SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT: A CRUCIAL POINT FOR THE COUNTRY: A CRUCIAL TEST CASE FOR COMPARATIVE POLITICS

埃及当前的政治动态对该国乃至整个中东地区的稳定至关重要。埃及不仅是人口最多、文化最具影响力的阿拉伯国家，其民主的成功（及其转型模式或失败）将对整个地区产生强大的扩散效应。它也是该地区稳定的基石，是第一个与以色列签署和平条约的阿拉伯国家。在反对穆尔西统治的大规模公众抗议之后，埃及军队罢免了穆尔西总统，这对埃及公民的民主承诺、埃及民主的未来、以及埃及内外“选举伊斯兰主义”的未来提出了深刻的问题。在这个国家政治过渡的关键时刻，迫切需要收集有关埃及公众舆论的数据，以便解决这些问题。在2011年的议会选举之后，由申请人进行的一项私人资助的公民调查得出了与当前政治局势密切相关的三个结果。首先，埃及公众舆论似乎压倒性地支持民主，认为民主是治理国家的最佳方式。其次，不同党派的支持者之间的分歧很小。然而，当时公众舆论的第三个特点清楚地说明了该国目前民主十字路口的性质。总的来说，我们发现对“守护军”的支持程度非常高，包括大多数穆斯林兄弟会的支持者。很明显——这是我们打算调查的一系列问题的核心——埃及的公众舆论和政党代表现在无法维持2011年的路线。但是，我们要问，它们向哪个方向断裂？从一个角度来看，这可能是许多埃及人放弃他们在2011年革命期间所呼吁的民主原则的时刻（权力通过选举转移，军队远离政治，对人权的尊重是普遍的，甚至对那些可能被某些人视为伊斯兰极端分子的人也是如此）。从另一个角度来看，数百万走上街头要求穆尔西辞职的人，实际上似乎是在以一种不受呼吁选举、开展竞选活动、投票和宣布结果等形式限制的形式，申请对民主的支持。这些问题的答案对这个国家的民主未来、治理能力以及“选举伊斯兰主义”的未来至关重要。因此，我们将对埃及公众进行两项进一步的大规模调查——一项将立即进行，并确保有可能进行实地调查，另一项将在选举进行时进行——以调查自伊斯兰主义者赢得立法和总统选举以来态度的变化。鉴于我们的项目将为一系列用户社区（英国和国际上的政府、企业、非政府组织和意见领袖）提供的知识具有广泛的政治和经济重要性，我们将参与尽可能广泛的传播和外展活动，并产生一个独特的、可公开访问的数据集，这可能是埃及进一步调查研究的基础和锚点。

The current political dynamics in Egypt are of huge importance to the stability of the country and the Middle East as a whole. Egypt is not just the most populous and culturally the most influential Arab country, whose success as a democracy (and its mode of transition or failure) would have powerful diffusion effects across the region. It is also a cornerstone for stability in the region, having been the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The removal of President Morsi by the Egyptian Army following mass public protests against his rule raises profound questions about the democratic commitments of Egyptian citizens, the future of democracy in Egypt, and the future of 'electoral Islamism', both in Egypt and beyond. There is an urgent need to collect data on Egyptian public opinion at this crucial point in the country's political transition in order to address these questions. Immediately following the parliamentary elections of 2011, a privately funded survey of citizens conducted by the applicants produced three results of great relevance to the present political situation. First, Egyptian public opinion appeared overwhelmingly supportive of democracy as the best way of running the country. Second, differences between supporters of different parties were minimal. A third feature of public opinion at that time, however, illustrated clearly the nature of the country's current democratic cross-roads. Overall, we found very strong levels of support for a 'guardian army', including among a majority of Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Clearly - and this is the nub of the set of issues we propose to investigate - Egyptian public opinion and party representation cannot now hold on the lines of 2011. But, we ask, in what directions are they breaking? From one angle, this may be the moment at which many Egyptians give up a belief in the very democratic principles they called for during the 2011 revolution (that power is transferred through elections, that the military keeps out of politics, that respect for human rights is universal even for those whom some might see as Islamist extremists). From a different angle, the several millions who took to the streets to call for Morsi to resign seemed to be applying, in effect, support for democracy in a format not restricted by the formalities of calling for elections, running a campaign, casting votes and announcing results. The answers are crucial to the democratic future and governability of the country and for the future of 'electoral Islamism'. Consequently, we will conduct two further mass surveys of the Egyptian public - one to be conducted immediately funding and is assured and fieldwork possible, a second to be conducted when elections take place - to investigate how attitudes have changed since the period when Islamists won legislative and presidential elections. Given the broad political and economic importance of the knowledge that our project will produce for a range of user communities - governments, businesses, NGOs, and opinion leaders in the UK and internationally - we will engage in the widest possible dissemination and outreach activities and produce a unique and publicly accessible data set that may be the basis and anchor for further survey research in Egypt.