COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown

目前的新冠肺炎疫情已经导致整个国家封锁，对人们的生活和经济产生了巨大影响。当然，人们对这种封锁的效率有多大，以及对我们的国家将如何减少社会疏远措施并最终恢复正常的兴趣与日俱增。我们建议通过使用尖端的新冠肺炎在英国传播的流行病学模型来回答其中一些问题，使用人口普查数据来准确建模英国人口的典型行为，然后将其与英国国民健康保险制度、英国公共卫生署和英国国家统计局日益可用的数据相结合，这些数据将有助于我们对新冠肺炎在我们社区的传播进行建模。然后将探索这些模式，以设计基于关闭公共和商业场馆或关闭交通连接的最佳缓解战略，以及通过重新开放这些场馆或逐步恢复公共交通来解除封锁的退出战略。这些策略将经常根据日常数据进行调整。我们由此产生的模型和控制策略将在一个专门的网站上公开提供，该网站将随着新数据的出现而频繁更新。

The current COVID-19 pandemic has caused whole countries to lockdown, with a huge effect on people's lives and in the economy. Naturally, there are questions about how efficient this lockdown is, and increasing interest in how our country will reduce social distancing measures and eventually go back to normal. We propose to answer some of these questions by using cutting edge epidemiological models for the spread of COVID-19 in the UK using census data to model the typical behaviour of the UK population accurately and then combining this with the increasingly available data from the NHS, PHE and the ONS, which will help us model the spread of COVID-19 in our communities. These models will then be explored in order to design an optimal mitigation strategy based on closing public and commercial venues, or shutting down transport links, and an exit strategy from our lockdown, which will be achieved by reopening such venues or gradually restoring public transports. These strategies will be adapted frequently in response to daily data. Our resulting models and control strategy will be publicly available on a dedicated website, which will be updated frequently as new data becomes available.