Integration of low-carbon hydrogen value chains for hard-to-decarbonise sectors with wider energy systems: Whole-systems modelling and optimisation

在英国到2050年实现净零的转变中，低碳氢能发挥着至关重要的作用，它可以补充可再生电力，并为难以脱碳的行业提供一种替代的低碳能源。为了启动蓬勃发展的低碳氢气经济，英国政府设定了到2030年氢气产能为5千兆瓦的目标。这将需要迅速和大规模地部署发电能力，支持将氢气输送到最终用途的基础设施，并增加对氢气的需求。将能源密集型行业转换为低碳氢气有助于加快氢气的吸收，并提供可靠的需求，以吸引生产商进入市场。这也是减少二氧化碳排放的最大机会：每使用一吨氢气，重工业可以减少的二氧化碳大约是其他行业的4倍。一旦市场建立起来，这可能会渗透到其他行业，如建筑和交通的供暖，特别是长途和重型行业，这些领域不太适合电池汽车，从而帮助英国迈向净零。将能源密集型行业转向氢气是将氢气整合到整个能源体系的有效方式。这个项目将调查如何做到这一点：系统需求是什么，以及这样做的好处和影响。首先，我们将通过建立高保真的数学模型，以炼钢为例，通过建立这些过程的高保真数学模型，了解如果能源密集型行业改用氢气，它们将在技术、经济和环境方面表现如何，并以一种名为直接还原铁结合电弧炉的过程为例。这些将与炼钢的其他脱碳选择进行比较，例如提高效率、采用碳捕获、储存和利用技术进行改造，以及使用替代还原剂和燃料(如生物质)。然后，我们将探索将这些过程和价值链整合到更广泛的能源系统中的影响。这需要一种全系统建模方法，对整个系统的规划、设计和运行进行优化。该模型包括可能的技术、基础设施和资源的表示，并确定这些技术和基础设施的最佳组合(部署什么技术和基础设施，在何时何地部署，以及如何在一段时间内运行它们)，以满足对能源服务和产品的需求，同时满足约束条件(例如，环境)，以最大限度地减少总体性能标准(例如，总成本或温室气体排放)。我们将使用全系统模型来回答以下问题1。英国能为钢铁行业生产足够的低碳氢气吗？绿色氢气和蓝色氢气的最佳组合是什么，才能将成本和环境影响降至最低？将需要多少可再生能源？2.如何增加对低碳氢气的需求，技术在实现实现目标所需的生产水平方面可以发挥什么作用？氢价值链将如何发展和扩大？3.一旦钢铁等能源密集型行业使用氢气进行脱碳，接下来应该对哪些行业进行脱碳？4.对电网和更广泛的能源系统有什么影响？将需要多少储能能力？以什么形式？5.从一开始就发展高度一体化的产业集群，并通过建立更多集群并将它们连接起来来扩大网络的成本和好处是什么，而不是在全国范围内发展一体化程度较低的网络，然后逐渐提高它们的集成度？6.可以制定哪些市场框架和政策来确保低碳氢气生产的钢铁以及其他产品和能源服务在当地和国际上都具有经济竞争力？

Low-carbon hydrogen has a crucial part to play in the UK's transition to net zero by 2050, complementing renewable electricity, and providing an alternative low-carbon energy source for sectors that are difficult to decarbonise. To kickstart a thriving low-carbon hydrogen economy, the UK Government has set a target capacity of 5 GW of hydrogen by 2030. This will require a rapid and large-scale deployment of generation capacity, infrastructures to support the delivery of the hydrogen to its end uses, and growing its demands. Switching energy-intensive industries to low-carbon hydrogen could help accelerate its uptake and provide a reliable demand to entice producers into the market. This is also the largest opportunity for reducing CO2 emissions: per tonne of hydrogen used, heavy industry can abate about 4 times as much CO2 as other sectors. Once the market has been established, this could trickle down to other sectors, such as heating in buildings and transport, particularly long distance and heavy duty, where battery vehicles are not well suited, helping to progress the UK towards net zero.Switching energy-intensive industries to hydrogen is an effective way of integrating hydrogen into the whole energy system. This project will investigate how this can be done: what the system requirements are as well as the benefits and impacts of doing so. First, we will understand how energy-intensive industries will perform technically, economically and environmentally if they switch to hydrogen, using steelmaking as an exemplar with a process known as Direct Reduction of Iron combined with Electric Arc Furnace, by building high-fidelity mathematical models of these processes. These will be compared with other decarbonisation options for steelmaking, such as efficiency improvements, retrofitting with carbon capture, storage and utilisation technologies, and using alternative reductants and fuels such as biomass.We will then explore the implications of integrating these processes and the value chains for supplying low-carbon hydrogen into the wider energy system. This requires a whole-system modelling approach that uses optimisation for the planning, design and operation of the overall system. The model includes a representation of the possible technologies, infrastructures and resources, and determines the optimal combination of these (what technologies and infrastructures to deploy, where and when, and how to operate them over time) in order to satisfy the demands for energy services and products, while satisfying constraints (e.g. environmental), to minimise an overall performance criterion (e.g. total costs or GHG emissions). We will use the whole-system model to answer the following questions.1. Can sufficient low-carbon hydrogen be produced in the UK for the steel industry? What is the optimal mix of green and blue hydrogen to minimise costs and environmental impacts? How much renewable energy will be needed?2. How to ramp up demands in low-carbon hydrogen and what are the roles that technologies could play in achieving the levels of production needed to meet the targets? How will the hydrogen value chains develop and expand?3. Once the energy-intensive industries, such as steel, have been decarbonised using hydrogen, which sectors should be decarbonised next?4. What are the impacts on the electricity network and the wider energy system? How much energy storage capacity will be needed and in what form?5. What are the costs and benefits of developing highly integrated industrial clusters from the start, and expanding the network by building more clusters and linking them, as opposed to developing less-integrated networks nationally and then gradually increasing their integration?6. What market frameworks and policies can be put in place to ensure that steel, and other products and energy services, produced from low-carbon hydrogen will be economically competitive, locally and internationally?