The Labour Market Implications of Changes in the Public Sector: Inequality and Work Quality

作为其财政整顿计划的一部分，联合政府宣布打算促进经济从公共部门活动向私营部门活动的根本转变。鉴于2009年公共部门雇用的工人刚刚超过600万，公共部门的薪酬占所有政府支出的近31%，政府将减少公共部门的规模，特别是公共部门的薪酬账单规模视为实现其减少结构性赤字规模的计划的关键优先事项，这并不奇怪。作为其财政整顿政策的一部分，政府宣布在2010年冻结公共部门的工资两年，随后将在2015年之前将公共部门的工资再提高1%。当局亦已要求薪酬检讨机构就公营部门大部分员工的薪酬建议，考虑公营部门薪酬的本地差异。预算责任办公室最近估计，削减公共开支可能导致公共部门直接失业约71万人。此外，其他评论员估计，公共部门削减开支的溢出效应或间接效应可能导致私营部门增加50多万个就业机会。虽然人们普遍认为，目前的支出计划可能会对英国经济产生重大的结构性影响，但迄今为止，很少有研究表明，削减公共支出可能会对劳动力市场产生什么影响。这项研究开始解决其中一些问题，并考虑削减赤字方案对两个主要围绕劳动力市场不平等和工作质量的研究主题的影响。在第一个主题-劳动力市场平等-范围内，将利用《劳动力季刊》、《年度人口调查》和《了解社会》的数据处理下列问题：（a）削减开支如何影响不同群体的个人跨越劳动力市场的不同界限（即公共和私营部门就业、失业和经济活动不活跃）的流动，这些流动对主要劳动力市场加班总量的变化有何影响？(b)从公共部门失业到私营部门工作的工人的工资会发生什么变化？在这个过程中，“赢家”和“输家”的特点是什么？(c)公共部门的失业和对工资增长的限制对不同平等群体之间的工资差异有什么影响，特别是那些可能受益于公共部门就业所提供的保护的群体？(d)公共部门的失业和薪酬限制的后果在不同地区之间有何不同？对地区间工资和经济繁荣差异的可能影响是什么？(e)最近关于公共/私营部门工资差异的地方差异的证据有多强有力，公共/私营部门薪酬的区域间差异在工资分配和公共部门不同部分之间有何不同？在第二个主题“工作质量”中，重点是公共部门工作的一系列更广泛的内在奖励（例如工作控制、工作压力、工作满意度和工人福利），而不是工资等外在奖励。分析将以经济、社会和文化权利委员会主办的技能和就业调查为基础，并将解决两个具体问题：（a）公共部门工作的内在质量在多大程度上优于或劣于私营部门？(b)经济衰退和赤字削减计划在多大程度上缩小或扩大了公共和私营部门之间的工作质量差异？

SummaryAs part of their fiscal consolidation plans the Coalition Government has announced its intention to promote a fundamental shift in the economy away from public to private sector activities. Given that in 2009 just over 6 million workers were employed in the public sector and public sector pay accounted for almost 31 percent of all government expenditure, it is hardly surprising that the government sees a reduction in the size of the public sector, and in particular in the size of the public sector pay bill, as a key priority in meeting their plans to reduce the scale of the structural deficit. As part of its policy of fiscal consolidation the Government announced a two year pay freeze on public sector pay in 2010, which will be followed by a further 1 percent annual cap on public sector pay until 2015. Pay Review bodies that recommend pay awards for a large proportion of workers in the public sector have also been asked to consider local variations in public sector pay rates. The Office for Budget Responsibility has recently estimated that cuts in public spending are likely to result in direct job losses in the public sector of around 710,000. In addition other commentators have estimated that spill-over, or indirect, effects of public sector spending cuts are likely to result in over half a million additional jobs being lost in the private sector. Although it is generally agreed that current expenditure plans are likely to have major structural implications for the UK economy there has been little research undertaken to date on what the labour market consequences of these cuts in public spending are likely to be. This research begins to address some of these issues and considers the effects of the deficit reduction programme on two themes of research broadly based around labour market inequality and work quality. Within the first theme, labour market equality, the following questions will be addressed using data from the Quarterly Labour Force; the Annual Population Survey; and Understanding Society:(a) How do the spending cuts effect the movement of different groups of individuals across different boundaries in the labour market (i.e. public and private sector employment, unemployment and economics inactivity) and what are the implications of these movements for changes in the main labour market aggregates overtime?(b) What happens to the wages of workers displaced from the public sector that find work in the private sector, and what are the characteristics of the 'gainers' and 'losers' in this process?(c) What are the implications of job losses and restrictions on pay growth in the public sector for wage differences between different equality groups, particularly those who may have benefited from the protection afforded to them by employment in the public sector?(d) How do the consequences of job losses and pay restrictions in the public sector vary between regions and what are the likely implications for inter-regional differences in wages and economic prosperity? (e) How robust is the recent evidence relating to local variations in the public/private sector wage differential and how do inter-regional variations in public/private sector pay vary over the wage distribution and across different parts of the public sector?Within the second theme, work quality, the focus is on a wider set of intrinsic rewards to work in the public sector (e.g. job control, work pressure, job satisfaction and worker wellbeing) rather than on extrinsic rewards such as pay. The analysis will be based on the ESRC sponsored Skills and Employment Surveys and will address two specific questions:(a) To what extent is the intrinsic quality of work in the public sector better or worse in the public sector compared to the private sector?(b) To what extent has the recession and deficit reduction programme narrowed or widened these work quality differences between the public and private sectors?