Constraints on the Design of Security Policy: Insights from Audience Costs Theory and Security and Defence Elites in the United Kingdom

本项目旨在解释安全政策是如何在英国发展的，并建议如何改善不同安全和国防机构之间的关系。安全政策保护一个民族国家的边界及其公民的安全，包括军事、经济、环境和网络安全政策。这些政策由不同的机构设计和实施，包括军事组织、情报界和政府部门，如内阁府和国防部。我们生活在一个快节奏的世界，安全威胁可能出乎意料地来自叙利亚政府等国家行为体，或恐怖组织等非国家行为体。在这种迅速变化的安全环境中，制定具有足够灵活性的国家安全政策以增加成功的可能性是至关重要的。重要的限制可能会阻碍这种灵活性需求。其中一个限制是，安全和防务界的成员可能担心，如果他们未能实施之前承诺实施的安全政策，就会失去支持，显得无能，或损害其机构的声誉。这可以使他们对大幅修改安全策略保持警惕，即使面对重要的环境变化，例如预算削减或出现有关其实现的预期有效性的新信息。这种对国内反弹的担忧可能是美国军队继续组建伊拉克安全部队的原因之一，尽管有令人信服的证据表明，这些部队实际上助长了宗派冲突。本研究的第一部分将外交政策决策理论与在重要政府部门和军事组织实习期间培养的高级从业人员的实际经验相结合。申请人将采访英国安全和防务界的精英成员，涉及安全政策的设计和实施。尽管访谈将与来自英国的安全和防务社区的成员进行，但该理论将与描述全球安全政策的发展有关。在本研究的第二部分，将使用创新的实验技术来检验这一理论，以便对民主国家安全政策的形成进行详细的、基于经验的探索。安全和防务界的成员将被邀请参加在线调查实验。他们将读到一场假想的国际安全危机，一项最初由英国政府机构提出的政策，以及该机构在执行该政策时是否一贯或不一贯。然后，他们将回答有关他们是否愿意支持他们所读到的机构的行为的问题。所有参与者的答案将被分析，以确定当涉及到安全策略的设计和实施时，不一致的行为是否会受到惩罚。在整个研究期间，将与安全和防务界的成员交换知识。这将在本研究的第三部分，也是最后一部分达到高潮。调查结果将提交给在英国设计和实施安全政策的机构，因此每个机构都可以更多地了解其他机构的运作方式以及他们如何看待彼此。同时，申请人将组织为期两天的从业者工作坊。在这里，安全和防务界的成员、非政府组织等更广泛的民间社会的成员以及媒体和压力团体的代表将讨论不直接参与安全政策的行为者如何在间接形成安全政策方面发挥作用。

This project seeks to explain how security policy is developed in the UK, and suggest how relationships between different security and defence agencies can be improved. Security policies protect the borders of a nation-state and the security of its citizens and include military, economic, environmental and cybersecurity policies. These policies are designed and implemented by different agencies including military organizations, the intelligence community, and government departments such as the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Defence. We live in a fast-paced world where security threats may unexpectedly emerge from state actors such as the Syrian government, or non-state actors such as terrorist organizations. In this rapidly changing security environment it is paramount that national security policies be designed with enough flexibility so as to increase the likelihood of success. Important constraints can hinder this need for flexibility. One such constraint is that members of the security and defence community might fear losing support, appearing as incompetent, or harming the reputation of their agency if they fail to implement a security policy they had previously committed to implementing. This can make them wary of significantly modifying a security policy, even in the face of important environmental changes such as budget cuts or the emergence of new information regarding the predicted effectiveness of its implementation. Such fear of domestic backlash likely played a role in American forces continuing to build up Iraqi security forces, even in the face of compelling evidence that suggested these forces were in fact fuelling sectarian conflict. The first part of this study combines theories of foreign policy decision-making with the real-life experiences of high-level practitioners developed during residencies in key government departments and military organizations. The applicant will interviews elite members of the security and defence community in the UK involved in the design and implementation of security policies. Although the interviews will be carried out with members of the security and defence communities from the UK, the theory will be pertinent to describe the development of security policy globally.In the second part of this study this theory will be tested using innovative experimental techniques to allow a detailed and empirically grounded exploration of the formation of security policy in democracies. Members of the security and defence community will be invited to participate in the online survey experiment. They will read about a hypothetical international security crisis, a policy that was initially proposed by a Whitehall agency, and whether the agency acted consistently or inconsistently regarding its implementation. They will then answer questions about their willingness to support the behaviour of the agency they read about. The answers of all participants will be analysed to determine if inconsistent behaviour is punished when it comes to the design and implementation of security policies. Knowledge will be exchanged with members of the security and defence community during the entire study. This will culminate in the third and final part of this study. Findings will be presented at agencies that design and implement security policy in the UK, so each agency can learn more about how other agencies operate and how they view each other. Also, the applicant will organize a two-day practitioner workshop. Here members of the security and defence community, members of the broader civil society such as non-governmental organizations, and representatives of the media and pressure groups will discuss how actors not directly involved security policy play a role in shaping it indirectly.