Roadmaps to Zero Net Emissions in Urban Public Transport

技术和社会变革正在改变公共交通服务的性质。随着对空气质量、拥堵和能源安全的担忧加剧，人们越来越重视发展可持续、可靠的低排放和零排放交通系统。作为回应，在新的公交技术上投入了大量资金-在整个欧盟，目前有超过1300辆电动公交车在运营或订购中，其中英国作为欧洲最大的运营商持有其中18%的股份。欧洲25个城市的19个公共运营商和当局承诺，未来3年电动公交车车队将增长92%，到2025年，整个欧盟电动公交车车队的规模可能会比目前的基线增加4.5倍以上。在全球层面上，目前预计2017至2025年间电动公交车的综合年增长率为33.5%。该行业的快速增长对英国来说是一个巨大的商机，但也带来了一系列挑战，包括对采购/运营成本、车辆续航里程、能源效率、基础设施(包括民用和能源)是否适合应对日益增长的需求、如何解决社会接受造成的堵塞、政策冲突以及未来废物流的有效管理等问题的担忧。正是在这种背景下，当前的繁荣伙伴关系汇集了一个由女王大学、贝尔法斯特和Wrightbus组成的多学科团队，以全面了解将下一代零净排放(ZNE)公交车引入公共交通部门所带来的挑战。在快速创新的环境中，对短期和长期技术风险和机会的详细了解是成功开发的关键。这项拟议的研究旨在确保英国在下一代和未来几代节能公交技术的发展中保持领先地位。这项研究将集中于四个关键的、高度集成的挑战：1.在公交车行业，对于最佳的零净排放车辆技术没有达成共识，在开发动力总成技术方面存在重大挑战，这些技术最大限度地提高了燃料/排放/里程/负载系数的效率，同时保持在健康监测和自主性方面的进步。由于面临特定行业的挑战，公交车行业落后于乘用车行业，但将在支撑下一代低碳经济方面发挥关键作用。下一代汽车将需要对能源消耗的变化越来越有弹性，不仅是在车辆层面上，以缓解里程焦虑，在这种情况下，能源消耗将随着路线的不同而变化很大，而且在车队之间也是如此，在这些领域，对生命周期能源需求和废物流的更好理解将有助于未来提高能源效率和安全性。随着公交车变得越来越先进，不仅有机会改进车辆的设计，而且还有机会改进车辆与基础设施的整合，走向下一代智慧城市。基础设施传感器的路过监测和感应充电将使我们能够更好地了解我们的交通系统如何影响我们的基础设施的健康状况，并了解如何通过基于车辆的监测协议确保我们的公交网络的附加值。4.整个部门都不确定新兴政策如何考虑技术以外的因素，例如社会影响、合法性、文化规范和经济机会。有必要将这些社会层面与技术创新结合起来，作为规划和管理过渡路径的一部分。

Technological and societal changes are transforming the nature of public transport services. As concerns over air quality, congestion, and energy security have become elevated, there has been increasing emphasis on the development of sustainable, reliable low- and zero-emissions transport systems. In response there has been significant investment in new bus technologies - across the EU, there are currently over 1,300 electric buses in operation or on order, with the UK holding 18% of these as the largest operator in Europe. There are commitments from 19 public operators and authorities across 25 European cities, which would see a growth in this fleet of up to 92% over the next 3 years, and by 2025 the size of the electric bus fleet across the EU could be increased by more than 4.5 times over the baseline today. At a global level, the Combined Annual Growth Rate for electric buses is currently predicted to be 33.5% between 2017 and 2025. This rapid growth in the sector represents a substantial business opportunity for the UK, but brings to the forefront a multitude of challenges including concerns over cost of acquisition/operation, vehicle range, energy efficiency, suitability of infrastructure (both civil and energy) to respond to the growing demand, how to account for blockages due to social acceptance, policy conflicts and effective management of future waste streams. It is in this context that the current Prosperity Partnership brings together a multi-disciplinary team encompassing Queen's University Belfast and Wrightbus to deliver a comprehensive understanding of the challenges arising from introducing next generation zero net emissions (ZNE) buses into the public transport sector. In a climate of rapid innovation, a detailed understanding of both the short- and long-term technology risks and opportunities is key to successful exploitation. The proposed research aims to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of development in the next, and future, generations of energy efficient bus technologies. The research will focus on four key, highly integrated challenges: 1. There is no consensus on an optimal zero net emissions vehicle technology in the bus sector, with significant challenges in developing powertrain technologies which maximise the fuel/emissions/range/load factor efficiencies while maintaining pace with advancements in health monitoring and autonomy. With sector specific challenges, the bus industry is lagging behind the passenger car sector but will play a critical role in underpinning the next generation low carbon economy.2. Next generation vehicles will need to be increasingly resilient to variations in energy consumption, not only at the vehicle level to mitigate range anxiety, where energy consumption will vary considerably as a function of route driven, but also across fleets, where enhanced understanding of the lifecycle energy requirements and waste streams will contribute to future enhanced energy efficiency and security.3. As buses become increasingly more advanced, there are opportunities to not only improve the design of the vehicle, but also how it integrates with infrastructure, moving towards the next generation of Smart Cities. Drive-by monitoring and inductive charging of infrastructure sensors will enable greater understanding of how our transport systems impact on the state of health of our infrastructure, and to understand how added value from our bus networks can be secured through vehicle-based monitoring protocols. 4. There is uncertainty across the sector in how emerging policy can account for extra-technological dimensions; for example, societal impacts, legitimacy, cultural norms, and economic opportunities. There is a need to integrate these societal dimensions with technological innovation as part of the mapping and governance of transition pathways.