Planning for floods and droughts in the face of climate change - a continuum approach

在过去的十年里，与水相关的风险已经成为英国社会面临的气候变化的主要症状。据估计，在25年内，洪水损失可能会给英国经济带来100亿英镑的损失，而在未来30-100年内，与降水有关的风险将在整个英国增加2-4倍（Foresight, 2004）。反复发生的引人注目的洪水事件导致公众和政策对这一风险的认识提高。然而，与洪水相对应的干旱却很少受到关注。尽管2003年欧洲大范围的干旱造成了87亿欧元的相关损失（欧盟委员会，2007年）。虽然乍一看，水太多的危害可能与水太少的威胁并存，这似乎是违反直觉的，但这在英国是一个新兴现象。在2007年的洪水之前，有两年的热浪和干旱（Pitt, 2008），在2009-10年，英国面临的降雨量低于长期平均水平，并在一些地区伴有干旱（欧盟委员会，2011）。正如全球变暖导致了更温暖、更潮湿的冬天一样，全球气温的升高也可能导致陆地表面蒸发程度的提高，从而导致一些地区的干旱和下沉。虽然气候变化的趋势是可以辨别的，但预测问题更大；洪水和干旱都具有高度的不确定性、不可预测性和突发性。因此，有效的缓解战略需要多维度的、涉及相关利益攸关方并跨越监管、文化认知和规范领域的新颖应对措施。本研究项目采用综合方法来了解气候变化对水环境的扰动。这是通过将水管理视为从供过于求到供过于求的连续统一体来实现的，而不是把重点放在供水极端情况的公开表现上，即洪水和干旱。通过采用这一视角，可以确定跨不同形式的水相关风险的共性，以及有效管理和减轻风险的障碍。通过使用传统和新颖的研究策略收集和分析主要和次要数据，将开发一个基于证据的框架，以协助跨机构和跨利益相关者群体的决策和行为。该框架应通过对一系列学科的学术文献进行初步文献综述来提供信息，包括：风险感知和沟通；从自然科学和工程的角度看水流和集水区；政治和法律视角的治理和监管，风险管理和战略视角的资源利用，能力和决策和国家/国际最佳实践。从与相关利益相关者的深入访谈中收集的丰富数据将为研究策略增加定性维度。在约克郡地区的一个案例研究中，从社交媒体上捕获的关于洪水/干旱的实时数据将为拟议的框架做出新的贡献，允许将从利益相关者的感知、沟通和行为的实时数据中得出的推论纳入不同程度的洪水和干旱风险。实际上，该框架应将学术、政策和实践发现转化为可用于增强利益相关者行为和决策的工具。然后可以通过邀请利益相关者参加的两个验证研讨会来测试这个综合框架，从而确保该研究产出的稳健性。在研究项目的后期阶段，研究人员和研究伙伴将探讨进一步试验框架的机会，以及为进一步发展这种综合方法提供资金的潜在来源和合作伙伴。

Over the past ten years, water related risks have emerged as key symptoms of climate change faced by UK society. It has been estimated that flood damage could account for £10bn to the UK economy in 25 years and that risks relating to precipitation, over the next 30-100 years, will increase by 2-4 times across the UK (Foresight, 2004). Repeated high profile flooding events have resulted in heightened public and policy perceptions of this risk. However, the counterpart of flooding, drought, has received much less attention. This is despite the fact that 2003 saw a Europe wide drought with associated costs of Euro8.7bn (Commission of the EC, 2007). Whilst at first glance, it appears counter-intuitive that the hazard of too much water might co-exist with the threat of too little water, this is an emerging phenomenon in the UK. The 2007 floods were preceded by two years of heat waves and droughts (Pitt, 2008) and in 2009-10, the UK faced rainfall levels lower than the long term average and accompanying drought in some areas (Commission of the EC, 2011). Just as global warming is leading to milder, wetter winters, so too, increases in global temperatures are also likely to lead to greater levels of evaporation from the land surface resulting in drought in some areas as well as subsidence. Whilst trends in climate change are discernible, forecasting is more problematic; both flooding and drought are characterised by high levels of uncertainty, unpredictability and emergence. Consequently, novel responses that are multi-dimensional, involving relevant stakeholders and spanning regulative, cultural-cognitive and normative domains are required for effective mitigation strategies. This research project adopts an integrative approach to understanding climate change perturbations to the water environment. This is achieved through viewing water management as a continuum from over-supply to under-supply, rather than focussing upon overt manifestations of water supply extremes i.e. flood and drought. By adopting this lens, commonalities which extend across different forms of water related risk can be identified, as can barriers to effective management and mitigation. Through the collection and analysis of primary and secondary data using both traditional and novel research strategies, an evidence based framework will be developed to assist decision making across institutions and behaviours across stakeholder groups. This framework shall be informed by an initial literature review drawing upon academic literature across a range of disciplines, including: risk perception and communication; natural sciences and engineering perspectives on water flows and catchment; political and legal perspectives on governance and regulation, risk management and strategic perspectives on resource utilisation, capabilities and decision making and national/international best practice. Rich data gathered from in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders shall add a qualitative dimension to the research strategy. Live data on flood/drought captured from social media for a case study in the Yorkshire region shall make a novel contribution to the proposed framework by allowing the incorporation of inferences derived from real time data on stakeholder perceptions, communications and behaviours to varying levels of flood and drought risk. In effect, the framework shall translate the academic, policy and practice findings into a tool which can be utilised to enhance stakeholder behaviour and decision making. This integrated framework can then be tested through two validation workshops where stakeholders will be invited participants thereby ensuring the robustness of this research output. During the later stages of the research project, opportunities for further trialling of the framework as well as potential sources and partners for funding the further development of this integrated approach will be explored by the researcher and the research partners.