Philippines - Quantitative Lahar Impact and Loss Assessment under changing Land Use and Climate Scenarios

火山泥流是火山泥流，通常发生在火山爆发期间和之后，当时火山沉积的灰烬被降雨重新激活。火山泥流是对人民的一个重大危害，经常造成死亡和社区流离失所。由于菲律宾有大量爆发性火山和热带气候，火山泥流是一种特殊的危险。本提案的目的是开发一个综合的、连贯的火山泥流模型，从火山侧翼集水区的生成到其对建筑环境的影响。这项研究是由布里斯托大学和菲律宾火山学和地震学研究所（PHIVOLCS）在菲律宾的一次活火山危机期间共同开发的，当时马荣山爆发并产生火山泥流。该项目将通过绘制敏感性和影响图来推进拉哈尔灾害评估，其中的影响是从对拉哈尔淹没和损害的预测中推断出来的。该提案将在结合水文和灾害建模、沉积学、地貌学和水文地质学方面的专业知识的基础上，在英国和菲律宾合作伙伴之间建立新的合作。我们的研究将开发新的，并应用新的模型与最近的火山灰沉积集水区的水文，这些环境在菲律宾进行的实地研究告知。这将使降雨预报能够传播到拉哈尔源条件，包括未来气候和土地使用情况。集水区水文学将与拉哈尔运动模型相关联，以便能够评估拉哈尔淹没和对远离火山的城市地区的物理影响。我们将应用高分辨率的动力学模型来预测建筑物尺度上的拉哈尔运动。关于火山泥流对结构影响的新数学模型将提供评估建筑环境对火山泥流的物理脆弱性的方法。这一综合办法将首次允许对各种规模的拉哈尔灾害进行全面评估，为今后量化拉哈尔风险提供基础，并将支持预警系统的设计。该项目将提高菲律宾和其他有活火山的热带国家的拉哈尔灾害评估能力，并提高水文气象灾害、气候变化、城市化和土地使用变化相关风险动态方面的能力。案例研究地点的选择是为了提供由于气候和土地使用变化而不断变化的暴露以及农村和城市周边环境的组合。

Lahars are volcanic mudflows that often occur during and after volcanic eruptions when ash deposited from the volcano is remobilized by rainfall. Lahars are a major hazard to people, often resulting in fatalities and displacement of communities. Lahars are a particular hazard in the Philippines due to the large number of volcanoes that erupt explosively and the tropical climate.The aim of this proposal is to develop an integrated, coherent model of lahars from their generation in catchments on volcanic flanks to their impacts on the build environment. This study has been co-developed between the University of Bristol and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) during an active volcanic crisis in the Philippines, with Mt Mayon erupting and producing lahars. The project will advance lahar hazard assessment through the development of susceptibility and impact mapping, where the impacts are inferred from a convolution of predictions of lahar inundation and damage. The proposal will develop a new collaboration between UK and Philippines partners, based on combining expertise in hydrological and hazard modelling, sedimentology, geomorphology and hydrogeology. Our study will develop new and apply new models for the hydrology of catchments with recent ash deposits, informed by field studies of these environments conducted in the Philippines. This will allow rainfall forecasts to be propagated into lahar source conditions, including under future climate and land use settings. The catchment hydrology will be linked to a model of lahar motion, to allow the assessment of lahar inundation and the physical impacts in urban areas further from the volcano. We will apply the dynamic model at high resolution to provide predictions of lahar motion on the building scale. New mathematical modelling on the impacts of lahars on structure will provide methodology for assessing the physical vulnerability of the build environment to lahars. This integrated approach will allow, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the lahar hazards across a range of scales, providing the basis of future quantification of lahar risk, and will support the design of early warning systems. The project will provide advances in capacity for lahar hazard assessment in the Philippines and in other tropical countries with active volcanoes, and in dynamic aspects of risk related to hydrometeorological hazards, climate change, urbanization and land use change. Case study locations have been chosen to provide a combination of changing exposure due to climate and land use changes, and in rural and peri-urban settings.