(MISMATCH) Skills Mismatch: Sources and Consequences

技能不匹配-定义为工人的能力和工作技能要求之间的差异-无处不在，并与长期的工资惩罚有关。技能错配的根源是什么？如何减轻其对工人的不利影响？这项建议旨在增进我们对这两个关于两个互补链中的技能不匹配的问题的理解。第一条重点是工人职业生涯开始时的技能不匹配。这项研究将在微观层面上识别和比较不同错配来源(能力、工作特征和心理约束的不确定性)的相对重要性，以便对个人进行早期干预，从而有助于减少错配带来的不利后果。分析将运用随机对照试验(RCT)、简化形式和结构建模技术相结合的方法来(I)联合分析关于工作的能力、金钱和非金钱方面的信念对职业选择的作用和过程，以及(Ii)确定在职业生涯的早期阶段影响不匹配的来源和机制的相对重要性。第二条线集中于分析宏观层面的综合因素--例如工作机会分布的变化--这些因素可能会影响工人在任何职业阶段的工作分配。最近新冠肺炎疫情带来的全球冲击和日益增长的技术变革要求对这些问题进行更深入的评估，因为它们可能会导致工作机会分布(特征和匹配质量)发生巨大变化，并导致技能和经验分布的不平等影响。使用RCT、在线招聘信息和匹配的雇主-雇员数据，我们将研究(I)信念的作用，以及由于不匹配大流行而导致的工作特征分布的变化，以及(Ii)公司技术变化对工作-工作分配不平等影响的驱动因素。

Skills mismatch - defined as the discrepancy between worker's abilities and job skill requirements - it is ubiquitous and associated with long lasting wage penalties. What are the sources of skills mismatch and how to mitigate its adverse consequences on workers? This proposal seeks to advance our understanding of these two questions concerning skills mismatch in two complementary strands. The first strand focuses on skills mismatch at the onset of workers' careers. The research will identify and compare the relative importance of various sources of mismatching at the micro level (uncertainties about abilities, job characteristics and psychological constraints), so that early interventions on individuals may help reduce the unfavorable consequences of mismatches. The analysis will apply the combined approaches of randomized controlled trials (RCT), reduced form, and structural modeling techniques to (i) jointly analyze the roles and processes of beliefs about abilities, pecuniary and non-pecuniary aspects of jobs on occupational choices, and (ii) identify the relative importance of the sources and mechanisms affecting mismatching at the early stages of careers. The second strand concentrates on analyzing aggregate factors at the macro level - such as changes in the distribution of job offers - which could affect worker-job allocations at any career stages. The recent global shock from the Covid-19 pandemic and the growing technological transformation call for a deeper assessment of the issues as they are likely to cause drastic changes in job offer distributions (characteristics and matching quality) and result in unequal impacts across skill and experience distributions. Using the RCT, online job postings, and matched employer-employee data, we will study (i) the roles of beliefs, and changes in job characteristic distribution due to the pandemic on mismatching, and (ii) the drivers of the unequal impacts of changes in firms' technologies on work-job allocations.