Pan-participatory Assessment and Governance of Earthquake Risks in the Ordos Area (PAGER-O)

鄂尔多斯地区人口约8000万，其中约一半居住在大城市，这些大城市迅速发展，最近围绕着历史上被地震摧毁的小得多的城市的核心。其余的人口是农村人口，住在非常脆弱的建筑物中。该地区遭受了有史以来最致命的三次地震; 1556年华县地震造成80多万人死亡，其他历史地震已知造成10多万人死亡。该项目旨在显著改善该地区的地震危险评估，特别及时，因为研究区域涵盖丝绸之路经济带中国端人口最多的部分，计划投资数千亿美元，将改变欧亚大陆的通信，运输和贸易。这一人群特别脆弱，因为中国大陆在减少地震风险方面存在两个根本性差距。首先，对风险和危害的科学理解与社区设计有效治理实践所需的知识之间存在差距。第二个差距是自上而下和自下而上的减少灾害风险治理方法之间的差距。该项目汇集了来自中国地震局（CEA）、海外发展研究所（ODI）、牛津大学和剑桥大学的团队，开展研究和实际行动，以弥合这些差距。我们的工作将植根于该地区两千年的地震历史记录，这使我们能够研究一套弥合这些差距的方法。在这项工作中，我们将与地方、省、国家和国际各级的研究人员、政策制定者和运营机构密切合作，并与他们合作，整合地方（自下而上）和国家（自上而下）的地震减灾方法。我们将使用现代构造地质学工具来估计该地区历史地震的可能规模。然后，我们将计算地面震动，如果这样的地震再次发生。我们将使用CEA的脆弱性数据库和美国地质调查局的PAGER（全球地震响应快速评估）项目进行损失估计。这些评估将成为科学家和县级及以上决策者之间的合作基础，在县级及以上，立法和实践是自上而下的。同时，我们将与当地社区，村，镇，县官员和当地非政府组织的工作人员合作，通过对该地区小地点的集中研究，探索地震灾害风险的社会根源。我们将与地质灾害国际组织（GHI）合作，根据历史地震制作详细的场景。这种情景已经被证明可以刺激社区产生自己的地震风险缓解策略，我们将使用这种技术作为开发，测试和评估参与式方法的基础，以评估中国自下而上的地震脆弱性和风险。最后，我们将与省级和国家合作伙伴一起探索将这些与自上而下的法律法规和程序联系起来的途径，以建立更好的长期减少地震灾害风险的机制。

The Ordos region has a population of about 80 million, of whom approximately half live within large cities, which have grown rapidly and recently around the nuclei of much smaller cities that are known to have been destroyed by earthquakes in the historical past. The remainder of the population is rural, and live in highly vulnerable buildings. The region has suffered three of the most deadly earthquakes in recorded history; the 1556 Huaxian earthquake was responsible for the deaths of over 800,000 people, and other historical earthquakes are known to have killed over 100,000 people. This project aims to make a significant improvement in the assessment of seismic hazard in the region, and is particularly timely because the study area covers the most populous part of the Chinese end of the Silk Road Economic Belt, a planned investment of hundreds of billions of dollars that will transform communications, transport and trade across Eurasia. This population is particularly vulnerable because there are two fundamental gaps in earthquake-risk reduction in Mainland China First, there is a gap between scientific understanding of the risks and hazards, and the knowledge that communities need in order to design effective practices of governance. The second gap is between the top-down and bottom-up approaches to the governance of disaster risk reduction (DRR). This project brings together teams from the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), and the Universities of Oxford and Cambridge to carry out research and practical action to bridge these gaps. Our work will be rooted in the two-thousand-year historical record of earthquakes in the region, which allows us to investigate a suite of methods for bridging these gaps. In this work, we shall collaborate closely with researchers, policymakers and operational agencies at local, provincial, national and international level, and shall work with them to integrate local (bottom-up) and national (top-down) approaches to earthquake DRR.We shall use tools of modern tectonic geology to estimate probable sizes of the historical earthquakes of the region. Then we shall calculate ground shaking if such an earthquake were to recur. We shall make loss estimates using both the CEA's database of vulnerability and that of the US Geological Survey's PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) project. These estimates will form the basis of engagement between the scientist and policy makers at the county scale and upwards, where legislation and practice are top-down.At the same time, working in partnership with local communities, village, town, and county officials, and staff of local NGOs, we shall explore the social roots of earthquake disaster risk by focussed studies on small sites within the region. We shall partner with Geohazards International (GHI) to produce a detailed scenario based on a historical earthquake. Such scenarios have been shown to stimulate communities to generate their own mitigation strategies for earthquake risk, and we shall use this technique as the basis for developing, testing, and evaluating participatory approaches to assessing earthquake vulnerability and risk from the bottom up in China. Finally, with the provincial and national partners we shall explore routes to link these with top-down laws regulations and procedures to establish improved, long-term, earthquake disaster risk reduction.