Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecast information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action

干旱和洪灾事件仍然是撒哈拉以南非洲生命和生计的主要威胁，由于人口的高度暴露和脆弱性，对长期发展产生了重大影响。现有的预警系统虽然正在改进，但仍不足以保护弱势人口。由于许多复杂的原因，机构和社区往往只能在灾难发生后才能作出反应，而不能提前作出反应。该项目将解决EWS在面对灾害风险时阻碍有效行动的两个主要限制：1.通过开发改进的天气气候预报和相关的生计影响，提高灾害预报的可信度和针对性，从几天到四个季节的一系列“无缝”准备时间。2.通过发展和试验以预报信息为基础的系统和可防御的办法，克服在灾害事件发生前采取备灾行动的障碍。我们的项目联盟汇集了英国和东非在预测科学、灾害影响和脆弱性方面拥有专业知识的世界知名研究机构，以及负责EWS和人道主义行动的机构。通过建立强大和稳固的现有伙伴关系，我们将确保有效的合作、共同制作和将研究直接纳入实际应用。我们的项目侧重于一套针对肯尼亚旱涝灾害的现有紧急情况预警系统，为实施和快速采纳成果、新方法和工具提供了一个强有力的平台。EWS案例研究既包括城市背景，也包括农村背景，以非洲大部分地区的危险和发展情况为特征。通过我们广泛的联盟网络和并行项目，我们将与非洲各地的类似系统分享好处和教训，并最大限度地增加附加值和物有所值。我们的科学进步将包括以概率形式表示的最先进的天气-气候风险预测的开发和评估。预测技能的物质基础将建立起来。这些产品将与对农业和牧民生计的决策相关影响挂钩。我们的危险风险预测产品以及相关的技能评估，将与运营EWS和计划准备行动的机构共同开发。通过这种方式，我们将确保预测产品的针对性和可信度，使其更适合于推广。我们将把这些新的预测产品纳入领先的在线危险风险门户网站。成功的采用需要与其他信息来源仔细整合，并与不同用户进行有效沟通。至关重要的是，决策者需要对这些信息有信心，但也需要以有效的方式利用这些信息来减少灾害风险。为此，我们将开发和评估基于预测的行动的新方法和实用工具，通过将预测的属性与明确定义的行动计划中的减少风险行动联系起来，克服准备行动的体制和技术障碍，FBA的方法必须考虑到决策环境的现实，在这种情况下，各种行为者具有与风险相关的复杂议程、优先事项和文化。我们将采取一套灵活的策略，在一系列EWS环境中应用这些方法。出于这个原因，我们的示范项目被选为具有其他地区类似背景的特点，并将分享经验教训，并在可能的情况下推广到其他地区。

Drought and flood events remain a major threat to lives and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, with significant impacts on long term development, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of populations. Existing early warning systems (EWS) whilst improving remain insufficient to protect vulnerable populations. Too often agencies and communities are only able to respond after a disaster has occurred rather than in advance, for a number of complex reasons. This project will address two of the primary limitations of EWS that hinder effective action in the face of hazard risks by; 1. Increasing the credibility and pertinence of hazard forecasts, by developing improved weather-climate forecasts and associated livelihood impacts over a range of 'seamless' lead times from days to seasons. 2. Overcoming barriers to preparedness action in advance of hazard events through the development and trialling of systematic and defensible approaches based on forecast information. Our project consortium brings together world-renowned research institutes in the UK and East Africa with expertise in forecasting science, hazard impacts and vulnerability, with agencies responsible for EWS and humanitarian action. By building on strong and well-established existing partnerships we will ensure effective collaboration, co-production and integration of research directly into practical application. Our project focuses on a set of existing EWS for flood and drought in Kenya, providing a strong platform for operationalizing and rapid uptake of results, new approaches and tools. The EWS case studies include both urban and rural contexts and are characteristic of hazard and development situations across much of Africa. Through our extensive consortium networks and parallel projects we will share the benefits and lessons with similar systems across Africa and maximise added value and value for money. Our scientific advances will include development and evaluation of state-of-the-art weather-climate risk forecasts expressed in a probabilistic form. The physical basis of forecast skill will be established. These products will be linked to decision-relevant impacts on agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Our hazard risk forecast products with associated skill assessment, will be co-developed together with those agencies who operate EWS and plan for preparedness actions. In this way we will ensure the pertinence and credibility of forecast products making them more suitable for uptake. We will incorporate these new forecast products into leading on-line hazard risk portals.Successful uptake requires careful integration with other information sources and effective communication to the range of users. Critically, decision makers need to have confidence in the information but also effective ways of using the information for disaster risk reduction. To this end, we will develop and evaluate novel methodologies and practical tools of Forecast based Action that, by linking forecasts' attributes to risk reduction actions in well defined action plans, overcome institutional and technical barriers to preparedness actionThe FbA approaches must take account of the reality of the decision-making context in which the various actors have complex agendas, priorities, and cultures related to risk. We will adopt a set of flexible strategies to apply these approaches within a range of EWS contexts. For this reason, our demonstration projects have been chosen to be characteristic of similar contexts elsewhere and lessons learned will be shared, and generalised where possible, to other regions.