'JPI MYBL EWG' Unequal ageing: life-expectancy, care needs and reforms to the welfare state

主要研究目标是记录老龄化方面的不平等--例如贫富之间的不平等和男女之间的不平等--在连续出生的队列中发生了怎样的变化，以及旨在加强福利制度财政可持续性的公共政策如何抵消或加剧了这些趋势。这个项目将依靠北美、西欧和斯堪的纳维亚半岛五个国家进行的数据和改革，这些国家经过精心挑选，以确保劳动力市场、社会保障和私人养老金等领域的广泛制度安排：加拿大、法国、德国、瑞典和英国。首先，我们将记录预期寿命和健康老龄化不平等的最新趋势。我们的总体目标是更全面和多方面地了解北美和欧洲各国老龄化不平等的最新趋势。对于法国和瑞典，我们将使用行政数据来结合收入、职业、居住和死亡记录的信息，构建死亡不平等的详细衡量标准，并评估这些指标在最近的队列中发生了怎样的变化。然后，我们将使用加拿大、德国、英国和美国的最新估计数据，对收入-死亡梯度进行跨国分析。其目的是利用跨国差异来更深入地挖掘可能解释预期寿命不平等差异的因素。利用欧洲关于老年人健康的调查数据，以及法国和瑞典的具体调查，我们将按性别和社会经济背景估计健康老龄化的不平等。我们将提供无残疾预期寿命不平等如何随着时间的推移而变化的估计。使用加拿大的数据，我们将估计长期护理的使用如何随社会人口因素的变化而变化。第二，我们不仅通过观察当前政策对再分配趋势的影响来描述不平等的趋势。更准确地说，我们将使用法国、瑞典和英国的案例，分析养老金改革如何有助于减少或加剧老龄化方面的不平等。结合对收入-死亡率梯度的估计，以及对养老金制度影响的仔细估计和模拟，我们将估计公共养老金提供的再分配模式，并分析养老金改革如何改变这种再分配。我们将区分静态分析和确实允许行为反应的分析，特别是退休模式的变化。特别是，我们将引出延长职业生涯的战略如何抵消或加剧不平等。除了公共养老金改革，我们还将考虑改革英国的私人养老金提供，通过评估大多数员工自动登记为工作场所养老金的分配影响。第三，我们将研究迫在眉睫的护理需求增加是否以及如何为提供护理的人和需要护理的人造成额外的不平等。最近的研究强调了护理需求、正式护理接待量和非正规护理提供在很大程度上受到社会经济背景的影响。我们将通过分析改革如何影响加拿大和德国在护理责任方面的不平等，为这一研究机构做出贡献。此外，我们将利用欧洲的数据分析非正规护理中的性别差距--老年护理绝大多数由妇女提供--如何与劳动力市场和养老金提供制度中的性别不平等有关。此外，我们将使用来自加拿大和德国的数据来估计长期护理使用的模型，明确考虑社会经济背景中的不平等。最后，我们将利用德国养老金和长期护理体系的改革来评估它们影响非正式护理提供方面的不平等的可能性有多大。

The main research objective is to document how inequalities in ageing - such as those between the rich and the poor and those between men and women - have changed across successive birth cohorts, and how public policies aiming to strengthen the fiscal sustainability of welfare systems have counteracted or accentuated these trends. This project will rely on data and reforms carried out in five countries encompassing North America, Western Europe and Scandinavia and carefully chosen to ensure a wide span of institutional arrangements in areas such as labour markets, social security and private pensions: Canada, France, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom.First, we will document recent trends in life-expectancy and healthy ageing inequality. Our overall objective is to bring about a more complete and multi-faceted picture of recent trends in ageing inequalities across countries from North America and Europe. For France and Sweden, we will use administrative data to combine information on income, occupation, residence and death records and construct detailed measures of mortality inequalities, and assess how these have changed across recent cohorts.We will then carry out a cross-country analysis of the income-mortality gradient using recent estimates for Canada, Germany, the UK, and the US. The objective is to exploit cross-country differences to dig deeper into the factors which could explain variations in inequalities of life expectancy. Using survey data on health at older ages in Europe, and specific surveys for France and Sweden, we will estimate inequalities of healthy ageing by gender and socio-economic background. We will provide estimates of how inequalities of disability-free life-expectancy are changing over time. Using Canadian data, we will estimate how the use of long-term care varies by socio-demographic factors.Second, we go beyond describing trends in inequalities by looking at the effects that current policies have on redistributive trends. More precisely, we will analyse how pension reforms have contributed to reduce, or increase, these inequalities in ageing, using cases from France, Sweden and the UK. Combining estimates on the income-mortality gradient with careful estimation and simulation of the impact of pension systems, we will estimate redistributive patterns of public old-age provision, and analyse how pension reforms have altered this redistribution. We will distinguish between static analyses and analyses that do allow for behavioural responses, notably changes to retirement patterns. In particular, we will elicit how strategies to extend career length counteract or aggravate inequalities. In addition to public pension reforms, we will consider reforms to private pension provision in the UK, through estimating the distributional impact of autoenrollment of most employees into workplace pensions.Third, we will study whether, and how, the looming increase in care needs generates additional inequalities for those giving care and for people in need of care. Recent research has highlighted how care needs, formal care take-up and informal care provision are largely influenced by socio-economic background. We will contribute to this body of research by analysing how reforms impact inequalities in care responsibilities in Canada and Germany. In addition, we will analyse how the gender gap in informal care - elderly care is overwhelmingly provided by women - is related to gender inequalities in the labour market and the system of pension provision using European data. Moreover, we will use data from Canada and Germany to estimate models of long-term care use explicitly considering inequalities in socioeconomic background. Finally, we will exploit reforms to the pension and long-term care systems in Germany to assess how likely they are to impact inequalities in informal care provision.