Quantifying and Simulating the Impact of Social Distancing Policies on Firm-Level Productivity

本项目分析了英国工作场所社会距离政策对公司和组织层面生产力的影响。由于英国各地的空间使用强度存在系统性差异，不同公司和部门以及不同地区的经济成本可能存在差异，导致covid - 19有可能显著加剧区域经济不平等，因此有必要为企业制定更具成本效益和针对性的支持措施。为此，该项目将与国家统计局联合生产一种新的数据产品，随后在国家统计局安全研究服务上进行托管和分析。该数据产品将结合英国国家统计局的跨部门商业登记表（IDBR）和评估办公室机构的商业利率评估清单，汇集英国经济活动场所人口的详细信息，以及场所层面的就业、营业额和生产率的详细信息。然后，通过经济模型的镜头研究数据产品，该模型将“物理空间”作为生产因素纳入生产函数的估计，并根据经验校准已经开发的理论模型。经验纪律模型将有助于量化现有社会距离政策的经济影响，并允许模拟英国各公司、部门和地区反事实社会距离政策的经济成本，帮助确定可能有效减少经济影响同时保持疾病控制目标的政策。

This project analyzes the impact of social distancing policies in the workplace in the UK on firm- and organization level productivity. The economic cost are likely to be heterogeneous across firms and sectors as well as across regions as space use intensities vary systematically across the UK, giving rise to the possibility of COVID19 to significantly exacerbate regional economic inequalities raising the necessity to develop more cost-effective and targeted support measures to firms. To do so, the project will produce a novel data product jointly with the ONS to be subsequently hosted and analyzed on the ONS Secure Research Service. This data product will bring together detailed information on the physical make up of the population of the UK's premises in which economic activity takes place along with detailed information on employment, turnover and producivity at the premise level by combining the ONS's Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) with the Valuation Office Agency business rates valuation lists of physical premises. The data product is then subsequently studied through the lense of an economic model that will incorporate "physical space" as a factor of production in the estimation of production functions and empirically calibrate an already developed theoretical model. The empirically disciplined model will both help quantify the economic impact of the existing social distancing policies as well as allow the simulation of the economic cost of counterfactual social distancing policies across firms, sectors and regions of the UK helping identify policies that may be effective in reducing both the economic impact while mtaintaining disease containmentment objectives.