Assessing the risk to the coastal and rural road network in Scotland due to the effects of storms and extreme rainfall events

苏格兰交通基础设施面临的主要挑战之一是识别和评估最容易遭受山体滑坡、风暴和洪水破坏的资产。农村和沿海道路网络的脆弱性尤其如此。苏格兰气候变化适应框架（交通）指出，新基础设施的选址和设计必须考虑到洪水和山体滑坡风险增加的可能性。许多沿海地区似乎已经经历了风暴和极端降雨事件的强度增加以及最近的重大事件（例如，A78， Skelmorlie被淹没，西部群岛的重要道路和堤道受到广泛破坏，Stonehaven的山体滑坡以及A83在Rest和be Thankful， Argyll和Bute的反复中断），这些都证明了需要对风险最大的地区进行准确评估并实施潜在的缓解措施。适应苏格兰提供了丰富的现有科学，数据和建议，如何适应日益增加的变化，但有必要开发一个强大的工具，使用它来评估相应的风险和经济影响，有效的终身资产管理。因此，该项目的目的是开发一种强大的风险管理工具，便于资产管理公司评估苏格兰农村公路运输资产面临的威胁，这些资产可能受到极端降雨和风暴以及未来不同气候变化情景的影响。这将由以下目标决定：-通过纳入最近开发的数据集，调整现有的滑坡危害评估框架，使其也能应用于洪水/海岸地质灾害；-制定诊断标准，以评估不同危害的性质（包括对各种危害的易感性以及与资产或道路的空间关系），-通过评估风险要素（道路和道路使用者）及其在多危害环境中的脆弱性，分析对网络基础设施关键区域（地方和主干道）构成的风险；-评估经济影响，为从交通主管部门到地方主管部门的各级利益相关者制定气候变化适应计划和决策提供信息。将审查两个案例研究：(i) A78海岸路地区和（ii）南北乌斯特和本贝库拉与岛屿相连的堤道提供通往西部群岛的重要通道。利益相关者是苏格兰交通局。极端事件，适应，复原力，管理工具。

One of the key challenges for Scottish transport infrastructure is the identification and assessment of assets at greatest risk to damage from landslides, storms and flooding. This is particularly the case with the vulnerability of the rural and coastal road network. The Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Framework (Transport) states that the location and design of new infrastructure, must take account of an increased likelihood of risks from flooding and landslides. Many coastal areas already appear to be experiencing increased intensity of storms and extreme rainfall events and recent high profile events (e.g. inundation of A78, Skelmorlie, extensive damage to vital roads and causeways in the Western Isles, landsliding at Stonehaven and the repeated disruption along the A83 at the Rest and be Thankful, Argyll and Bute attest to the need for an accurate assessment of those areas at greatest risk and for the implementation of potential mitigation measures. Adaptation Scotland provides a wealth of existing science, data and advice on how to adapt in the face of increasing change, but there is a need to develop robust tools for using this to assess the corresponding risk and economic impact for effective whole-life asset management. The aim of the project is therefore to develop a robust risk management tool, easily utilized by asset managers to assess threats to rural road transport assets in Scotland that are likely to be at risk from the effects of extreme rainfall and storms and differing future climate change scenarios. This will be determined by the following objectives:- Adaptation of an existing framework for landslide hazard assessment through the incorporation of recently-developed datasets to allow application also to flooding/coastal geohazards;- Production of diagnostic criteria to assess the nature of the different hazards (these include susceptibility to the various hazards and the spatial relation to the asset or road), - Analysis of the risk posed to key areas of the network infrastructure (local and trunk roads) by means of an assessment of the elements at risk (road and road users) and their vulnerability within a multi-hazard environment;- Assessment of economic impact to inform climate change adaptation plans and decision making for stakeholders at various levels from transport authority to local authority. Two case studies will be examined: (i) A78 Shore Road area and (ii) North and South Uists and Benbecula with island-linked causeways providing vital access to the Western Isles. The stakeholder is Transport Scotland.Keywords. extreme events, adaptation, resilience, management tool.