UNDPOLAR: Threat, identity, and dissent: Understanding and addressing political polarization in European democracies

在许多欧洲国家，公众舆论在移民、不平等、民粹主义和对机构的信任等问题上两极分化。虽然每个问题都有扩展的文献，但迫切需要整合。对这些问题的意见是否相关，如果有，是什么把它们联系在一起的？不同的人群在不同的问题上和/或出于不同的原因会出现两极分化吗？我们的第一个目标是确定身份和威胁是如何结合起来产生多极化态度的。首先，我们使用相关类分析的新技术来识别具有独特信仰系统的亚种群，包括威胁，身份和两极分化的态度。这些分析之后是测试身份和威胁的因果效应的实验，以及这些在具有不同信仰体系的亚群体之间可能有何不同。我们的第二个目标是比较不同国家和不同时间信仰体系的亚群。因此，信仰体系的跨国差异将与政治格局的变化（例如，政治两极分化）和社会结构国家特征的差异（例如，不平等和精英信仰）有关。纵向上，我们将研究金融危机对信仰体系的影响。至关重要的是，确定具有不同信仰体系的亚群体不仅有助于理解两极分化，还有助于确定解决方案，这些解决方案因信仰体系而异。诸如公民论坛之类的民主创新是为了克服两极分化而发展起来的。我们将测试使用我们对威胁和身份的见解是否可以使这样的论坛更有效。

In many European countries public opinion is polarized on issues such as immigration, inequality,populism, and trust in institutions. Although for each issue there is an extended literature, there isa pressing need for integration. Are opinions on these issues related and, if so, what is the gluethat binds them? Do different groups of people polarize on different issues and/or for differentreasons?Our first objective is to determine how identities and threat combine to generate multiplepolarized attitudes. First, we use the novel technique of correlational class analysis to identifysubpopulations with unique belief systems, consisting of threats, identities, and polarizedattitudes. These analyses are followed by experiments that test causal effects of identities andthreats, and how these may differ between subpopulations with different belief systems.Our second objective is to compare subpopulations of belief systems across countries and overtime. Therefore, cross-country differences in belief systems will be related to variation in thepolitical landscape (e.g., political polarisation), and differences in social structural countrycharacteristics (e.g., inequality and meritocratic beliefs). Longitudinally we will examine theimpact of the financial crisis on belief systems.Crucially, identifying subpopulations with different belief systems will help not only inunderstanding polarisation, but also in identifying solutions, which are expected to differdepending on the belief system. Democratic innovations such as citizen fora have been developedto overcome polarisation. We will test whether using our insights on threats and identity can makesuch fora more effective.