DMS-EPSRC Sharp Large Deviation Estimates of Fluctuations in Stochastic Hydrodynamic Systems

极端事件可能会产生很大的影响。它们通常是罕见的，这是幸运的，如果它们的后果对社会是负面的，但也使它们难以预测。这个项目的范围是开发计算工具，这些工具可以用来了解极端事件如何在复杂的随机系统中发生。例如，预报热带风暴和洪水等与极端天气有关的事件的模型，以及在发生海洋石油泄漏时污染物的扩散。我们的工具将使研究人员能够提出目前可能提出的问题。这将导致对当前预测模型的革命性改进，这对有效管理自然灾害和人为灾害至关重要。进一步的应用包括描述随机模型中的极端事件，这些模型的行为类似于流体，例如在流行病、交通和恒星形成的背景下。

Extreme events can be highly impactful. They are typically rare, which is fortunate if their consequences are negative on society, but also makes them difficult to predict. The scope of this project is to develop computational tools that can be applied to gain understanding of how extreme events occur in complex stochastic systems. Examples are models for the forecasting of extreme weather-related events like tropical storms and flooding as well as the spread of pollutants in case of ocean oil spills. Our tools will enable researchers to ask questions beyond of what is currently possible. This will lead to transformative improvement of current predictive models, which is essential for efficient management of natural and man made disasters. Further applications include the characterization of extreme events in stochastic models that behave similar to fluids, for example in the context of epidemics, traffic, and star formation.