Climate Mobility, Onward Precarity and Urban Environment (CEMENT)

我们对“气候流动性”的理解正在发生变化。“气候流动”指的是自愿和非自愿的、多方向的人员流动，包括出于与气候变化有关的原因而不迁移的行为，而“气候迁移”通常意味着从一个国家到另一个国家永久改变居住地。许多科学研究表明，气候流动主要是在国内进行的，从受气候影响的农村地区流向城市，并不一定是永久性的。然而，在新的报告以及发展政策和实践中，气候变化导致的从全球南方到全球北方(例如从非洲到欧洲)的大规模移徙仍然频繁。此外，尽管有流行的假设，但气候流动性通常不仅仅与气候变化有关。即使在南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的气候变化热点地区，气候变化也很少是人口流动的主要原因。气候变化主要通过其他社会、经济和政治条件(如婴儿死亡率、食品价格通胀、失业率等)间接影响人类流动性。我最近对学术和政策研究的全面审查表明，许多科学研究仍然认为气候变化是流动的主要驱动因素，b)根植于基于位置的推动和拉动因素的概念，c)较少关注家庭生活、流动决策和社会结构，d)侧重于单一地点的工作年龄男性及其经济活动，e)在地理上偏向于受气候变化影响的农村地区或目的地地区的社会不平等和经济不确定性。气候流动性、未来早产儿和城市环境(CONTAL)项目将通过从家庭决策、社会不平等和经济不确定性方面研究气候流动性来审查这些问题，埃塞俄比亚是测试案例。通过对气候流动做法的多地点、对性别问题有敏感认识和对年龄有敏感认识的生命历程调查，水泥将探讨a)小农家庭如何针对埃塞俄比亚农村日益频繁和严重的干旱事件作出不同家庭成员的流动决定，以及b)这些家庭成员如何应对埃塞俄比亚城市的机遇和挑战。埃塞俄比亚是一个重要的研究地点，因为它a)是一个干旱事件日益频繁和严重的国家，b)是非洲第二大人口国家，c)主要是农村人口，但城市化速度最快，每年约5%，GDP年增长率为两位数，以及d)欧盟紧急信托基金(EUTF)对非洲的第三大受援国，在过去六年中总共收到了3.11亿欧元，以减少移民和难民进入欧洲。

Our understanding of 'climate mobility' is changing. 'Climate mobility' means both voluntary and involuntary, multidirectional movement of people, including an act of not moving, for reasons related to climate change, whereas 'climate migration' generally means the permanent change of residence from one country to another. Much scientific research suggests that climate mobility is largely in-country, heading to cities from climate-affected rural areas, and not necessarily permanent. Yet, climate change-induced mass migration from the Global South to the Global North (e.g. Africa to Europe) continues to be frequent in new reports and development policy and practice. Moreover, despite popular assumptions, climate mobility is usually not only about climate change. Even in climate change hotspots in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is rarely the main reason for mobility. Climate change affects human mobility mostly indirectly through other social, economic and political conditions (e.g. infant mortality rate, food price inflation, unemployment rate etc.) that together affect mobility decision-making processes.My recent comprehensive review of academic and policy research shows that much scientific research a) continues to consider climate change as a main driver of mobility, b) is rooted in the notion of location-based push and pull factors, c) pays less attention to family life, mobility decision-making and structures of society, d) focuses on working-age males in single locations and their economic activities, and e) is geographically biased to either climate change affected rural areas or social inequalities and economic uncertainties in destination areas. The Climate Mobility, Onward Precarity and Urban Environment (CEMENT) project will examine these issues by studying climate mobility in terms of family decision-making, social inequality and economic uncertainties, with Ethiopia as the test case. Through a life course, multi-sited, gender-responsive and age-sensitive investigation of climate mobility practices, CEMENT will explore a) how smallholder families make mobility decisions of different family members in response to increasingly frequent and intense drought events in rural Ethiopia and b) how those individual family members navigate opportunities and challenges in urban Ethiopia. Ethiopia is an important site to study as it is a) a country with increasingly frequent and intense drought events, b) the second largest populated country in Africa, c) predominantly rural but with one of the fastest urbanisation rates of about 5% a year and double-digit annual GDP growth, and d) the third-top recipient of the EU Emergency Trust Fund (EUTF) for Africa and received a total amount of 311 million Euro over the last six years to reduce the arrival of migrants and refugees in Europe.