urban climatology and infrastructure meteorology. She holds a NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellowship with networks including infrastructure operators, local authorities, planners, and professionals passionate about urban-greening. This Fellowship will enable her to establish a new multidisciplinary research area in decision-centric adaptation planning that utilises research excellence from the Schools of Engineering, and Geography, Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Birmingham.