Glaciers and ice sheets in a warming world

格陵兰（和北极）未来海洋冰川退缩的速度和规模对于估计未来海平面的贡献以及规划未来的航运路线和极地基础设施（例如矿山，港口/港口，水电设施）是一个重大的未知数。格陵兰总理Mute Egede（http：//tiny.cc/EgedeSpeech），格陵兰岛将成为这一目标的关键地点，因为英国和全球政府正在寻找：（1）更好地限制未来海平面变化;（2）大西洋和太平洋之间快速，安全，政治稳定的航线;（3）可再生能源的替代形式（例如通过水力发电提取的氢）;（四）并以对环境和社会负责的方式获得稀土矿。这一更新提案将建立在第一次会议取得的进展的基础上。在研究金项目的第一阶段，与会者讨论了开发简单计算方法评估冰川稳定性的问题，以及冰川学界在生成近实时数据方面取得的进展。它将通过建立有史以来第一个“冰川数字孪生”（GDT）来实现这一目标。这将是公开的，并使用近实时获得的数据来评估冰川变化的可能性及其对航运，基础设施和当地社区的潜在下游影响。除此之外，我们还将建立利物浦-阿西亚克冰川观测站（LAGO），以了解努克目前和未来的风险-格陵兰岛最大的港口，以及通过西北通道开放的未来英国贸易的潜在重要位置。具有讽刺意味的是，努克的主要锡库克港（在格陵兰语中的意思是“无冰”）在过去的一年里不得不关闭5次，因为来自纳尔萨普·塞米亚的冰入侵增加。在这个项目中，我们将把来自LAGO的联合收割机数据与卫星图像和冰川行为的计算机模拟相结合，以促进我们对冰川变化的理解，并了解它对努克和西库基港未来计划的发展构成了多大的风险。将我们的工作结果传达给英国和国际利益相关者是这个项目的关键组成部分，为了最大限度地利用这项工作，我们与Asiaq Greenland Survey合作（格陵兰政府的地球科学咨询公司）; Ramboll工程公司（负责确保格陵兰多个海洋基础设施项目对未来变化的适应能力）;格陵兰商业协会（GBA;代表330家格陵兰企业，这些企业雇用了超过30%的格陵兰工作年龄人口）;以及英国极地地区所有党派议会小组。利益相关者的参与将采取会议和研讨会的形式，由大湾区促进，同时与Asiaq和Ramboll在努克的办公室合作。还将为极地地区APPG举办活动并制作简报，向英国议员和同行传达该项目的调查结果和见解，了解格陵兰岛的冰川和冰山变化如何能够并且将会影响环境、贸易和安全英国。总而言之，这个项目将有助于促进我们对短格陵兰MTG对未来气候变化的长期（亚季节性）和长期（多年）响应，从单个冰川到整个冰盖的规模。通过这样做，它将提供对未来海平面贡献的更好估计，并为北极内外的人民，工业和政府提供更安全和更有保障的环境。

The rate and scale of future marine terminating glacier retreat in Greenland's (and the Arctic) represents a significant unknown for estimating future sea level contributions, and the planning of future shipping routes and polar infrastructure (e.g. mines, ports/harbours, hydropower installations). As noted by Greenlandic PM Mute Egede (http://tiny.cc/EgedeSpeech), Greenland is set to be a key location for this as the UK and governments globally look for: (1) better constraint on future sea level change; (2) fast, safe, politically stable shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific; (3) alternative forms of renewable energy (e.g. hydrogen extracted through hydropower); (4) and obtaining rare earth minerals sourced in an environmentally and socially responsible manner.This Renewal proposal will build on progress made in the first stage of the fellowship on the development of computationally simple approaches to assessing glacier stability, and advances made by the glaciological community in the generation of near real-time data. It will achieve this by building the first ever "Glaciological Digital Twin" (GDT). This will be openly accessible, and use data obtained in near-real time to assess the likelihood of glacier change and the potential downstream impacts of this on shipping, infrastructure and local communities. In addition to this, we will build on the establishment of the Liverpool-Asiaq Glacier Observatory (LAGO) to understand present and future risks to Nuuk - Greenland's largest port, and a potentially vital location for future UK trade through the opening of the Northwest Passage. Nuuk's major Sikuk Harbour (meaning "ice free" in Greenlandic) has ironically had to close 5 times in the last year due to increased incursions of ice that originated from Narsap Sermia. In this project we will combine data from LAGO with satellite imagery and computer simulations of glacier behaviour to advance our understanding of what is driving changes at this glacier and understand how much of a risk it poses to Nuuk and the future planned development of Sikuki Harbour.Communicating the results of our work to UK and international stakeholders forms a key component of this project, and to maximise meaningful uptake of this work we have partnered with Asiaq Greenland Survey (the Greenland Government's geoscience consultancy); Ramboll Engineering (responsible for ensuring the resilience of multiple marine infrastructure projects in Greenland to future change); the Greenland Business Association (GBA; representing 330 Greenlandic businesses who employ >30% of the Greenlandic working age population); and the UK All Party Parliamentary Group for Polar Regions. Stakeholder engagement will take the form of meetings and workshops facilitated by the GBA while working alongside Asiaq and Ramboll at their offices in Nuuk. Events will also be held and briefing notes produced for the APPG for Polar Regions, to communicate findings and insight from the project to UK MPs and Peers regarding how glacier and iceberg change in Greenland can and will impact the environment, trade and security of the UK.Taken together, this project will help to advance our understanding of the short (sub-seasonal) and long term (multi-decadal) responses of Greenland's MTGs to future climate change from the scale of individual glaciers to the entire ice sheet. In doing so, it will deliver improved estimates of future sea level contribution, and contribute to a safer and more secure environment for its people, industry and governments within and beyond the Arctic.