Market assessment for an extreme weather and climate change analytics platform to enhance infrastructure resilience in the global electricity sector

风暴、洪水和热浪等极端事件的增加，以及干旱和生物多样性下降等长期影响，都证明了气候变化的影响。越来越多的组织需要在其运营中建立更大的弹性，以更好地管理这种气候驱动的变化的影响。为了变得更有弹性，他们需要了解极端事件的可能严重性和频率，以及气候变化的长期影响。这就是牛津大学的气候预测系统能够提供帮助的地方：我们可以通过分布式计算系统生成10,000到100,000个气候模型。从这些模型运行中，我们可以提取出与风暴、洪水、干旱等定义剖面相匹配的特定事件。通过天气发生器将这些数据整合到水文、水力、损失、经济和相关模型中，我们将能够为组织提供比迄今为止更可靠和内部一致的气候变化对其运营和业务影响的预测。数据集和模型的整合将通过综合弹性建模平台进行。由nerc资助的干旱预测项目MaRIUS生成的数据集的固有商业价值将通过这一途径实现。通过对水、保险、能源和农业/食品行业的商业部门对复原力信息需求的初步分析发现，能源部门在气候信息方面的支出最大，而且随着东南亚、非洲和南美洲新兴经济体基础设施部署的增加，这一支出还在增加。本次评估将重点关注发电、输电和配电市场中的四个关键利益相关者群体：投资者、工程和环境咨询公司、发电、输电和配电公司以及专业服务提供商。在投资界，气候分析的主要用户是开发银行，尽管投资银行的使用正在增加。进行环境影响评估以支持基础设施规划和部署的工程和环境顾问也是重要的使用者。在这两种情况下，都有一种政治和监管驱动来增加气候信息的使用和可靠性。例如，在COP21谈判的准备阶段，投资界越来越重视气候适应能力，而欧盟要求在2017年3月底之前将气候变化和生物多样性纳入所有环境影响评估。电力公司越来越认识到，气候分析在为其战略规划和运营决策提供信息方面发挥着重要作用。与此同时，气候服务和可持续发展是四大会计师事务所快速增长的服务领域。该评估将详细了解上述利益相关者群体的气候变化信息需求，其目的是首先确定牛津大学弹性分析的发电和输电部门的市场机会规模，其次确定实现其商业潜力的最佳市场进入策略。一旦在电力基础设施领域获得市场吸引力，这些分析就有可能在其他领域商业化，尽管该分析超出了本评估的范围。

The impact of climate change is evidenced by increases in extreme events such as storms, floods and heatwaves as well as longer-term effects such as drought and biodiversity decline. There is a growing requirement for organisations to build greater resilience into their operations to better manage the impacts of such climate-driven changes. In order to become more resilient they need to understand both the likely severity and frequency of extreme events and the longer-term impacts of climate change. This is where Oxford University's climate projection system is able to help:We can generate 10,000s to 100,000s of climate model runs through a distributed computing system. From these model runs, we can extract specific events that match defined profiles for storms, floods, droughts etc. By integrating this data via a weather generator, which generates synthetic weather events, into hydrological, hydraulic, loss, economic and related models we will be able to provide organisations with significantly more robust and internally coherent predictions of the impacts of climate change on their operations and businesses than has been available hitherto. This integration of datasets and models will be via an integrated resilience modelling platform. The inherent commercial value of the dataset generated by a NERC-funded project on drought projection, MaRIUS, will be realised through this route.An initial analysis of the requirements of business sectors for resilience information, looking across the water, insurance, energy and agriculture/food sectors found that the energy sector has the greatest expenditure on climate information and that this is growing as deployment of infrastructure increases in emerging economies in South-East Asia, Africa and South America. This assessment will focus on four key stakeholder groups in the Electricity generation, transmission and distribution market: Investors, Engineering and environmental consultancies, Electricity generation, transmission and distribution companies, and Professional services providers.The primary users of climate analytics in the investment community are development banks, although usage by investment banks is increasing. Engineering and environmental consultants conducting environmental impact assessments (EIAs) in support of the planning and deployment of infrastructure are also important users. In both these cases, there is a political and regulatory drive to increase the use and robustness of climate information. For example, in the run-up to the COP21 negotiations, the investment community is increasing its emphasis on climate resilience while the EU has mandated that climate change and biodiversity must be incorporated into all EIAs by the end of March 2017. There is increasing recognition by electricity companies that climate analytics has an important role in informing both their strategic planning and operational decision-making. At the same time, climate services and sustainability are rapid growth service lines in the Big Four accountancy firms.This assessment will gain a detailed understanding of the climate change information needs of the above stakeholder groups with the aim of identifying first, the scale of the market opportunity in the Electricity generation and transmission sector for Oxford's resilience analytics and, second, the optimal market entry strategy for realising their commercial potential. There is potential to commercialise those analytics in other sectors once market traction has been gained in the Electricity infrastructure sector, although that analysis is outside the scope of this assessment.