INCENSE - Influencing Policy and Practice by Stimulating Public Debate about Census Data

英国人口普查数据将从2012年7月开始逐步公布。现有的数据库载有1951年以来的人口普查答复。收集人口普查数据的主要目的是为社会政策提供信息，特别是使中央和地方政府、卫生当局（和其他方面）能够有效地确定资源目标，并在规划住房、教育、卫生和交通服务时积极主动。在这里，我们将重点关注：人口变化对种族的影响；宗教;以及与人口老龄化有关的健康问题。该提案是国家统计办公室数据可视化中心和达勒姆大学SMART中心之间的合作。我们建议以混搭的方式展示人口普查数据——包括多元数据和评论（如报纸文章）的交互式展示，使用SMART和ONS已经创建的展示。这些显示的一个关键特点是，用户可以自己探索复杂的数据，可以对所提供的评论形成自己的观点，并可以向论坛贡献见解、分析和意见。我们将以各种方式促进记者、政界人士和公民使用这些互动显示器——通过提供可嵌入网站并以电子方式传播的免费应用程序，以及通过个人联系、讲习班、研讨会和新闻稿。研究的重点是影响：利用这些资源的程度和性质，以及这种利用的后果。我们将通过谷歌分析和Twitter上的标签等应用程序跟踪资源的使用情况，并将通过计数（网站点击量、政策文件和报纸中的引用）和对数据的解释（记录概念、误解以及使用相同的数据集来支持不同政治领域的政治论点）来分析影响。几乎没有研究（在我们小组之外）能让不懂统计的人理解多变量数据。我们的研究表明，naïve在学校和大学（13-18岁）的用户可以从多元数据中得出明智的结论，并且可以在没有正式培训的情况下阐明诸如互动和效应大小之类的想法。该提案将探讨公民和利益相关者在不受约束的环境中的统计推理。我们期望这项研究能产生重大的政治、理论和实践影响。我们期望通过在决策过程中增加证据的使用，并通过授权一些游说者（特别是“数据驱动的新闻”运动），对政治进程产生影响。我们将为记者的统计知识做出贡献。我们预计许多选民将获得更好的信息，并能够更好地理解复杂的证据（我们希望不那么直接地提高公众对社会科学价值的认识）。我们期待对政治影响过程的理论见解；进入从复杂证据中得出结论的认知过程（既要理解，也要证明先前存在的信念）。我们预计在更好地沟通多元数据的方式、界面设计的某些方面的经验教训以及发展良好的机制来影响政策和实践方面的实际结果。几乎可以肯定的是，新媒体将会出现（如Facebook），试图影响政府政策的新方法也会出现（如38度）。我们将灵活应对。国家统计局的直接参与应确保研究成果在项目结束后仍然有用；我们还将与Getstats合作，这是一项为期10年的RSS倡议，旨在提高公民的统计素养，并与其他具有相同使命的组织合作。

The UK census data will be released progressively from July 2012. There is an existing database of census responses from 1951 onwards. Census data are collected primarily to inform social policy - in particular to allow central and local government, health authorities (and others) to target resources effectively and to be proactive when planning housing, education, health and transport services. Here, we will focus on: the implications of demographic changes in ethnicity; religion; and health problems associated with an ageing population.This proposal is a collaboration between the Data Visualisation Centre of the Office for National Statistics and the SMART Centre at Durham University. We propose to present census data in mash-ups - interactive displays that comprise multivariate data and commentaries (such as newspaper articles) using displays that have already been created by SMART and the ONS. A key feature of these displays is that users can explore complex data for themselves, and can form their own opinions about the commentaries that are offered, and can contribute insights, analyses and opinions to forums. We will promote the use of these interactive displays by journalists, politicians and citizens in a variety of ways - via the provision of free applications that can be embedded in websites, and circulated electronically, and via personal contacts, workshops, seminars, and press releases.The research focuses on impact: the extent and nature of the use of these resources, and the consequences of this use. We will track resource use via applications such as Google analytics and hashtags on Twitter, and will analyse impact via counts (website hits, citations in policy documents and newspapers), and in terms of the interpretations made of the data (documenting conceptions, misconceptions, and the use of the same data set to support political arguments across the political spectrum). There is almost no research (outside our group) into ways that multivariate data can be understood by people who are statistically naive. Our research shows that naïve users at school and in colleges (aged 13-18 years) can draw sensible conclusions from multivariate data - and can articulate ideas such as interaction and effect size without formal training. This proposal will explore statistical reasoning by citizens and stakeholders in unconstrained environments.We expect the research to have major political, theoretical and practical consequences. We anticipate having an impact on the political process by increasing the use of evidence in decision making, and by empowering some lobbyists (notably, the 'data driven journalism' movement). We will contribute to the statistical sophistication of journalists. We anticipate that many voters will be better informed, and better able to understand complex evidence (less directly, we hope to increase public perceptions of the value of social science). We anticipate theoretical insights into the processes of political influence; into the cognitive processes of drawing conclusions from complex evidence (both to understand, and to justify pre-existing beliefs). We anticipate practical consequences in terms of ways to communicate multivariate data better, lessons for some aspects of interface design, and in terms of developing well honed mechanisms to influence policy and practice. It is almost certain that new media will emerge (c.f. Facebook) as will new ways of attempting to influence government policy (c.f. 38 degrees). We will respond flexibly. The direct involvement of ONS should ensure that research findings are useful beyond the life of the project; we will also work with Getstats, a major 10 year RSS initiative designed to improve the statistical literacy of citizens, and other groups which share the same mission.