Migration, Urbanisation and Socio-Economic Change, England and Wales 1851-1911

长期以来，移徙一直被认为是经济、社会和人口变化的重要驱动力。它既是对工资率的反应，也是工资率的决定因素，它是疾病的传播媒介，它塑造了我们的地方感。然而，数据的缺乏意味着不可能对19世纪英格兰和威尔士的国内移民进行全面分析。最近发布的综合人口普查微观数据数据库-包含大约1.6亿份个人层面的报告-意味着，1851-1911年英格兰和威尔士人口普查报告的整个人口的特定出生地可用于绘制数百万人一生的移徙路径。通过分析移民、工资、交通网络和社会经济背景之间不断变化的关系，可以了解移民的决定因素及其对移民在60年期间进出的社区的影响，1851-1911年期间也是移民从根本上改变英国人口状况的时期。1851年，英格兰和威尔士的城市人口首次超过一半（50.4%），而仅仅60年后，这一比例就上升到了78.9%，城市人口几乎翻了三倍，从1060万增加到2820万。因此，这项研究将提供更深入的了解机制，推动个人的迁移选择，表现在快速城市化的形式。它将解决这样的问题：如果移民对工资差异作出反应，为什么农村向城市的移民在农业工资高的时候达到高峰？不断扩大的铁路网对移民流动有什么影响？移徙是否往往发生在明确界定的边界内？这告诉了我们什么关于个人的地方感？这项研究将分两部分进行，第一部分将审议个人移徙的动机和工资差别-将从贸易委员会工资调查中转录-第二部分将分析移徙者的流动能力。除了分析时间和空间上直线距离对移民流动的影响外，还将分析1831年和1911年存在的交通网络，这要归功于我的导师Leigh Shaw-Taylor博士及其项目“英格兰和威尔士的交通，城市化和经济发展”。“.在限制个人移徙能力的各种因素的背景下分析个人移徙的动机，可以提出全新的问题。如果考虑到工资差异，时间是否比距离更能决定移徙者的目的地？随着网络的发展，这种情况是否发生了变化？为了解释移民对目的地的限制性选择，作为我博士学位的一部分，我与麻省理工学院的同事们开发的一种算法将被用来识别移民领域--在这些领域中，移民数量最大化，移民之间的移民数量最小化。这些地区如何影响个人对目的地的选择？通过分析移民对风险的评估与在竞争性选择的背景下离开出生教区的回报之间的关系，可以更好地理解导致城市化和农村人口减少的机制，并作为进一步分析过去和现在城市化的基准。产出将通过将丰富的来源存放在英国数据档案馆和期刊文章，专题论文、学术报告、潜在用户讲习班和小型会议，宣传项目并鼓励进行新的分析。将为学校、家庭/业余历史学家和公众开发学术界以外的在线资源。这些在线工具将促进移民的研究，满足国家课程要求的项目在当地历史和地理的关键阶段2-4。

Migration has long been recognised as an important driver of economic, social and demographic change. It is both a response to, and a determinant of wage rates, it acts as a vector of disease and it shapes our sense of place. Yet a paucity of data has meant that a comprehensive analysis of internal migration in nineteenth-century England and Wales has not been possible. The recent release of the Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) database - containing approximately 160 million individual-level returns - means that the given place of birth of the entire population as reported in the 1851-1911 censuses of England and Wales can be used to map millions of lifetime migration paths. By analysing the changing relationship between migration, wages, the transport network and the socio-economic context, it will be possible to understand both the determinants of migration and the effect it had on the communities migrants exited and entered over a sixty year period.The period 1851-1911 was also one in which migration fundamentally changed the profile of the British population. 1851 was the first year in which more than half the population of England and Wales were recorded as urban (50.4%) and just sixty years later, this had risen to 78.9%, almost trebling the urban population from 10.6 million to 28.2 million. Therefore, this study will provide deeper insights into the mechanisms driving individuals' migration choices which manifested themselves in the form of rapid urbanisation. It will address such questions as; if migrants were responsive to wage differentials, why did rural-urban migration peak when agricultural wages were high? What impact did the growing railway network have on migration flows? Did migration tend to occur within clearly defined boundaries? What does this tell us about individuals' sense of place?This study will be conducted in two strands and the first will consider individuals' incentives to migrate and wage differentials - to be transcribed from Board of Trade wage surveys - while the second will analyse migrants' capacity to move. In addition to analysing the effect of straight-line distance on migration flows over time and space, the transport network as it existed in 1831 and 1911 will be analysed thanks to a collaboration with my proposed mentor Dr Leigh Shaw-Taylor and his project 'Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development in England and Wales c. 1670-1911'.Analysing individuals' incentives to migrate in the context of factors limiting their capacity to do so allows radically new questions to be asked. Was time a more significant determinant of migrants' destination than distance once wage differentials are accounted for? Did this change as the network evolved? In order to account for migrants' constrained choice of destination, an algorithm developed with colleagues at MIT as part of my PhD will be used to identify migration fields - regions in which the number of moves within them was maximised and the number of moves between them was minimised. How did these regions shape individuals' choice of destination? By analysing the relationship between migrants' assessment of the risks and returns of leaving their parish of birth in the context of competing alternatives, the mechanisms which led to urbanisation and rural depopulation can be better understood and serve as a benchmark for further analyses of urbanisation in both the past and present.The outputs will be delivered by depositing the enriched sources with the UK Data Archive and by journal articles, a monograph, academic presentations, workshops for potential users and a small conference, publicising the project and encouraging new analyses. Outside academia online resources will be developed for schools, family/amateur historians and the public. These online tools will facilitate studies of migration which fulfills national curriculum requirements for projects in local history and geography in Key Stages 2-4.