WatPop: understanding seasonal population change

传统的人口统计不能反映由旅游业引起的人口波动，但在一些地方，旅游业是夏季旅游旺季人口波动巨大的原因。在小地区(分区)的官方统计数据中，居住在露营和大篷车场地、酒店/B&B/宾馆或自助式住宿(如出租小屋)内的游客的统计数据很少。这在康沃尔和德文郡尤其如此，那里大约有。每20套住房中就有1套是自助式旅游住宿。自助餐饮小屋(包括通过Airbnb等日益增长的P2P网络出租的小屋)和第二居所等旅游住宿主要来自住房存量，人们对它们的位置或入住率知之甚少。同样，主要与旅游业有关的住宅，如静态大篷车，也可用作常年居住的永久住宅。这些物业及其季节性居住模式给当地人口统计带来了相当大的挑战，并对基础设施和当地服务提供(如零售、保健、应急响应)提出了大量需求。这些影响是高度本地化的，显然需要了解与不断增长的旅游住宿部门相关的高度季节性的居住水平入住率模式。这项研究得益于项目合作伙伴西南水务公司(SWW)提供的供水数据。SWW是英格兰西南部的法定水务局。所有法定水务主管部门定期收集相同的数据，这些数据作为非敏感和非个人可识别的业务数据，可能具有相当大的潜力，可以作为旅游业推动的小面积或居住水平人口波动的指标。这项拟议的研究旨在评估利用供水数据揭示旅游业驱动的小区域季节性人口波动的可行性。具体地说，本研究的目的是：1.利用基于面积的供水措施来推断小区域游客驱动的人口波动的季节和空间分布。评估从住宅级别智能电表得出的供水记录识别第二居所/度假屋和自助餐饮租赁物业及其入住期/空置期的可行性。为了实现这些目标，提出了一种综合方法，借鉴了调查员在处理电力部门类似商业数据以及估计小区域人口波动的时空组成部分方面的经验。拟议的研究具有相当大的潜力，可以释放来自商业部门合作伙伴的新交易数据的价值。将不敏感的和常规收集的供水指标与潜在的人口波动联系起来的能力可以为一系列最终用户带来相当大的好处。其中包括学术界和英国国家统计局(ONS)。国家统计局不断要求确定非住宅住房，以协助人口统计和编制人口统计数据。作为数据提供者，SWW也可以从这项研究中获得相当大的好处，包括更好地了解游客驱动的人口波动对供水方面(提供饮用水)的影响，以及对能力受限的废水处理系统造成的压力。我们的分析还将为供应方数据集增加实质性价值，该数据集提供统一的覆盖范围和来自单一机构的监督，将这些数据与现有数据集联系起来，以释放它们在统计和学术研究中的潜力。《影响之路》概述了一项全面战略，以确保实现这些好处。

Population fluctuations driven by tourism are not captured by traditional population statistics, yet in some localities tourism is responsible for huge population fluctuations during the peak summer tourist season. Tourists staying within camping and caravanning sites, hotels/B&Bs/guesthouses or self-catering accommodation (e.g. rental cottages) are poorly captured within official statistics at the small area (sub-district) level. This is especially true within the counties of Cornwall and Devon where approx. 1 in 20 dwellings represent self-catering tourist accommodation. Tourist accommodation such as self-catering cottages (including those rented through growing peer-to-peer networks such as AirBnB) and second homes are predominantly drawn from the housing stock and very little is known about their location or occupancy patterns. Similarly, dwellings predominantly associated with tourism, such as static caravans, may be used as a permanent residential dwelling with year round occupancy. These properties and their seasonal occupancy patterns present considerable challenges for local population enumeration, and place substantial demands on infrastructure and local service provision (e.g. retail, health, emergency response). These impacts are highly localised and there is a clear requirement to understand the highly seasonal dwelling level occupancy patterns associated with the growing tourist accommodation sector. The research benefits from access to water supply data provided by project partner South West Water (SWW). SWW are the statutory water authority for south west England. Equivalent data are routinely collected by all statutory water authorities and, as non-sensitive and non-personally identifiable operational data, these data could have considerable potential as indicators of small-area or dwelling level population fluctuations driven by tourism. The proposed research aims to assess the feasibility of using water supply data to reveal small area seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism. Specifically the research aims to:1. Infer the seasonal and spatial distribution of small-area tourist-driven population fluctuations using area-based measures of water supply.2. Assess the feasibility of identifying second homes/holiday homes and self-catering rental properties and their periods of occupancy/vacancy from dwelling level smart meter derived water supply records. In addressing these aims a comprehensive methodology is proposed, drawing on the investigators experience in working with similar commercial data from the electricity sector, and in estimating spatiotemporal components of small-area population fluctuations. The proposed research has considerable potential to unlock the value of novel transactional data derived from a commercial sector partner. The ability to link non-sensitive and routinely collected indicators of water supply to underlying population fluctuations could offer considerable benefits to a range of end users. These include the academic community and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ONS have an ongoing requirement to identify non-residential dwellings to assist with population enumeration and the production of population statistics. As data provider, SWW could also realise considerable benefits from this study, including enhanced understanding of the impact of tourist-driven population fluctuations on the water supply side (provision of potable drinking water) and on the pressures placed on capacity-constrained waste water treatment systems. Our analysis will also add substantial value to a supply-side dataset which offers uniform coverage and oversight from a single authority, linking these data to existing datasets in a way that unlocks their potential in statistical and academic research. The 'Pathways to Impact' outlines a comprehensive strategy to ensure that these benefits are realised.