UK Net Domestic Consumer Surplus (1700-2020), Inequality and the Environment

几十年来，人均国内生产总值一直是世界各地福利和福祉的主要代表。国内生产总值反映了所生产的商品和服务的价值。但消费者实际上从他们消费的东西中受益多少呢？一般来说，消费者对他们购买的东西的价值至少与他们为商品和服务支付的价格一样高，否则他们不会购买。消费者对这些商品的估价比市场价格高出多少？这种从消费中获得净收益的概念被称为消费者剩余。该研究旨在提供对消费者盈余的第一次估计，称为NDCS（净国内消费者盈余）及其在整个经济中的历史演变，英国从1700年到2020年，将详细的消费者支出和价格数据与需求建模和计量经济学方法因果推理相结合。我们的第一个中心研究问题是：英国经济通过其生产（和净进口）商品产生了多少消费者剩余，以及在过去几十年和几个世纪中，这是如何演变的？我们认识到英国经济经历了一系列冲击，因此我们也探讨了重大结构转型（如数字时代）以及重大衰退或流行病等事件对消费者盈余的影响。该研究项目还将揭示学术界、政策界和公众讨论的两个重要挑战：不平等和气候变化。来自不同收入群体的消费者购买不同的一篮子商品，例如，低收入消费者往往比高收入消费者在食品上花费更多。因此，我们估计NDCS如何在收入群体之间变化，这使我们能够回答我们的第二个中心研究问题：消费者剩余中有多少不平等，不平等随着时间的推移而增加或减少？最后，我们想比较消费的估计效益和与消费相关的环境成本，重点是碳排放。这使我们能够回答我们的第三个核心研究问题：消费者剩余与碳排放的环境成本相比如何？由于一个关键的政策工具，以遏制碳排放是引入碳税，我们还问：什么将是碳定价对消费者盈余在英国的影响，以及消费者盈余在收入群体之间的分配？拟议的研究将使以下各方受益：（一）通过传播研究结果并提供可供复制和推广的产出、代码和方法，使相关领域的学术研究人员受益;（二）通过在整个项目期间的参与和协商，使政策制定者和利益攸关方受益;（三）公众，鉴于产出的一部分是一个容易获得的普遍感兴趣的指标，并与整个社会广泛讨论的主题有关，如不平等和气候变化。

GDP per capita has been the primary proxy of welfare and wellbeing across the world for several decades. GDP captures the value of goods and services produced. But how much do consumers actually benefit from what they consume? Generally, consumers value what they purchase at least as much as the prices they are paying for goods and services, otherwise they would not make the purchase. How much beyond the market prices do consumers value these goods? This concept of net benefit from consumption is called consumer surplus. The proposed research aims to provide the first estimates of consumer surplus called NDCS (Net Domestic Consumer Surplus) and its historical evolution for an entire economy, the UK from 1700-2020, combining detailed consumer expenditure and price data with demand modelling and econometric methods from causal inference. Our first central research question is: how much consumer surplus does the UK economy generate with its produced (and net imported) goods and how has this evolved over the past decades and centuries? Recognising that the UK economy has experienced a number of shocks, we also explore the impact of major structural transformation, such as the digital age, and events like major recessions or pandemics on consumer surplus.The research project will also shed light on two important challenges discussed throughout academia, policy circles and the general public alike: inequality and climate change. Consumers from different income groups purchase different baskets of goods - for example lower income consumers tend to spend relatively more on food than higher income consumers. We therefore estimate how NDCS varies across income groups, which allows us to answer our second central research question: How much inequality is there in consumer surplus, and has inequality increased or decreased over time?Finally, we want to compare the estimated benefits from consumption with the environmental costs associated with consumption, focussing on carbon emissions. This allows us to answer our third central research question: How does consumer surplus compare with environmental costs from carbon emissions. Since a key policy instrument to curb carbon emissions is the introduction of carbon taxes, we also ask: What would be the impact of carbon pricing on consumer surplus in the UK, and the distribution of consumer surplus across income groups?The proposed research will benefit (i) academic researchers in the relevant field through dissemination of findings and making output, code and methodology available for replication and extension, (ii) policy makers and stakeholders through engagement and consultation throughout the project, and (iii) the general public, given that part of the output is an easily accessible indicator of general interest and relevant for topics discussed widely throughout society, such as inequality and climate change.