Participatory Modelling Frameworks to Understand Wellbeing Trade-offs in Coastal Ecosystem Services.

该项目旨在开发一个框架和相关工具，以明确确定生态系统服务之间的权衡，以及政策和发展情景与环境变化导致的不同利益相关者的福祉之间的权衡。我们将通过结合建模和参与性过程来实现这一目标，以代表社会生态系统的相互作用和反应，并通过一系列专家和利益相关者研讨会将开发的框架应用于肯尼亚的沿海环境。生态系统服务（ES）在理解人类需求与生态系统之间的联系方面已变得很受欢迎，但其在实际应用于发展和可持续性问题，特别是减轻贫困方面的应用受到各种挑战的限制。这些挑战往往源于ES框架无法考虑到社会生态系统固有的复杂性和相互作用。它限制了我们对ES最终如何转化为扶贫的理解。特别是，我们知道，社会福利不仅取决于制度和市场，还取决于资本、知识、专业技能、技术和劳动力——这些是贫困群体经常缺乏的。此外，我们知道了解幸福的不同方面之间的相互联系是很重要的。面对不同群体的生态系统利益的权衡，这些对使用生态系统方法减轻贫困的有效性有严重影响。有必要建立一个ES框架，在社会生态系统的复杂性下，明确代表贫困群体，进行权衡。该项目将开发一个新的框架，将建模和参与性过程结合起来，以理解、记录和审议复杂社会生态系统中不同用户群体福祉之间的ES利益权衡。我们将在肯尼亚沿海环境的案例研究中测试该框架。我们将开发定量和半定量模型来探索情景对特定群体的ES和福祉的影响。社会生态系统中的联系将根据社会和生态组成部分之间的相互作用和反应的定量和定性知识进行建模。在模型开发和数据整理的同时，我们建议在东非与科学家、管理人员和利益相关者一起举办五个研讨会，以：开发概念和方法工具，规划情景，获得模型参数，进行多标准分析，并反映和传播结果。将密切协助讲习班实现具体目标。这些方法、经验和学习将在科学家和决策者之间传播，以支持ESPA方案。拟议的项目将提供一个框架来研究生态系统服务的权衡，并促进讨论用户群体之间的成本和利益分担以及设计政策选择。特别是，这种方法将有助于在有关生态系统服务的政策讨论中增加对贫困群体的认识，从而有助于制定减轻贫困的政策。

This project is designed to develop a framework and associated tools to explicitly identify trade-offs between ecosystem services and between the wellbeing of different stakeholders resulting from policy and development scenarios and environmental change. We will achieve this by combining modelling and participatory processes to represent interactions and responses of social-ecological systems, and applying the developed framework to the coastal environment of Kenya through a series of expert and stakeholder workshops. Ecosystem services (ES) have become popular for understanding linkages between human needs and ecosystems, yet their use in practical application to problems of development and sustainability, and poverty alleviation in particular, have been limited by various challenges. These challenges often stem from the inability for ES frameworks to take account of the complexity and interactions inherent in social-ecological systems. It limits our understanding on how ES will ultimately translate into poverty alleviation. Particularly, we know that ES benefits depends not only on institutions and markets, but also on capital, knowledge, expertise, technology and labour - something that poor groups often lack. Also, we know that it is important to understand the inter-linkages between different aspects of well-being. These have serious implications for the effectiveness of using ES approach for poverty alleviation in the face of trade-offs of ES benefits to different groups. There is a need for ES frameworks that account for trade-offs under the complexity of social-ecological systems with explicitly representation of poor groups. This project will develop a novel framework to combine modelling and participatory processes to understand, document and deliberate on trade-offs between ES benefits to the wellbeing of different user groups in complex social-ecological systems. We will test the framework in a case study of coastal environment of Kenya. We will develop quantitative and semi-quantitative models to explore the impacts of scenarios on ES and wellbeing of particular groups. Linkages in the social-ecological system will be modelled based on quantitative and qualitative knowledge about the interactions and responses between the social and ecological components. Interspersed with model development and data collation, we propose to conduct five workshops in East Africa with scientists, managers and stakeholders to: develop conceptual and methodological tools, plan scenarios, obtain model parameters, conduct multi-criteria analysis, and reflect and disseminate results. Workshops will be closely facilitated towards specific objectives. The methods, experiences and learning will be disseminated amongst scientists, and policy makers to support the ESPA programme. The proposed project will provide a framework to study trade-offs in ecosystem services and facilitate the discussion of sharing of costs and benefits between users groups and in designing policy options. Particularly, the approach will help increase the recognition of the poor-group in policy discussion related to ecosystem services, and thus contribute to developing policies that alleviate poverty.