Reshaping Global Capital: The Politics of Uncertainty in China's Financial Transnationalization

在全球金融危机爆发六年后，我们仍然不确定如何可持续、公平地利用全球金融的力量，学者、政策制定者和从业者继续寻求更好地理解相互依存的金融体系中的权威和权力。与此同时，随着中国金融体系的范围和影响力日益跨国性，在香港、伦敦和上海等全球金融秩序的关键地点，关于政治权威和金融权力如何以及应该如何相互关联的新思想正在演变。本项目研究了这一过程的动态和影响，研究了不同的政治价值观如何以及为什么重塑了风险的分配和对全球金融稳定的追求。它集中在两个相互关联的问题上：1。权威和权力的不同概念如何影响金融体系的稳定性和风险分配？中国进入全球金融将如何重塑这些金融结果？这些都是中国在全球政治中崛起的宏观层面和有效金融治理的微观层面的问题，但国际政治经济学家并没有提供足够的工具来解决这些问题。尽管全球主要金融中心的宏观审慎监管有所改善，但我们不断被提醒，金融治理是一个深刻的政治和社会过程，也是一种技术官僚监管的实践。我们需要更好地研究中国金融跨国进程如何影响金融治理的微观动态和宏观转变。这两个层面的动态本质上都是社会政治的，并且涉及政治权威和财政权力之间关系的不同概念。因此，这种“金融概念”是决定公共和私人金融决策者如何应对金融投资和治理不确定性的重要因素。它们不稳定，既经历应对危机的短期变化，也经历随着全球经济结构演变而发生的长期变化。本项目探讨了中国金融跨国化的影响，探讨了在决策的核心过程中，国家、市场和社会之间关系的不同概念（不确定性管理）如何重塑香港、伦敦和上海的金融治理。它借鉴了认知心理学的研究方法，开发了一种创新的研究设计，以深入了解不同参与者在特定环境中如何实施财务治理。它系统地描绘了这些金融中心的“金融概念”，追踪了这如何对不确定性产生不同的反应，然后分析了宏观金融稳定和金融风险分布的影响。该项目与伦敦、柏林、北京、香港和上海的研究和政策机构合作，为我们理解中国如何在全球变化和动荡的时代影响金融治理做出了直接、原创和重大的贡献。这一贡献使项目能够面向三种不同的受众。它促进了国际政治经济学和经济社会学学科的发展，说明了新的实证研究方法如何将微观层面的动态和宏观层面的政治经济学结果联系起来。该书面向公共政策和金融服务领域的从业人员，为全球金融不断变化的格局提供了丰富的经验见解，同时展示了不同的金融概念如何产生不同的治理结果。最后，它通过扩大关于金融治理和中国崛起的辩论，探讨“中国”和“西方”如何在全球金融中相互依存地联系在一起，向更广泛的公众发表讲话。

Six years following the global financial crisis, we are as unsure as ever about how to sustainably and equitably harness the power of global finance, and scholars, policymakers, and practitioners continue to seek better understandings of authority and power within an interdependent financial system. Meanwhile, as China's financial system becomes increasingly transnational in scope and influence, new ideas of how political authority and financial power can and should relate to one another are evolving in key sites of the global financial order such as Hong Kong, London, and Shanghai. This project investigates the dynamics and implications of this process, examining how and why different political values are reshaping the distribution of risk and the pursuit of stability within global finance. It is centered on two interrelated issues:1. How do different conceptions of authority and power affect a financial system's stability and distribution of risk?2. How is China's entry into global finance reshaping these financial outcomes?These are questions at the nexus of the macro-level of China's rise in global politics, and the micro-level of effective financial governance, however international political economists have not provided adequate tools for addressing them. Even as macro-prudential regulation improves in key global financial hubs, we are constantly reminded that financial governance is a deeply political and social process, as well as an exercise in technocratic regulation. We need better research into how the process of China's financial transnationalization is affecting both the micro-dynamics and macro-shifts of financial governance.Dynamics at both levels are sociopolitical in nature, and involve different conceptions of the relationship between political authority and financial power. Such 'conceptions of finance' are thus an important factor in determining how both public and private financial decision-makers respond to the uncertainty of financial investment and governance. They are unstable and experience both short-run change in response to crisis, or long-term shifts as the global economy evolves structurally. This project explores the implications of China's financial transnationalization by asking how different conceptions of the relationship between state, market, and society in a central process of decision making-the management of uncertainty-are reshaping financial governance in Hong Kong, London, and Shanghai. It draws upon research methods from cognitive psychology to develop an innovative research design that generates insight into how financial governance is being practiced by different actors in specific environments. It systematically maps out 'conceptions of finance' in these financial hubs, traces how this produces different responses to uncertainty, and then analyzes the implications for macro-financial stability and distribution of financial risk. Collaborating with research and policy institutions in London, Berlin, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai, the project makes an immediate, original, and significant contribution to our understanding of how China is affecting financial governance in an era of global change and flux.This contribution enables the project to speak to three different audiences. It fosters the development of the academic disciplines of international political economy and economic sociology, illustrating how novel empirical research methods can connect micro-level dynamics and macro-level outcomes of political economy. It speaks to practitioners in public policy and financial services, providing an empirically rich insight into the shifting landscape of global finance, whilst demonstrating how different conceptions of finance generate different governance outcomes. Finally, it speaks to the wider public by broadening the debates on financial governance and China's rise, exploring how 'China' and 'the West' are interdependently connected in global finance.