Multi-Model Evaluation of the Global Marine Methane Hydrate Inventory

甲烷以水合物的形式被困在世界上许多大陆边缘的海底沉积物中-一种有效储存甲烷的冰状固体。水合物代表了巨大的碳储存，估计与传统的石油和天然气储量相当。随着海底附近的沃茨变暖，允许水合物存在的热条件可能会恶化。这可能导致沉积物中水合物的分解，随后释放甲烷。甲烷是一种强大的温室气体，它释放到大气中会导致进一步的变暖-这可能导致一个正反馈循环，其中进一步的水合物分解。随着水合物分解，周围的沉积物可能会变弱。这可能导致沉积物柱的结构故障，并可能导致海底滑坡。地质记录中有一些例子表明，水化物分解与造成大规模沉积物破坏和海底滑坡有关。其中之一是挪威海岸的Storegga滑坡，大约8,000年前发生了一次海底滑坡，引发了一场远达英格兰北方的海啸。北极和大西洋地区周围的许多地区仍然可能容易发生边坡失稳。与海啸（即灾难性洪水）相关的危险激发了我们提高水合物库存知识的愿望。CMIP 5项目旨在比较世界领先的最先进的气候模型模拟当前气候和预测未来气候变化的能力。因此，CMIP 5提供了一个独特的机会，以发展我们对海底当前和未来状况的了解。利用这一洞察力，该项目旨在改进当前水合物库存的重建，并模拟未来气候变化下水合物库存的变化。

Methane is trapped in seafloor sediments of many of the world's continental margins in the form of hydrate - an ice-like solid that efficiently stores methane. Hydrates represent an immense carbon store, estimated to be comparable to conventional oil and gas reserves. As waters near the sea-floor warms, the thermal conditions that permit hydrate to exist may deteriorate. This may lead to the breakup of hydrate within the sediment with the subsequent release of methane. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, its release into the atmosphere leads to further warming - this could lead to a positive feedback loop in which further hydrate is disassociated.Hydrate also acts to cement and strengthen sediment. As hydrate breaks-down, the surrounding sediment may weaken. This can lead to a structural failure of the sediment column and potentially causing a submarine landslide. The geological record contains examples where hydrate disassociation has been implicated in causing large-scale sediment failure and submarine landslides. One of these is the Storegga slide off the Norwegian coast, when around 8,000 years ago a submarine landslide occurred, triggerring a tsunami that reached as far as northern England. Many areas around the Arctic and Atlantic regions remain potentially susceptible to slope failure. The hazard associated with associated tsunamis (i.e. catastrophic flooding) motivates a desire to improve our knowledge of the hydrate inventory.The CMIP5 project is designed to compare the worlds leading state-of-the-art climate models in their ability to model the present climate and make predictions of future climate change. CMIP5 therefore provides a unique opportunity to develope our understanding of the current and future conditions at the sea floor. Using this insight, this project aims to create improved reconstructions of the current hydrate inventory and model how this may change under future climate change.