Biodiversity Theory for Understanding the Effects of Habitat Fragmentation at Multiple Scales

生物多样性，地球上生命的巨大多样性，正在下降，物种以惊人的速度灭绝。因此，迫切需要更好地了解生物多样性以及它如何对人类改变自然世界的方式作出反应。该项目的主要重点是破碎化：不同生境区域的分离。当人类活动造成碎片化时，例如通过将农场或其他改变的景观之间的热带雨林分割开来，这可能对生物多样性产生破坏性影响。然而，奇怪的是，地理过程，如岛屿和山脉的形成，留下了孤立的生境片段，但被认为通过促进新物种的创造来增加生物多样性。重新连接这些自然隔离的景观也会引入与本地物种竞争的外来物种，从而破坏生物多样性。这个项目将开发一套统一的工具来研究人类引起的和地理形式的碎片化和重新连接。我将使用"中性模型"作为生物多样性模拟的基础。中性模型通常假设一组关于生物体如何相互作用的基本规则，但我将开发使它们更现实的方法。例如，允许不同类型的物种存在于不同的栖息地，并允许某些物种进化出轻微的竞争优势。我开发的方法使这些模型能够有效地模拟，即使是在具有许多不同形状和大小的碎片的复杂景观上。我对岛屿上的生物多样性和进化历史模式特别感兴趣，我计划用我的模型来研究岛屿系统的进化及其对地质变化的反应。然后，我将进一步预测人类对岛屿的影响，例如全球交通网络的影响，这些影响导致物种人为迁移到孤立的地方。这项工作很重要，因为能够了解生物多样性及其对变化的反应是最大限度地减少我们对所依赖环境的影响的第一步。诸如破碎化等环境变化给我们留下了“灭绝债务”，这是一种需要在未来某个时候偿还的物种保护债务。本计画所建构之模型，其目的之一是改善绝灭债预测方法。我将测试这些模型的数据显示，通过创建油棕榈种植园的热带森林碎片的影响。除了我的中心研究工作之外，我将继续在www.example.com上改进我的公共宣传项目，这是一个新颖而受欢迎的网站，公众可以在那里探索生命之树，并了解不同物种是如何通过进化联系起来的。发布十个月后，它已经被频繁地用于教学，作为科学家的工具，并在公共场所展出。OneZoom可以将无限数量的信息放在一个虚拟页面上，通过缩放直观地探索。我希望扩大和加强OneZoom，让更多的人发现生物多样性的美丽和进化的优雅。我发现这个提案中的工作令人兴奋，因为它解决了社会的重要问题。我的工作将侧重于了解生物多样性及其对变化的反应;这是对保护做出明智决策的第一步，以尽量减少我们对自然世界的影响。此外，我的项目包含重大的技术挑战，这将充分利用我在生物学，数学和计算方面的现有技能。我相信，计算机模拟，如我在这个项目中提出的，将在未来的生态学和保护研究中发挥越来越重要的作用;我很高兴有机会在未来发挥作用。

Biodiversity, the huge variety of life on earth, is declining with species going extinct at a frightening rate. Consequently, there is a pressing need to better understand biodiversity and how it reacts to the way humans are changing the natural world. The main focus of this project is on fragmentation: the separation of different areas of habitat. When human activities cause fragmentation, for example by separating chunks of rainforest between farms or other altered landscapes, this can have devastating effects on biodiversity. Paradoxically, however, geographic processes, such as the formation of islands and mountain ranges, leave isolated fragments of habitat, but are thought to increase biodiversity by fostering the creation of new species. Reconnecting such naturally isolated landscapes can also be damaging for biodiversity by introducing alien species that compete with the native species. This project will develop a unified set of tools to study both human induced and geographic forms of fragmentation and reconnection.I will use "neutral models" as a foundation for simulations of biodiversity. Neutral models typically assume a basic set of rules about how organisms interact, but I will develop ways to make them more realistic. For example, by allowing for different types of species to exist in different habitats and allowing some species to evolve slight competitive advantages. Methods I have developed enable these models to be simulated efficiently, even on complex landscapes with many fragments of different shapes and sizes. I am especially interested in patterns of biodiversity and evolutionary history on islands and I plan to use my models to study evolution on island systems and its response to geological changes. I will then progress to predict the effects of human impacts on islands such as those of global transport networks that cause the artificial movement of species to isolated places. This work is important because being able to understand biodiversity and how it responds to change is the first step towards minimising our impacts on the environment we rely on.The effects of recent fragmentation events are not all necessarily seen immediately. Environmental changes such as fragmentation leave us with an "extinction debt", a debt of species extinctions that needs to be paid at some point in the future. One aim of the models constructed in this project is to improve methods of predicting extinction debt. I will test these models with data showing the effects of fragmenting a tropical forest by the creation of oil palm plantations. In addition to my central research work, I will continue to improve my public outreach project at www.onezoom.org, a novel and popular website where members of the public can explore the tree of life, and see how different species are related through evolution. Ten months after release it has already been frequently used for teaching, as a tool by scientists, and in displays at public venues. OneZoom can place unlimited amounts of information onto one virtual page that is explored intuitively by zooming. I hope to expand and enhance OneZoom to enable more people to discover the beauty of biodiversity and the elegance of evolution.I find the work in this proposal exciting because it addresses import issues for society. My work will focus on understanding biodiversity and how it responds to change; this is the first step towards making informed decisions about conservation to minimise our impacts on the natural world. Furthermore, my project contains significant technical challenges, which will make the best use of my existing skills in biology, maths and computing. I believe that computer simulations such as the ones I propose in this project will have an increasingly important role in future research into ecology and conservation; I am excited to have the chance to play a role in that future.