The effects of voter ID in the UK

英国《2022年选举法》将强制规定，从2023年5月起，英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士的大选以及英格兰所有地方选举中，必须有照片的选民身份证。这项改革将首次规定，在英国大选中行使投票权必须出示带照片的身份证。政府研究表明，9%的英国选民目前没有合格的身份证明。这是一个潜在的后果和有争议的变化，构成了更广泛的国际趋势的一部分（例如，美国，印度）。支持者认为，选民身份证可以打击选举舞弊，提高选民对选举的信心。反对者认为，在像英国这样没有国民身份证的情况下，它会抑制选举的参与、平等和对选举公平的信任，这些选民群体不太可能拥有身份证。从科学的角度来看，选民身份证的影响仍然知之甚少。关于选民身份证影响的研究结果相互矛盾，并且绝大多数集中在美国（Alvarez等人2021年，Atkeson等人2010年，Atkeson等人2014年，Grimmer等人2018年，Hanjal等人2017年，Stuart III等人2016年，Valentino & Neuner 2017年）。在美国，最近多个州出台了严格的选民身份法，与此同时，公众话语中对选举诚信和公平的担忧日益凸显。然而，来自美国背景的研究结果具有有限的普遍性，因为对美国选民身份证的反应是由种族的政治突出性和政治两极分化程度决定的，而这并不适用于其他发达民主国家（Wilson & Rosenbluth 2014）。此外，在关于选民身份证影响的研究中，因果识别的研究设计很少见，这使得很难得出强有力的结论（Highton 2017, Burden 2018, Grimmer et al 2018）。本项目研究在英国引入强制性带照片的身份证对选民行为和态度的影响。它结合了(i)在英国地方选举和下一届英国大选（可能在2024年或2025年举行）的背景下实时展开的考察选民身份证影响的原始调查，以及(i) 21世纪初北爱尔兰引入选民身份证影响的历史数据分析，以及（iii） 2018年和2019年的英国选民身份证试验。该项目的学术和政策目标是：(i)对任何发达民主国家的地方和国家层面的选民身份证效果进行首次全面研究。（ii）为政治科学贡献对英国选民身份证影响的理解，这是一个本身就很重要的案例，也是一个结论更有可能推广到其他发达民主国家而不是美国的国家。（iii）对于英国政治专家来说，这是英国第一个也是唯一一个采用研究设计来确定改革因果效应的选民身份研究。（iv）对于英国政府、议会和选举委员会而言，该项目为选民身份证的效果提供了及时和政治上公正的证据（请参见“支持理由”第7节）。影响”)。

The UK 2022 Elections Act will introduce mandatory photographic voter ID for in-person voting in England, Scotland, and Wales in general elections, and also in all local elections in England from May 2023. The reform will, for the first time, make the exercise of the right to vote in UK general elections conditional on the presentation of photo ID. Government research suggests that 9 per cent of UK voters do not currently have eligible identification. This is a potentially consequential and contentious change that forms part of a wider international trend (e.g., US, India). Its proponents argue that voter ID combats electoral fraud and increases voter confidence in elections. Its opponents argue that, in contexts without national ID like the UK, it depresses electoral participation, equality, and trust in electoral fairness across a range of voter groups who are less likely to possess ID. ContextScientifically, the effects of voter ID remain poorly understood. Studies of the effects of voter ID feature contradictory findings and focus overwhelmingly on the US (Alvarez et al 2021, Atkeson et al 2010, Atkeson et al 2014, Grimmer et al 2018, Hanjal et al 2017, Stuart III et al 2016, Valentino & Neuner 2017). In the US, the recent introduction of strict voter ID laws in multiple states is accompanied by the increasing salience of concerns about electoral integrity and fairness in the public discourse. However, findings derived from the US context are of limited generalizability because responses to voter ID in the US are shaped by the political salience of race and a level of political polarization that does not apply to other developed democracies (Wilson & Rosenbluth 2014). Moreover, causally identified research designs are rare in studies of the effects of voter ID, which makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions (Highton 2017, Burden 2018, Grimmer et al 2018).AimsThis project studies the effects on voters' behaviour and attitudes of the introduction of mandatory photo ID in the UK. It combines (i) original surveys that examine the effect of voter ID as it unfolds in real time in the context of English local elections and the next UK general election (likely to be held in 2024 or 2025) with the analysis of historical data on the effects of the introduction of voter ID in (i) Northern Ireland in the early 2000s, and (iii) the English voter ID trials of 2018 and 2019. ObjectivesThe project's academic and policy objectives are: (i) To deliver the first comprehensive study of the effects of voter ID in any developed democracy on the local and national level. (ii) To contribute to political science an understanding of the effects of voter ID in the UK, a case of importance in its own right, and a country from which conclusions are more likely to generalize to other developed democracies than from the US. (iii) For experts of British politics, this is the first and only study of voter ID in the UK which employs a research design that can identify the causal effects of the reform. (iv) For the UK Government, Parliament, and the Electoral Commission, the project provides timely and politically impartial evidence of the effect of voter ID (please see Case for Support, section "7. Impact").