Philippines - Quantitative Lahar Impact and Loss Assessment under changing Land Use and Climate Scenarios

火山泥石流是通常在火山喷发期间和之后发生的火山泥石流，当时从火山沉积下来的火山灰被降雨重新活化。拉哈尔是对人们的重大危害，经常导致社区死亡和流离失所。由于大量火山喷发和热带气候，拉哈尔火山在菲律宾是一个特别危险的地方。这项提议的目的是开发一个从火山侧翼集水区产生的拉哈尔火山到它们对建筑环境的影响的综合、连贯的模型。这项研究是布里斯托尔大学和菲律宾火山与地震研究所(PHIVOLCS)在菲律宾一次活跃的火山危机期间共同开发的，当时马荣火山正在喷发并产生拉哈尔火山。该项目将通过开发敏感性和影响图来推进岩溶危险评估，其中影响是从岩溶淹没和损害预测的卷积中推断出来的。该提案将在英国和菲律宾合作伙伴之间发展一种新的合作，其基础是结合水文和灾害建模、沉积学、地貌学和水文地质学方面的专业知识。我们的研究将开发新的和应用新的水文学模型，用于最近有火山灰沉积的集水区，了解菲律宾对这些环境进行的实地研究的情况。这将使降雨预报能够传播到拉哈尔源条件下，包括在未来的气候和土地利用环境下。集水水文学将与岩溶运动模型相联系，以便评估岩溶淹没及其对远离火山的城市地区的实际影响。我们将应用高分辨率的动力学模型来预测建筑物尺度上的熔岩运动。关于LAHAS对结构的影响的新的数学模型将提供评估建筑环境对LAHAS的物理脆弱性的方法。这一综合办法将首次对各种规模的火山灰危害进行全面评估，为今后量化火山灰风险奠定基础，并将支持早期预警系统的设计。该项目将在菲律宾和其他有活火山的热带国家的岩溶灾害评估能力以及与水文气象灾害、气候变化、城市化和土地利用变化有关的风险的动态方面取得进展。选择了案例研究地点，以提供因气候和土地利用变化以及农村和城市周边环境而发生变化的暴露情况。

Lahars are volcanic mudflows that often occur during and after volcanic eruptions when ash deposited from the volcano is remobilized by rainfall. Lahars are a major hazard to people, often resulting in fatalities and displacement of communities. Lahars are a particular hazard in the Philippines due to the large number of volcanoes that erupt explosively and the tropical climate.The aim of this proposal is to develop an integrated, coherent model of lahars from their generation in catchments on volcanic flanks to their impacts on the build environment. This study has been co-developed between the University of Bristol and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) during an active volcanic crisis in the Philippines, with Mt Mayon erupting and producing lahars. The project will advance lahar hazard assessment through the development of susceptibility and impact mapping, where the impacts are inferred from a convolution of predictions of lahar inundation and damage. The proposal will develop a new collaboration between UK and Philippines partners, based on combining expertise in hydrological and hazard modelling, sedimentology, geomorphology and hydrogeology. Our study will develop new and apply new models for the hydrology of catchments with recent ash deposits, informed by field studies of these environments conducted in the Philippines. This will allow rainfall forecasts to be propagated into lahar source conditions, including under future climate and land use settings. The catchment hydrology will be linked to a model of lahar motion, to allow the assessment of lahar inundation and the physical impacts in urban areas further from the volcano. We will apply the dynamic model at high resolution to provide predictions of lahar motion on the building scale. New mathematical modelling on the impacts of lahars on structure will provide methodology for assessing the physical vulnerability of the build environment to lahars. This integrated approach will allow, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the lahar hazards across a range of scales, providing the basis of future quantification of lahar risk, and will support the design of early warning systems. The project will provide advances in capacity for lahar hazard assessment in the Philippines and in other tropical countries with active volcanoes, and in dynamic aspects of risk related to hydrometeorological hazards, climate change, urbanization and land use change. Case study locations have been chosen to provide a combination of changing exposure due to climate and land use changes, and in rural and peri-urban settings.