Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

目前气候变化的主要原因是人类活动排放的温室气体增加，使地球升温。由于未来气候变暖可能会对社会造成损害，各国政府正在协调减少温室气体排放的努力，以避免这些破坏性后果。然而，尽管大气中温室气体浓度持续上升，但自1990年代以来，地球表面变暖的速度有所下降。虽然很容易找到一个简单的原因，这种减缓（或“间断”）在全球表面变暖，气候系统是极其复杂的，有许多因素可以解释的肿块和颠簸的表面温度记录，其中也包括增加（或“激增”）在变暖的速度。我们建议的研究计划的目标是更全面地了解所有促成因素如何解释过去的间断和激增（H/S）事件，这最终将有助于改善对未来几十年乃至未来气候变化的预测。H/S事件的潜在原因包括：自然（所谓的非受迫性）气候变异，由于大气、海洋和陆地之间复杂的相互作用;由于火山爆发或太阳亮度变化造成的自然气候变化;由于自然变化或人为因素，热量进入深海的方式发生了变化;由于人类活动，甲烷等气体的排放发生了变化;温度观测分布的局限性，使得间断部分是观测不完善造成的人为现象。而不是一个单一的原因，很可能是H/S事件是由多种因素的组合。这就是为什么需要一个拥有广泛专业知识的大型团队来共同评估不同的流程。我们的项目，确保多学科的理解和预测的间断和浪涌事件（SMURPHS）汇集了来自9个英国研究所的研究人员的综合社区，由5个项目合作伙伴支持，包括气象局，他们是大气，海洋和陆地表面的专家。SMURPHS有3个广泛的目标，通过6个研究主题实现，其中利用理论，观测和详细的计算机建模。目标1是建立一个基本框架，解释的能量在大气和海洋之间的移动的H/S事件，并确定的H/S事件之间的特征和相似性。目标2是了解可能触发H/S事件并延长其长度的机制，考虑人为因素和自然因素。目标3是评估H/S事件是否可以预测，以及未来几十年的气候短期预测需要哪些信息，这对社会如何适应变化很重要。为了实现这些目标，来自一系列不同学科的科学家将研究这些可能性，并在整个团队中交流他们的发现。SMURPHS将对其成果进行广泛的综合，并将有许多受益者。在全球科学界之外，提高对高温/高温事件的认识在国家和国际层面对于制定控制未来温室气体排放和有效适应气候变化的政策非常重要。政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）的评估对国际和国家两级的气候政策制定产生了深刻影响。参与SMURPHS的科学家为气专委以前的报告作出了重大贡献，SMURPHS的科学和科学家将为今后的此类评估作出重大贡献。

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.