Quantifying and Monitoring Potential Ecosystem Impacts of Geological Carbon Storage (QICS).

二氧化碳排放量增加，主要是燃烧化石燃料发电，造成气候变化，是社会最紧迫的问题之一。目前，英国约90%的能源需求是由化石燃料满足的，化石燃料在未来几十年可能仍将是主要的能源来源。发展我们对旨在减少二氧化碳排放的一系列战略的利弊的理解至关重要。在风能、波浪能和太阳能可再生能源以及碳捕获和储存等现有战略中，没有一项是没有潜在问题或限制的。CCS的概念简单地说就是在发电过程中捕获二氧化碳，并将其永久储存在陆地或海洋表面下的深层地质结构中。如果CCS取得成功，可以利用现有的化石燃料储备，同时开发二氧化碳排放量低的新发电形式。一些项目已经成功地展示了在有限规模上的捕获或储存，因此可以确定，技术挑战是可以克服的。研究还表明，地质结构一般来说是坚固的，可以长期储存（例如，石油矿床仍然存在于地质层中）。然而，地质结构是复杂的，并且已知天然地下天然气沉积物在表面脱气。因此，在不了解泄漏的可能性和可能发生的影响的严重性的情况下制定全面的CCS方案是不负责任的。该提案的目的是大大提高对CCS系统泄漏可能对生态系统造成的影响规模的认识，并促成对CCS进行全面的风险评估。英国储存二氧化碳的主要位置将在北海下的地质构造中，我们的研究集中在对海洋环境的影响上，尽管我们的工作也将与所有地质构造相关。迄今为止的研究表明，假设的大泄漏将大大改变沉积物和水的化学性质，因此一些海洋生物将很容易受到伤害。目前尚不清楚的是，物种的适应能力有多强，以及特定泄漏会造成多大的影响。我们的项目将首次调查一个真实的海洋群落（沉积物内和沉积物上方）对一个小规模严格控制的人工泄漏的反应。我们将研究化学和生物效应，并重点研究所需的恢复时间。我们将能够将影响的足迹与已知的二氧化碳输入率联系起来。研究结果将使我们能够开发和测试可应用于其他场景的流量和影响模型，我们将评估一些监测方法。该项目还将调查流经地质构造的流动性质，以便我们了解如果二氧化碳羽流突破水库，上升的二氧化碳羽流的传播情况。这里提议的工作将大大促进对CCS风险评估和泄漏生态影响定量知识的理解和必要的科学工具。我们将开发模型工具，可以预测从水库到生态系统的泄漏的转移，命运和影响，这可能会在计划具体的CCS操作时应用。我们工作的一个重要成果将是建议最佳监测战略，以确保及早发现泄漏。我们将与来自行业、政府和公众的利益相关方合作，确保我们提供的信息是可访问的和有效的。

Climate change caused by increasing emissions of CO2, principally the burning of fossil fuels for power generation, is one of the most pressing concerns for society. Currently around 90% of the UK's energy needs are met by fossil fuels which will probably continue to be the predominant source of energy for decades to come. Developing our understanding of the pros and cons of a range of strategies designed to reduce CO2 emissions is vital. Of the available strategies such as wind, wave and solar renewables and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) none are without potential problems or limitations. The concept of CCS simply put is to capture CO2 during the process of power generation and to store it permanently in deep geological structures beneath the land or sea surface. If CCS is successful existing fossil fuel reserves could be used whilst new forms of power generation with low CO2 emissions are developed. A few projects have been successfully demonstrating either capture or storage on limited scales, so it is established that the technical challenges are surmountable. Research is also demonstrating that the geological structures are in general robust for long term storage (for example oil deposits remain in place within geological strata). However geological structures are complex and natural sub surface gas deposits are known to outgas at the surface. Consequently it would be irresponsible to develop full scale CCS programmes without an understanding of the likelihood of leakage and the severity of impacts which might occur. The aim of this proposal is to greatly improve the understanding of the scale of impact a leakage from CCS systems might inflict on the ecosystem and to enable a comprehensive risk assessment of CCS. The main location of stored CO2 in the UK will be in geo-formations under the North Sea and our research concentrates on impacts to the marine environment, although our work will also be relevant to all geological formations. Research to date has shown that hypothetical large leaks would significantly alter sediment and water chemistry and consequently some marine creatures would be vulnerable. What is not yet understood is how resilient species are, and how big an impact would stem from a given leak. Our project will investigate for the first time the response of a real marine community (both within and above the sediments) to a small scale tightly controlled artificial leak. We will look at chemical and biological effects and importantly investigate the recovery time needed. We will be able to relate the footprint of the impact to the known input rate of CO2. The results will allow us to develop and test models of flow and impact that can be applied to other scenarios and we will assess a number of monitoring methods. The project will also investigate the nature of flow through geological formations to give us an understanding of the spread of a rising CO2 plume should it breach the reservoir. The work proposed here would amount to a significant advance in the understanding and scientific tools necessary to form CCS risk assessments and quantitative knowledge of the ecological impacts of leaks. We will develop model tools that can predict the transfer, fate and impact of leaks from reservoir to ecosystem, which may be applied when specific CCS operations are planned. An important product of our work will be a recommendation of the best monitoring strategy to ensure the early detection of leaks. We will work alongside interested parties from industry, government and public to ensure that the information we produce is accessible and effective.