The Cascading Effects of Numeracy and Over-indebtedness on Family Wellbeing: A Matched Samples Analysis

该项目侧重于计算能力在帮助家庭管理问题债务和减轻其对财务和情感健康的有害影响方面的作用。在多年的低利率和疲弱的工资增长推动无担保借款稳步增长之后，过度负债是一个紧迫的社会问题。2017年，英国家庭30年来首次出现净赤字，平均支出比收入多900英镑（ONS, 2018a）。债务可以反映未来的积极投资，但依赖信贷来维持消费对家庭的长期财务健康有削弱作用（Hodson, Dwyer, & Neilson, 2014）。八分之一的成年人没有现金储蓄（Ripley & Watmough, 2018）；六分之一的人难以按时支付账单和/或拖欠账单（MAS & CACI, 2017）。计算能力反映了个人拥有“在日常生活中使用数字和数据做出正确决策”所需的技能和信心的程度（《国家计算能力》，2019年）。数学盲是一个普遍存在的社会挑战，加剧了低生产力水平，并使人口的经济能力长期低下（FCA, 2015）。30%的受访雇主对高中毕业生的基本计算技能表示不满（CBI/Pearson, 2017），英国近五分之四的成年人缺乏进行基本财务计算所需的数学技能（Bhutoria, Jerrim, & Vignoles, 2018）。数学盲使家庭容易出现过度借贷和储蓄不足的情况，因为人们往往低估了债务的总成本。当账单增加时，对数字和财务状况缺乏信心限制了家庭减少开支和以负担得起的方式偿还债务的能力。过度负债的家庭有陷入债务螺旋式上升的风险，因为偿还债务需要进一步借款。计算能力差和过度负债都与心理健康状况不佳和其他负面后果密切相关。尽管存在这些联系，但在制定帮助家庭消除问题债务的策略时，金融知识和债务咨询干预措施很少考虑计算能力（MAS & CACI, 2017）。此外，研究强调了在计算能力方面存在巨大的性别和社会经济差异，但关于计算能力的种族差异（Furnham & Cheng, 2018; Whitley et al., 2016）或过度负债的证据很少。由于决策者缺乏关于特别需要支持的群体的信息，这种知识的缺乏阻碍了制定缓解债务危机的有效政策。为了分离计算能力在帮助家庭实现财务健康方面的因果作用，我将使用倾向得分分析来评估计算能力是否影响家庭获得问题债务的可能性。倾向得分近似于实验条件，消除了可能影响计算能力和过度负债之间关系的社会阶层等混杂因素。研究结果将进一步加深我们对干预措施如何帮助家庭发展经济能力的理解，并可能为为过度负债家庭提供干预措施的设计和交付提供信息。为了进一步了解问题债务及其对英国家庭功能的影响，我将使用结构方程模型来测试债务、情绪、关系质量、父母行为和青少年发展之间的关系。结果将扩大我们对问题债务影响个人主观幸福感和人际关系的途径的理解。为了解决缺乏关于种族和性别与计算能力、债务和福祉相关的研究，我将研究在计算能力和无担保信贷的使用水平上是否存在种族和性别差异。我将评估种族和/或性别是否会缓和问题债务、幸福感和关系质量之间的关系。研究结果将为设计干预措施以服务不同种族人群时考虑的因素提供见解。

This project focusses on the role of numeracy in helping families manage problem debt and mitigate its deleterious effects on financial and emotional wellbeing. Over-indebtedness is a pressing social problem, following years of low interest rates and weak wage growth that fuelled steady increases in unsecured borrowing. In 2017, UK households entered a net deficit for the first time in 30 years, having spent £900 more, on average, than they had earned in income (ONS, 2018a). Debt can reflect positive investments in the future, but reliance on credit to maintain consumption has debilitating effects on families' long-term financial wellbeing (Hodson, Dwyer, & Neilson, 2014). One in eight adults have no cash savings (Ripley & Watmough, 2018); one in six find it difficult to pay bills on time and/or are in arrears (MAS & CACI, 2017). Numeracy reflects the extent to which individuals have the skills and confidence needed "to use numbers and data to make good decisions in daily life" (National Numeracy, 2019). Innumeracy is a pervasive social challenge, exacerbating low productivity levels and perpetuating low financial capability in the population (FCA, 2015). Thirty percent of employers surveyed report dissatisfaction with school leavers' basic numeracy skills (CBI/Pearson, 2017), and nearly four in five adults in the UK lack the mathematical skills needed to perform basic financial calculations (Bhutoria, Jerrim, & Vignoles, 2018). Innumeracy renders families vulnerable to over-borrowing and under-saving, as people often underestimate the total costs of debt. When bills mount, lack of confidence around numbers and finances limits families' abilities to reduce expenses and pay off debts in an affordable manner. Over-indebted families risk entering into debt spirals, as repayments necessitate further borrowing. Numeracy and over-indebtedness are each closely tied to poor mental health and other negative outcomes. Despite these links, financial literacy and debt counselling interventions rarely consider numeracy when devising strategies to help families eliminate problem debt (MAS & CACI, 2017). Furthermore, research highlights large gender and socioeconomic shortfalls in numeracy, but there is scant evidence on ethnic variations in either numeracy (Furnham & Cheng, 2018; Whitley et al., 2016) or over-indebtedness. This lack of knowledge impedes the development of effective policies to alleviate debt crises, as policymakers lack information on groups in particular need of support. To isolate the causal role of numeracy in helping families achieve financial wellbeing, I will use propensity score analysis to assess whether numeracy influences the likelihood that families acquire problem debt. Propensity scores approximate experimental conditions, removing confounding factors such as social class that could bias the relationship between numeracy and over-indebtedness. Findings will further our understanding of how interventions can help families develop financial capability and may inform the design and delivery of interventions serving over-indebted families. To further understanding of problem debt and its effects on household functioning in the UK, I will use Structural Equation Modelling to test the relationships between debt, mood, relationship quality, parenting behaviours, and youth development. Results will expand our understanding of pathways by which problem debt affects individuals' subjective wellbeing and interpersonal relationships. To address the lack of research on ethnicity and gender as it relates to numeracy, debt, and wellbeing, I will examine whether ethnic and gender differences exist in levels of numeracy and use of unsecured credit. I will assess whether ethnicity and/or gender moderate relationships between problem debt, wellbeing, and relationship quality. Findings will provide insight into factors to consider when designing interventions to serve ethnically diverse populations.