SANDPIT: Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals (IAGP)

SANDPIT：地球工程提案综合评估 (IAGP)

• 批准号: EP/I014721/1
• 负责人: Piers Forster
• 金额: $ 220.29万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FI014721%2F1
• 关键词: SANDPIT; Integrated; Assessment; Geoengineering; Proposals

There is international consensus that dangerous levels of climate change must be avoided. Yet without radical changes in the ways energy is sourced and used, analyses suggest that there is a very real risk that the Earth will start to experience unacceptably damaging and disruptive environmental change later this century. What future actions can be taken to safeguard environmental quality, ecosystems, agriculture, economy, and societies if the conventional approaches to tackling climate change, through mitigation and adaptation, prove insufficient? Could we take direct control of our planet's temperature in an emergency? Deliberately manipulating the Earth's climate is not a novel idea, however increasing awareness and concern about the potentially serious nature of a much warmer climate has led to recent debates regarding the ethics and feasibility of making a direct intervention in the Earth's climate and natural systems to counteract global warming and the other known impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.As this new research field, known as 'geoengineering', has gained in international profile, ideas for either removing CO2 from the atmosphere or directly altering the amount of sunlight absorbed at the surface have proliferated. Suggested means of removing CO2 span marine and terrestrial biospheres, from enhancing marine productivity by fertilizing the surface of the ocean with nutrients, to adding lime to neutralize the CO2 acidity. Direct cooling of the surface could potentially be done by injecting sulphate aerosols into the atmosphere or planting more reflective varieties of crops. However, despite the effort and scientific ingenuity being brought to bear in thinking up different geoengineering schemes, all remain un-quantified in their effectiveness, particularly at the regional scale. Some are unlikely ever to work as envisaged, and many contain the potential for undesirable climatic side-effects and risks to the environment and to society. Currently we have insufficient information to inform the debate we need to have on geoengineering. The Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals ('IAGP') is an interdisciplinary project which will begin to address this gap in our knowledge, paying particular attention to the potential for side-effects and unanticipated consequences of geoengineering schemes. The project will develop a comprehensive evaluation framework (involving stakeholders and publics), which will allow an in-depth comparison of all major geoengineering proposals. The project research tools will include state-of-the-art computer representations of the Earth system, accounting for ocean circulation, sea-ice, and greenhouse warming and atmospheric processes and dynamics, as well as the cycling of carbon and nutrients within the ocean. Important questions to be addressed include: whether different technologies can be combined to maximize mitigation benefits and minimize unwanted risks, how might geoengineering schemes be adequately controlled and 'turned off' quickly if needed, how to include the public's views in how benefits and side-effects are defined in order for policy-makers to take informed decisions. The project combines Earth system modelling and deliberative engagement with stakeholders and publics to ensure the evaluation is accountable to a variety of values and criteria and ensures that issues and society's values are centrally incorporated within the evaluation.The results of our analysis of the effectiveness and implications of different CO2 removal and direct cooling schemes will not only have direct policy relevance through informing decisions about our global environmental future, but will be carefully tailored to give wider audiences information in a sufficiently clear and meaningful way that the debates surrounding geoengineering can be progressed further within society.

国际社会一致认为，必须避免气候变化达到危险的程度。然而，如果不彻底改变能源的来源和使用方式，分析表明，地球将在本世纪晚些时候开始经历不可接受的破坏性和破坏性环境变化，这是一个非常真实的风险。如果通过减缓和适应来应对气候变化的传统方法证明是不够的，那么未来可以采取哪些行动来保护环境质量、生态系统、农业、经济和社会？我们能在紧急情况下直接控制地球的温度吗？故意操纵地球气候并不是一个新的想法，然而，越来越多的认识和关注的潜在严重性，一个更温暖的气候导致了最近的辩论，关于道德和可行性的直接干预地球的气候和自然系统，以抵消全球变暖和其他已知的影响，增加温室气体浓度。作为这个新的研究领域，被称为“地球工程”的技术在国际上获得了广泛的关注，从大气中去除二氧化碳或直接改变地表吸收的阳光量的想法已经激增。去除二氧化碳的方法涵盖了海洋和陆地生物圈，从用营养物质覆盖海洋表面来提高海洋生产力，到加入石灰来中和二氧化碳的酸性。通过向大气中注入硫酸盐气溶胶或种植更具反射性的作物品种，可以直接冷却地表。然而，尽管在思考不同的地球工程计划方面付出了努力和科学创造力，但所有这些计划的有效性仍然无法量化，特别是在区域范围内。其中一些不太可能如设想的那样发挥作用，而许多则有可能产生不良的气候副作用，并对环境和社会构成风险。目前，我们没有足够的信息为我们需要进行的关于地球工程的辩论提供信息。地球工程提案综合评估（“IAGP”）是一个跨学科的项目，将开始解决我们知识中的这一差距，特别注意潜在的副作用和地球工程计划的意外后果。该项目将制定一个全面的评价框架（涉及利益攸关方和公众），以便对所有主要的地球工程提案进行深入比较。该项目的研究工具将包括最先进的地球系统计算机图示，说明海洋环流、海冰、温室升温和大气过程和动态，以及海洋内碳和营养物的循环。需要解决的重要问题包括：是否可以将不同的技术结合起来，以最大限度地提高缓解效益并最大限度地减少不必要的风险，如何充分控制地球工程计划并在必要时迅速“关闭”，如何将公众的意见纳入利益和副作用的定义中，以便政策制定者做出明智的决定。该项目结合了地球系统建模和与利益相关者和公众的协商参与，以确保评估对各种价值观和标准负责，并确保问题和社会价值观集中纳入评估。我们对不同CO2去除和直接冷却方案的有效性和影响的分析结果不仅通过为我们的决策提供信息而具有直接的政策相关性，地球工程学是全球环境未来的一部分，但将仔细加以调整，以便以足够明确和有意义的方式向更广泛的受众提供信息，使围绕地球工程的辩论能够在社会中进一步取得进展。

项目成果

Can increasing albedo of existing ship wakes reduce climate change?

增加现有船舶尾迹的反照率可以减少气候变化吗？

• DOI: 10.1002/2015jd024201
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Atmospheres
• 作者: Crook J

Perceptions of geoengineering: public attitudes, stakeholder perspectives, and the challenge of 'upstream' engagement

• DOI: 10.1002/wcc.176
• 发表时间: 2012-09-01
• 期刊: WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 9.2
• 作者: Corner, Adam;Pidgeon, Nick;Parkhill, Karen
• 通讯作者: Parkhill, Karen

Geoengineering, climate change scepticism and the 'moral hazard' argument: an experimental study of UK public perceptions.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0063
• 发表时间: 2014-12-28
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Corner A;Pidgeon N
• 通讯作者: Pidgeon N

Like artificial trees? The effect of framing by natural analogy on public perceptions of geoengineering

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1148-6
• 发表时间: 2015-06-01
• 期刊: CLIMATIC CHANGE
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Corner, Adam;Pidgeon, Nick
• 通讯作者: Pidgeon, Nick

'Opening up' geoengineering appraisal: Multi-Criteria Mapping of options for tackling climate change

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.011
• 发表时间: 2013-10-01
• 期刊: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Bellamy, Rob;Chilvers, Jason;Lenton, Timothy M.
• 通讯作者: Lenton, Timothy M.