Philippines - Quantitative Lahar Impact and Loss Assessment under changing Land Use and Climate Scenarios

火山泥流是火山爆发期间和之后经常发生的火山泥流，当时火山沉积的火山灰被降雨重新动员起来。火山泥流对人们是一种重大危害，常常导致死亡和社区流离失所。由于大量的火山爆发和热带气候，火山泥流在菲律宾是一种特别的危险。该提案的目的是建立一个综合的、连贯的火山泥流模型，从火山侧翼集水区的形成到它们对建筑环境的影响。这项研究是布里斯托尔大学和菲律宾火山学和地震学研究所（PHIVOLCS）在菲律宾活火山危机期间共同开展的，当时马荣火山爆发并产生了火山泥流。该项目将通过开发易感性和影响绘图来推进火山泥流危害评估，其中影响是根据对火山泥流淹没和破坏的预测综合推断出来的。该提案将在英国和菲律宾合作伙伴之间建立一种新的合作关系，其基础是结合水文和灾害建模、沉积学、地貌学和水文地质学方面的专业知识。我们的研究将根据在菲律宾进行的这些环境的实地研究，开发新的和应用新的集水区水文学模型。这将使降雨预报能够传播到火山泥流源的条件下，包括在未来的气候和土地利用环境下。集水区水文将与火山泥流运动模型联系起来，以便评估火山泥流泛滥和远离火山的城市地区的物理影响。我们将应用高分辨率的动态模型来预测建筑尺度上的火山泥流运动。关于火山泥流对结构影响的新数学模型将为评估建筑环境对火山泥流的物理脆弱性提供方法。这种综合方法将首次允许对一系列规模的火山泥流危害进行全面评估，为未来火山泥流风险的量化提供基础，并将支持早期预警系统的设计。该项目将提高菲律宾和其他有活火山的热带国家的火山泥流灾害评估能力，并提高与水文气象灾害、气候变化、城市化和土地利用变化有关的风险动态方面的能力。案例研究地点的选择是为了结合气候和土地利用变化导致的暴露变化，以及农村和城郊环境。

Lahars are volcanic mudflows that often occur during and after volcanic eruptions when ash deposited from the volcano is remobilized by rainfall. Lahars are a major hazard to people, often resulting in fatalities and displacement of communities. Lahars are a particular hazard in the Philippines due to the large number of volcanoes that erupt explosively and the tropical climate.The aim of this proposal is to develop an integrated, coherent model of lahars from their generation in catchments on volcanic flanks to their impacts on the build environment. This study has been co-developed between the University of Bristol and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) during an active volcanic crisis in the Philippines, with Mt Mayon erupting and producing lahars. The project will advance lahar hazard assessment through the development of susceptibility and impact mapping, where the impacts are inferred from a convolution of predictions of lahar inundation and damage. The proposal will develop a new collaboration between UK and Philippines partners, based on combining expertise in hydrological and hazard modelling, sedimentology, geomorphology and hydrogeology. Our study will develop new and apply new models for the hydrology of catchments with recent ash deposits, informed by field studies of these environments conducted in the Philippines. This will allow rainfall forecasts to be propagated into lahar source conditions, including under future climate and land use settings. The catchment hydrology will be linked to a model of lahar motion, to allow the assessment of lahar inundation and the physical impacts in urban areas further from the volcano. We will apply the dynamic model at high resolution to provide predictions of lahar motion on the building scale. New mathematical modelling on the impacts of lahars on structure will provide methodology for assessing the physical vulnerability of the build environment to lahars. This integrated approach will allow, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the lahar hazards across a range of scales, providing the basis of future quantification of lahar risk, and will support the design of early warning systems. The project will provide advances in capacity for lahar hazard assessment in the Philippines and in other tropical countries with active volcanoes, and in dynamic aspects of risk related to hydrometeorological hazards, climate change, urbanization and land use change. Case study locations have been chosen to provide a combination of changing exposure due to climate and land use changes, and in rural and peri-urban settings.