Monitoring the impact of the 2015/16 El Nino on rural water insecurity in Ethiopia: learning lessons for climate resilience

埃塞俄比亚正在发展的干旱与2015-2016年持续的强烈厄尔尼诺Niño事件有关，并导致该地区普遍存在粮食和水不安全问题，特别是对生活在偏远农村地区的大量人口而言。虽然各国和国际社会都对粮食不安全问题采取了完善的应对措施，但作为这些地区主要水源的当地泉水和水井的枯竭，让许多人措手不及，越来越多的证据表明，缺水是导致移民的原因。在1997/98年后期的最后一次严重El Niño干旱期间和之后在东非进行的研究表明，获得可靠的地下水资源是提高生计复原力的一个主要因素，特别是对最贫穷的人来说。埃塞俄比亚目前的El Niño-related干旱提供了一个重要的研究机会：(i)收集关于浅层地下水资源（山泉、山谷泉、井、钻孔）在压力下的行为的有力证据；（ii）监察与回收有关的时间、规模及污染问题；（三）评估家庭团体和社区在供水点失效时制定的应对策略。自上次重大El Niño事件以来发展的方法使这成为可能，例如：用于连续测量地下水水位的坚固廉价的传感器，用于指示病原体污染的新型快速方法和一套新的地下水停留时间指标。有了这一新的证据，就有可能确保脆弱社区对未来的干旱具有更强的抵御能力：确定有弹性的水点设计；将测绘工作的目标定位于确定脆弱地区的地区，并为早期预警系统的设计做出贡献。这项研究汇集了来自英国地质调查局、ODI和AAU的经验丰富的团队，他们目前都在埃塞俄比亚工作，得到了雷丁大学气象系的合作伙伴和埃塞俄比亚的各种实施合作伙伴的支持。

The developing drought in Ethiopia is linked to the ongoing strong 2015-2016 El Niño event and is leading to widespread food and water insecurity in the region, particularly for the large numbers of people living in remote rural areas. Whilst there is a well-developed national and international response to food insecurity, the failure of local springs and wells, the primary source of water in these areas, has caught many off guard, with growing evidence that migration is driven by water shortage. Research in east Africa during and since the last major El Niño drought in the late 1997/98, indicates that access to reliable groundwater sources is a major contributory factor to improving livelihood resilience, particularly of the poorest.This current El Niño-related drought in Ethiopia, provides an important research opportunity to: (i) gather robust evidence of the behaviour under stress of shallow groundwater sources (mountain springs, valley springs, wells, boreholes); (ii) monitor the timing, magnitude and contamination issues associated with recovery; and (iii) assess the coping strategies developed by family groups and communities as water points fail. Methods developed since the last major El Niño event make this possible, for example: robust inexpensive sensors for continuously measuring groundwater levels, novel rapid methods for indicating pathogen contamination and a new suite of groundwater residence time indicators. With this new evidence it will be possible to ensure vulnerable communities become more resilient to future droughts by: identifying resilient designs of water point; targeting mapping efforts to areas to identify vulnerable areas, and contributing to the design of early warning systems. The research brings together an experienced team from BGS, ODI, and AAU, all of whom are currently working in Ethiopia, supported by partners in the meteorological department at the University of Reading and various implementation partners in Ethiopia.