Determining Extreme Values for the Insurance Sector

一些工业部门需要了解卫星时代以外的极端气候。例子包括保险业，监管机构很快将要求有足够的资本来应对200年一遇的事件；核工业需要准备应对万年一遇的事件。确定这些的常用方法是根据过去50年左右的观测结果进行推断，要么直接推断，要么使用灾变模型。这些估计通常不包括对自然气候变率或气候变化引起的不确定性的量化。这个项目旨在确定这些标准实践所忽略的风险。

Several industrial sectors require knowledge of climate extremes above and beyond those experienced during the satellite era. Examples include the insurance industry where regulators will soon require adequate capital to cover a 1 in 200 year event; and the nuclear industry which is required to prepare against a 1 in 10,000 year event. The common approach to determine these is to extrapolate from observations over the past 50 years or so, either directly or through the use of a catastrophe model. Often these estimates do not include a quantification of the uncertainties arising from either natural climate variability or climate change. This project aims to determine the risks that are missed by these standard practices.