Why do households repay their debt during COVID 19 crisis? well-being and financial implications.

英格兰银行（货币与信贷，2020年6月）报告称，2020年4月，英国家庭偿还了74亿英镑的消费信贷，这是有记录以来最大的净偿还额。COVID 19导致的封城措施最初可能使家庭行为转向偿还债务，因为家庭选择谨慎管理其财务，而近期数据亦显示家庭储蓄增加。唉，这可能不会持续下去，因为最近的报告显示，由于大流行，英国家庭可能会增加60亿英镑的债务敞口，因为他们在信用卡支付，理事会税和水电费方面落后（卫报，20年6月9日）。这也可能是其他国家的情况，即美国（FT，20年6月23日）。该项目探讨了家庭债务偿还增加是否会持续下去，或者鉴于疫情导致的严重不利经济状况，这种情况可能是暂时性的。任何关于家庭债务偿还模式的调查结果都会影响经济的总债务和金融稳定。因此，了解家庭债务偿还的真实的情况非常重要。 该项目较为详细地审查了大流行病和政府干预措施对家庭债务偿还和家庭财务复原力的影响，以家庭在收入损失的情况下能够用流动资产支付维持生计消费和债务的月份来衡量。通过减少家庭支出和就业刺激计划（即休假）实施的封锁影响了债务偿还。货币扩张和延期偿还债务减轻了家庭债务负担。此外，家庭的具体特征，如种族、年龄、性别、资产、健康、就业等，可能与上述因素相互作用。该项目使用大量数据来分析家庭债务偿还和金融弹性，同时考虑到政府的支持性干预措施将被淘汰，而封锁措施也会有所不同。该项目采用了一种创新方法，即嵌套神经网络的独特面板向量自回归模型。此方法可研究英国家庭债务偿还、财务弹性及福祉对COVID 19冲击及政府干预措施的反应，同时检视家庭财务弹性、家庭福祉及金融稳定之间的相互关联。此外，该项目还提供了证据，用于比较和捕捉各国政府干预措施和数据的差异：美国、加拿大、日本、法国和德国。该项目的实证研究结果将为真实的决策提供信息，而其预测则具有与大流行趋势一致的中期范围。

Bank of England (Money and Credit, June 2020) reports that households repaid £7.4 bn of consumer credit in April 2020, the largest net repayment on record. The lockdowns due to COVID 19 could have initially shifted household behaviour towards debt repayments as households opt for prudent management of their finances, while recent data also show an increase in households savings. Alas, this might not persist as recent reports shows that British households could increase their debt exposure by £6bn due to the pandemic as they fall behind on credit card payments, council tax and utility bills (Guardian, 9 Jun 20). This could be also the case in other countries, i.e. US (FT, 23 Jun 20). The project explores whether higher household debt repayment would persist or it could be of transitory nature also in light of the severe adverse economic conditions due to the pandemic. Any findings on household debt repayments patterns would impact upon total indebtedness of the economy and upon financial stability. So it is of importance to understand what happens with household debt repayments in real time. In some detail, the project examines the impact of the pandemic and government interventions on household debt repayments and on household financial resilience, measured as months during which households can pay for subsistence consumption and debt with liquid assets in case of income loss. Lockdowns by reducing household spending and employment stimulus packages (i.e. furloughing) have affected debt repayments. Monetary expansion and debt repayment moratoriums have reduced household debt burdens. In addition, household specific characteristics, such as ethnicity, age, gender, assets, health, employment could interact with the above. The project uses a plethora of data to analyse household debt repayments and financial resilience also in light that supportive government interventions are going to be faced out while also lockdowns vary. The project employs an innovative methodology of a unique panel Vector Autoregressive model that nests neural networks. This methodology allows to study the responses in UK household debt repayments, financial resilience and well-being to shocks in COVID 19 and government interventions while examines the interconnectedness between household financial resilience, household well-being and financial stability. In addition, the project provides evidence, for comparison and to capture variability in government interventions and data, across countries: USA, Canada, Japan, France and Germany. The project's empirical findings would inform policy making decisions in real time while its forecasts have medium term horizon in line with the pandemic trends.