FINITE MIXTURE MODELING OF ADOLESCENT ALCOHOL USE

应用者摘要：结构方程方法的最新进展 建模是潜变量混合建模，其中人口在 研究被划分为未知数量的潜在类， 不同的均值和协方差结构相关联。整合 混合建模文献中的方法论作品，Muten和 同事（Muthen，出版中; Muthen等人，1998年）提出普遍增长 适合于分析数据集变化的混合建模框架， 涉及异质亚群。该方法结合了潜在类和 潜在增长模型，并提供了一个框架，为建模的增长功能， 不同的亚群，每个亚群都有自己的生长形状，预测因子， 协变量和结果。该方法具有实用价值 在理解异质性的重要性， 不同的发展过程。在本建议中，我们将利用 生长混合建模方法来检查多种发育途径 青少年酗酒和其他物质使用及相关问题行为， 使用现有的纵向数据集。在理论上， Patterson et al.提出的社会背景模型的框架。（1992年）， 拟议的研究将通过检查发展中国家的 青少年饮酒及其他相关问题行为异质性 (e.g.,反社会行为）并通过识别不同的影响（例如， 父母的做法，同伴协会，以及其他共同的风险和保护 与异质群体相关的因素。

APPLICANT'S ABSTRACT: A recent methodological advance in structural equation modeling is that of latent variable mixture modeling where a population under study is partitioned into an unknown number of latent classes and with which, different means and covariance structures are associated. Integrating methodological works from the mixture modeling literature, Muthen and colleagues (Muthen, in press; Muthen et al., 1998) proposed a general growth mixture modeling framework appropriate for analyzing change in data sets that involve heterogeneous subpopulations. The approach combines latent class and latent growth models and provides a framework for modeling growth functions of varying subpopulations, each with its own growth shape, predictors, concurrent covariates, and outcomes. This newly developed methodology is of practical importance in understanding heterogeneity corresponding to qualitatively different developmental processes. In this proposal, we will make use of the growth mixture modeling method to examine multiple developmental pathways in adolescent alcohol and other substance use and related problem behaviors, using existing longitudinal data sets. Specifically, within the theoretical framework of the social contextual model posited by Patterson et al.(1992), the proposed study will extend current research by examining developmental heterogeneity in adolescent alcohol use and other related problem behaviors (e.g., antisocial behavior) and by identifying varying influences (e.g., parental practices, peer associations, and other common risk and protective factors) associated with heterogeneous populations.