The Political Effects of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles on Conflict and Cooperation within and between States

该项目将研究最近和正在进行的科学和技术（无人机）发展对部署无人机的国家的冲突与合作前景的影响。在过去十年中，美国和英国使用武装和非武装无人驾驶航空器（无人机/无人机）的数量急剧增加。从一系列公开来源汇编的汇总数据表明，迄今为止，对敌方目标进行了1 300多次袭击，造成近3 000名叛乱分子和近500名平民死亡。从干预国家的Vantage地位来看，这些统计数据被辩护为对敌军事胜利的标志。然而，从这些打击目标的角度来看--使用无人机远非减少叛乱和恐怖主义的风险--每一次打击都有理由大幅增加对美国/英国军队的暴力水平。对无人机袭击的政治影响的这些相互冲突的评估只能在文化误解的背景下理解;对于干预方来说，无人机代表着西方干预力量风险逐步降低的最新表现，而对于受无人机打击影响的民众来说，它们代表着西方傲慢、技术傲慢、无懈可击和排外主义信仰和价值观的不可接受的组合。因此，不同的价值观、信仰体系、叙述和历史背景导致了对美英无人机袭击是增加还是减少干预行动者和目标行动者安全的根本不同的解释。然而，提出这些主张和反主张所依据的证据存在很大争议，而且很少对数据进行系统的比较分析。该项目旨在纠正这一数据的缺乏，并在这样做的回应，ESRC/AHRC-Dstl科学和安全呼吁的一部分，其重点是“提高我们的能力，利用科技发展，以增加合作和协作，作为预防未来冲突的一种手段。因此，研究将在比较的背景下调查如何使用无人机的冲突的看法形状的冲突和合作的倾向，无论是在渗透国的领土内和干预国和国家之间的无人机是在其中操作。为了了解如何冲突的看法科技是由文化背景塑造，为了探索无人机的使用在多大程度上产生了导致冲突增加的文化误解的新空间，该项目采用了一个植根于认知，情感，以及在政治行动和决策背景下构建历史叙事。通过利用这一框架，项目小组将调查无人机的使用是否建立和/或进一步加强了产生和重现暴力冲突的叙述。或者，它是否为谈判缓解和结束冲突开辟了新的空间？因此，项目组将寻求解决以下主要研究问题：一国在另一行为体领土上使用无人机是否会增加或减少这些行为体内部和之间的冲突与合作倾向？我们将以阿富汗、巴基斯坦、也门和索马里的案例为重点，采用访谈、焦点小组、文献综述和开源数据分析等主要研究方法，进行系统的比较案例研究。该项目将产生大量成果，包括案例研究简报和参考期刊上的文章。这些将构成我们影响战略的实质性基础的一部分，该战略旨在促进英国和国际无人机政策的形成，该政策在促进安全方面是法律的、道德的、合法的和有效的。

This project will examine the impact of a recent and on-going development in science and technology (drones) on prospects for conflict and cooperation in countries where drones are deployed. The use of armed and unarmed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs/drones) by the United States and the United Kingdom has dramatically increased over the past decade. Aggregate data compiled from a range of open-access sources suggests that over 1,300 strikes have been carried out to date against enemy targets, killing almost 3,000 insurgents and nearly 500 civilians. From the vantage point of the intervening states, these statistics are defended as markers of military success against enemy. However, from the perspective of the targets of these strikes - far from the use of drones reducing the risks of insurgency and terrorism - each strike justifies substantially increasing the level of violence against US/UK forces. These clashing assessments of the political effects of drone strikes can only be understood in a context of cultural misunderstandings; for the intervening side, drones represent the latest manifestation of progressive reduction of risk to Western intervening forces while for the populations affected by drone strikes, they represent the unacceptable combination of Western arrogance, technological hubris, invulnerability, and exclusivist beliefs and values.Consequently, different values, belief systems, narratives, and historical contexts lead to radically different interpretations of whether US/UK drone strikes are increasing or decreasing the security of both the intervening and targeted actors. Yet, the evidence on which these claims and counter-claims are being made is highly contested, and there is very little systematic comparative analysis of the data. This project seeks to rectify this lack of data and in so doing responds to that part of the ESRC/AHRC-Dstl Science and Security call which focuses on 'Improving our ability to use S&T developments to increase co-operation and collaboration as a means of preventing future conflict'. Consequently, research will investigate in a comparative context how conflicting perceptions of the use of drones shapes the propensities for conflict and cooperation both within the territory of the penetrated state and between the intervening state and the state in which the drones are operating.To understand how conflicting perceptions of S&T are shaped by cultural context, and to explore how far the use of drones has generated new spaces of cultural misunderstanding leading to increased conflict, the project adopts an interdisciplinary theoretical framework rooted in the study of cognition, emotions, and the construction of historical narratives in the context of political action and decision-making. By utilising this framework, the project team will investigate whether the use of drones has established and/or further strengthened narratives which produce and reproduce violent conflict. Or alternatively, has it opened up new spaces for negotiations to mitigate and end conflicts? Thus, the project team will seek to address the following primary research question: Does the use of drones by a state on the territory of another actor increase or decrease the propensities for conflict and cooperation both within and between these actors?Focusing on the cases of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia we will conduct systematic comparative case study research, utilising interviews, focus groups, literature review and open-source data analysis as our principle research methods.The project will produce a number of outputs, including case study briefing papers and articles in refereed journals. These will form part of the substantive basis of our impact strategy that seeks to contribute to the shaping of a UK and international drone policy that is legal, ethical, legitimate, and effective in promoting security.