Volcanic Ash Hazard to UK Nuclear Generating Facilities

火山灰是分布最广、最频繁的危险火山现象，90%以上的火山喷发都会产生火山灰。2010年冰岛Eyjafjallajökull火山爆发以及由此导致的北欧领空关闭，让人们关注到即使是相对较小的火山喷发也会影响到国际范围。现在重要的是要严格评估邻近地区的火山对英国核电设施的潜在影响。厚厚的火山灰堆积可能会使一个地点暂时无法操作，但在核设施附近即使是极小的（几毫米）火山灰沉积也有可能破坏正常操作。这一建议将产生一个强有力的、透明的和广泛适用的方法来评估火山灰威胁英国核设施的可能性。这将基于由布里斯托尔大学nerc资助的科学开发的最先进的概率危害评估方法，以及新的知识交流机制和合作研究链，以适应与英国核工业相关的低概率事件的特殊情况。危害评估将直接与场地管理变化的案例研究联系起来，以减轻这种危害，而且方法将故意透明和通用，以便适用于拥有核或其他敏感高科技场地的其他火山地区。该项目是通过与法国电力能源公司的持续讨论开发的，通过该项目获得的技能、工具和产出将被转移到更广泛的火山危害评估利益相关者社区，并从中受益。该项目以来自STREVA、CREDIBLE和VANAHEIM联合项目以及全球火山模型（GVM）网络的NERC科学成果为基础，由五个部分组成：1。2.英国地区有可能分散火山灰的区域性火山喷发源参数特征，以及影响火山灰从喷发源向特定地点转移的气象条件；2 .与法国电力公司和学术界的专家一起举办研讨会，为火山活动的可能性和现场影响的可能性与核工业程序、标准和监管要求建立基本框架；3 .一个概率框架，用于模拟多个火山产生的空中和地面区域灰烬危害，以及英国核设施灰烬危害的可视化；一套新的火山活动时核设施准备和管理议定书；4 .实施成本、业务中断、供应链问题的初步估计；编写和传播报告和科学论文，介绍低概率火山活动的危害评估方法。该项目将为英国的火山遗址提供量化的火山灰危害评估。主要的好处是提高了对可信的，虽然极端的（一万年一次）火山灰对英国核电站运行的危害的理解。火山灰的深远影响意味着根据该项目的调查结果制定的备灾和减灾战略将防止不可预见的核安全后果，并有助于确保向联合王国人口供应电力的可靠性。交流的知识将产生各种影响，从制定有关火山灰危害管理的新的知情决策，到必要时可能设计的缓解措施和程序。法国电力能源公司致力于描述火山灰对其核设施造成的危害。这个项目是理解这个问题的第一部分，可以确定进一步的研究和知识交流需求。

Volcanic ash is the most widespread and frequent hazardous volcanic phenomenon, being produced in over 90% of all eruptions. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland and the resulting closure of Northern European airspace has focused attention on the international reach of ash even from relatively small volcanic eruptions. It is now important to rigorously assess potential impacts on nuclear power facilities in the UK from volcanoes in neighbouring regions. Thick volcanic ash accumulation might render a site temporarily inoperable but even minimal (a few mm) ash deposition in the vicinity of a nuclear facility has the potential to disrupt normal operations. This proposal will result in a robust, transparent and broadly-applicable methodology for evaluating the likelihood of volcanic ash threatening UK nuclear facilities. This will be based on state-of-the-art probabilistic hazard assessment methodologies developed through NERC-funded science at the University of Bristol, with new knowledge exchange mechanisms and collaborative research strands to adapt to the special circumstances of low probability events relevant to the UK nuclear industry. The hazard assessment will be directly linked to a case study of site management changes to mitigate this hazard, and the methodology will be intentionally transparent and generic to allow application to other volcanic regions hosting nuclear or other sensitive high-tech sites. This project has been developed through ongoing discussions with EDF Energy, and the skills, tools and outputs acquired through the project will be transferable to, and of benefit for, a wider range of the volcanic hazard assessment stakeholder community. The project builds on NERC science outputs from the consortium projects STREVA,CREDIBLE and VANAHEIM and also the Global Volcano Model (GVM) network, and consists of five components:1. characterisation of eruption source parameters at regional volcanoes with potential to disperse ash over the UK, and the meteorological conditions affecting ash transport from eruption source to specific location;2. a workshop with experts from EDF Energy and from academia to create the essential framework for relating volcanic activity probabilities and likelihood of site impacts to nuclear industry procedures, standards and regulatory requirements;3. a probabilistic framework for modelling airborne and ground-based regional ash hazard arising from multiple volcanoes, and visualisation of ash hazard at UK nuclear facilities;4. a new set of protocols for nuclear site preparedness and management in the event of volcanic activity; preliminary estimation of implementation costs, business disruption and supply chain issues;5. generation and dissemination of reports and a scientific paper presenting the hazard assessment methodology for low probability volcanic activity.The project will provide a quantified volcanic ash hazard assessment for UK sites. The main benefit is improved understanding of credible, though extreme (1 in 10,000 year), volcanic ash hazard on the operation of nuclear power plants in the UK. The far-reaching impacts of volcanic ash means that preparedness and mitigation strategies developed on the basis of findings from this project will protect against unforeseen nuclear safety consequences and help ensure the reliability of electricity supply to the population of the UK. The impact of the exchanged knowledge will range from the development of new informed decision-making concerning the volcanic ash hazard management to the potential design of mitigation measures and procedures if required.EDF Energy Generation is committed to characterising the hazard due to volcanic ash for its nuclear sites. This project forms the first part of understanding this problem and may identify further research and Knowledge Exchange needs.