Student to Degree Mismatch: The Role of Schools and the Impact Of Disruption From Covid-19

A - level成绩是决定学生与大学课程匹配程度的关键。该团队之前的研究（Campbell et al, 2020）发现，社会经济地位较低的学生更有可能“不匹配”——考虑到他们的A - level成绩，他们参加的选修课比预期的要少——而不太可能“超匹配”（相反）。这对社会流动性很重要，因为参加高关税课程会带来更高的未来收入（Belfield等人，2018）。2020年，由于新冠肺炎，A级考试被取消，大多数学生获得了老师预测的中心评估成绩（CAGs）。研究（Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020）表明，高SES和私立学校的学生得到更慷慨的预测。他们也有更好的信息、建议和指导，这是参加高收费课程的关键动力。与此同时，由于担心海外学生人数减少，各大学纷纷扩招，人数上限被取消，而且它们在法律上有义务接受自己发出的录取通知书。这场完美风暴可能有利于高经济地位的学生，影响不匹配的程度，以及经济地位差距。在这个项目中，我们将：1)检查考试取消对学生与课程不匹配的影响，2)检查2020年与2019年不匹配学生的特征（按学校类型和社会经济地位），3)提供学位结果不匹配后果的新证据，描述对公平和流动性的潜在影响。

A level grades are crucial in determining how students match with university courses. Previous research by the team (Campbell et al, 2020) finds lower SES students are more likely to 'undermatch' - attending less selective courses than expected given their A level grades - and lesslikely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018).In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and most students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They alsohave better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses.Meanwhile, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap.In this project we will: 1) examine the impact of exam cancellations on student to course mismatch, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.