Quantifying and Monitoring Potential Ecosystem Impacts of Geological Carbon Storage (QICS)

二氧化碳排放增加，主要是燃烧化石燃料发电造成的气候变化，是社会最紧迫的问题之一。目前，英国约90%的能源需求是由化石燃料满足的，在未来几十年里，化石燃料可能仍将是主要的能源来源。发展我们对一系列旨在减少二氧化碳排放战略的利弊的理解是至关重要的。在风能、波浪能和太阳能可再生能源以及碳捕获和储存（CCS）等现有战略中，没有一个是没有潜在问题或局限性的。简单地说，CCS的概念就是在发电过程中捕获二氧化碳，并将其永久储存在陆地或海面下的深层地质结构中。如果CCS取得成功，现有的化石燃料储备可以被利用，同时开发出低二氧化碳排放的新型发电方式。一些项目已经成功地在有限的规模上展示了捕获或存储，因此可以确定的是，技术挑战是可以克服的。研究还表明，一般来说，地质结构对于长期储存是坚固的（例如，石油沉积物在地质地层中仍然存在）。然而，地质构造复杂，地下天然气矿床在地表有出气现象。因此，在不了解泄漏的可能性和可能发生的影响的严重性的情况下，开发全面的CCS项目是不负责任的。本提案的目的是大大提高对CCS系统泄漏可能对生态系统造成的影响规模的理解，并使CCS的全面风险评估成为可能。英国储存二氧化碳的主要地点将在北海的地质构造中，我们的研究集中在对海洋环境的影响上，尽管我们的工作也将与所有地质构造相关。迄今为止的研究表明，假设的大泄漏将显著改变沉积物和水的化学成分，因此一些海洋生物将变得脆弱。目前尚不清楚的是，物种的恢复能力有多强，以及给定的泄漏会产生多大的影响。我们的项目将首次调查一个真实的海洋群落（沉积物内部和上面）对小规模严格控制的人工泄漏的反应。我们将研究化学和生物效应，重要的是调查所需的恢复时间。我们将能够将影响的足迹与已知的二氧化碳输入率联系起来。研究结果将使我们能够开发和测试可应用于其他情景的流量和影响模型，我们将评估一些监测方法。该项目还将调查通过地质构造的流动性质，让我们了解上升的二氧化碳羽流在突破水库时的扩散情况。这里提出的工作将在理解和科学工具方面取得重大进展，以形成CCS风险评估和泄漏生态影响的定量知识。我们将开发模型工具，可以预测从水库泄漏到生态系统的转移、命运和影响，这些工具可以在计划具体的CCS操作时应用。我们工作的一个重要成果将是建议最佳监测策略，以确保及早发现泄漏。我们将与行业、政府和公众的相关方合作，确保我们提供的信息是可访问的和有效的。

Climate change caused by increasing emissions of CO2, principally the burning of fossil fuels for power generation, is one of the most pressing concerns for society. Currently around 90% of the UK's energy needs are met by fossil fuels which will probably continue to be the predominant source of energy for decades to come. Developing our understanding of the pros and cons of a range of strategies designed to reduce CO2 emissions is vital. Of the available strategies such as wind, wave and solar renewables and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) none are without potential problems or limitations. The concept of CCS simply put is to capture CO2 during the process of power generation and to store it permanently in deep geological structures beneath the land or sea surface. If CCS is successful existing fossil fuel reserves could be used whilst new forms of power generation with low CO2 emissions are developed. A few projects have been successfully demonstrating either capture or storage on limited scales, so it is established that the technical challenges are surmountable. Research is also demonstrating that the geological structures are in general robust for long term storage (for example oil deposits remain in place within geological strata). However geological structures are complex and natural sub surface gas deposits are known to outgas at the surface. Consequently it would be irresponsible to develop full scale CCS programmes without an understanding of the likelihood of leakage and the severity of impacts which might occur. The aim of this proposal is to greatly improve the understanding of the scale of impact a leakage from CCS systems might inflict on the ecosystem and to enable a comprehensive risk assessment of CCS. The main location of stored CO2 in the UK will be in geo-formations under the North Sea and our research concentrates on impacts to the marine environment, although our work will also be relevant to all geological formations. Research to date has shown that hypothetical large leaks would significantly alter sediment and water chemistry and consequently some marine creatures would be vulnerable. What is not yet understood is how resilient species are, and how big an impact would stem from a given leak. Our project will investigate for the first time the response of a real marine community (both within and above the sediments) to a small scale tightly controlled artificial leak. We will look at chemical and biological effects and importantly investigate the recovery time needed. We will be able to relate the footprint of the impact to the known input rate of CO2. The results will allow us to develop and test models of flow and impact that can be applied to other scenarios and we will assess a number of monitoring methods. The project will also investigate the nature of flow through geological formations to give us an understanding of the spread of a rising CO2 plume should it breach the reservoir. The work proposed here would amount to a significant advance in the understanding and scientific tools necessary to form CCS risk assessments and quantitative knowledge of the ecological impacts of leaks. We will develop model tools that can predict the transfer, fate and impact of leaks from reservoir to ecosystem, which may be applied when specific CCS operations are planned. An important product of our work will be a recommendation of the best monitoring strategy to ensure the early detection of leaks. We will work alongside interested parties from industry, government and public to ensure that the information we produce is accessible and effective.