Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy

该提案提出了一项新的重大研究方案，将导致重大的科学进步和政策影响。在该中心和IFS开发的专业知识的基础上，我们将利用计量经济学技术和数据可用性的发展，包括关联调查和行政数据，推动我们的研究议程朝着令人兴奋的新方向发展。工作的重点将是：-消费者和市场。我们将使用行为经济学的见解和稳健的方法来理解家庭内部的行为，我们将探索政府政策，企业行为和消费者结果之间的关系。这项工作有可能改变我们对政策干预影响的理解，这些政策干预要么改变消费者购买商品的相对价格（例如对酒精，绿色税，糖税），要么试图改变消费者的偏好（例如通过信息活动或限制广告）。不平等、风险和保险。理解不平等的决定因素是我们议程的核心。我们将专注于理解整个生命周期和跨代和代内的不平等。我们将探讨住房、保险以及市场和非市场机制在管理风险和不确定性方面的作用。与现有调查相关联的新的行政数据的可用性将使我们能够研究不平等的动态和替代政策的影响。特别是，我们将重点关注财富和遗赠在年轻一代中产生队列内不平等的作用，我们将研究如何在生命周期中解决不确定性，以及这如何影响不同年龄的税收和福利提供的保险程度。公共财政和税收。关注高收入者和跨国公司，我们将利用新获得的数据，从这些重要但风险越来越大的收入来源中揭示英国公共财政的风险。我们还将制定一项工作计划，重点关注中等收入国家税收设计面临的特殊问题。人力资本在生命周期中的演变。我们的目标是在理解从早年到青年的人力资本形成过程方面取得重大进展，人力资本如何在劳动力市场获得回报，它如何与劳动力供应和生产力联系在一起，以及健康和福祉的演变如何与劳动力供应和其他结果相互作用。这些问题错综复杂，我们设想制定一项联合工作方案，为决策者目前面临的一些最重要问题提供新的答案。人们如何就储蓄、营养、教育和劳动力供应作出决定，政府如何影响这些决定？是什么推动了收入不平等的加剧，教育干预以及税收和福利制度如何改善这些不平等，以及代价是什么？政府应该如何应对日益全球化给企业和个人税收带来的压力？是什么推动了养老金储蓄、健康行为和退休决定的决策？面对人口老龄化，政府应该如何设计政策？在回答这些问题时，我们将利用该中心汇集的独特专业知识和数据资源。至关重要的是，我们的意图也是采取一致的方法，我们将在生命过程中模拟个人决策的决定因素和经济参与者之间的相互作用;我们将模拟行为“偏见”和市场摩擦;我们将使用现有数据的组合，随机对照试验和结构模型，不仅要了解政策的效果，还要了解是什么驱动了这种效果，从而可能其他政策的影响;我们将开发新的数据和衡量工具。

This proposal sets out a major new programme of research that will lead to significant scientific progress and policy impact. Building on the expertise developed at the Centre and at IFS, we will use the developments in econometric techniques and data availability, including linked survey and administrative data, to push our research agenda in exciting new directions. The focus of the work will be on:- Consumers and markets. We will use insights from behavioural economics and robust methods to understand within-household behaviour and we will explore the relationships between government policy, firm behaviour and outcomes for consumers. This work has the potential to transform our understanding of the effects of policy interventions that either change the relative prices of the goods consumers buy (e.g. taxes on alcohol, green levies, sugar taxes) or try to change consumers' preferences (e.g. through information campaigns or restrictions on advertising).- Inequality, risk and insurance. Understanding the determinants of inequality is central to our agenda. We will focus on understanding inequality across the life cycle and across and within generations. We will explore the role of housing, of insurance and of market and non-market mechanisms in managing risk and uncertainty. The availability of new administrative data linked to existing surveys will allow us to examine the dynamics of inequality and the impact of alternative policies. In particular, we will focus on the role of wealth and bequests in generating within-cohort inequality among the younger generations and we will investigate how uncertainty is resolved over the life cycle and how this affects the degree of insurance provided by taxes and benefits at different ages.- Public finances and taxation. Focusing on high earners and multinational companies, we will use newly-available data to throw new light on risks to the public finances in the UK from these vital but increasingly risky sources of revenue. We will also develop a programme of work that focuses on the particular issues facing tax design in middle-income countries.- Evolution of human capital over the life cycle. We aim to make major strides in understanding the process of formation of human capital from the early years to young adulthood, how human capital is rewarded in the labour market, how it is linked to labour supply and productivity, and how the evolution of health and well-being interacts with labour supply and other outcomes in later years. These issues are intricately related and we envisage a joined-up programme of work that will provide new answers to some of the most important questions currently facing policymakers. How do people make decisions over savings, nutrition, education and labour supply and how can government influence those decisions? What is driving increased levels of income inequality and how might interventions in education and through the tax and welfare system ameliorate them, and at what cost? How should governments respond to the pressures on corporate and individual tax revenues created by increasing globalisation? What drives decisions over pension savings, health behaviours and retirement decisions and how should governments design policy in the face of an ageing population? In answering these questions, we will make use of the unique expertise and data resources brought together at the Centre. Crucially, our intention is also to take a consistent approach in which we will model the determinants of individual decisions over the life course and the interactions between economic actors; we will model behavioural 'biases' and market frictions; we will use a combination of available data, randomised controlled trials and structural modelling to understand not just the effect of policies but also what drives that effect and hence what might be the effect of other policies; and we will develop new data and measurement tools.