Predictive jellyfish bloom dispersal maps for UK coastal electricity generating facilities

水母的突然出现通过冷却水系统的生物污垢对沿海发电站造成严重后果。水母导致的水流减少迫使发电厂降低效率或暂时关闭，作为预防措施以防止过热，这影响了向客户提供电力，给电力供应商带来了巨大的财务成本。一个持续存在的困难在于确定水华的起源以及何时在沿海设施和取水口出现。该提案的主要项目合作伙伴是EDF（核能），但该方法有意通用，以适应其他敏感的沿海地区，因此我们的项目得到了SSE（天然气能源）和SSPO（苏格兰鲑鱼生产者组织）的支持。该提案的目的是提供一个强大的工具，快速评估的可能性和规模的水母入侵EDF的托尼斯核电站的基础上模拟模式的历史水华扩散在北海从过去20年。为了实现这一目标，我们将利用最先进的海洋连通性建模系统来翻译我们以前由NERC资助的研究，以模拟个体在包含水母特定生物行为（例如垂直迁移，粗糙表面条件避免和与浮力相关的衰老效应）的水华中的扩散。我们有两个目标，将在18个月内完成，成本为161，618英镑（80% fEC）：（1）提供网格地图，具体到一年中的时间或海洋条件，给出水母到达托内斯的概率，以及最低和最高到达时间，在北海任何给定的源位置出现水华。(2)测试该工具是否适用于提供水母水华潜在入侵威胁的预警，包括利用历史和卫星观测数据进行验证。该工具将允许快速风险评估，并在未来或特定天气事件期间发现水母水华时为法国电力公司的业务反应提供信息。该工具还将确定北海的关键地点，在这些地点，持续监测对于托内斯核设施的预警系统至关重要。

The sudden 'en masse' appearance of jellyfish has serious consequences for coastal power stations through biofouling of cooling water systems. The reduction in water flow caused by jellyfish has forced power plants to run at reduced efficiency or temporarily shut down as a precautionary measure to prevent overheating, which impacts the provision of electricity to customers at a significant financial cost to the electricity supplier. A persistent difficulty lies in identifying the origin of blooms and when they will appear at a coastal facility and water intake. The main project partner for this proposal is EDF (nuclear), however the methodology is intentionally generic to allow adaptation to other sensitive coastal sites and therefore our project has the support of both SSE (gas energy) and SSPO (Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation). The aim of this proposal is to provide a robust tool for rapid evaluation of the likelihood and scale of jellyfish ingress at EDF's Torness Nuclear Power Station based on simulated patterns of historic bloom dispersal within the North Sea from the last 20 years. To achieve this we will translate our previously NERC-funded research with the state-of-the-art marine Connectivity Modelling System to simulate dispersal of individuals within blooms incorporating specific biological behaviours of jellyfish (e.g. vertical migration, rough surface conditions avoidance and buoyancy-related effects of aging). We have two objectives which will be completed within 18 months at a cost of £161,618 (80% fEC):(1) to provide gridded maps, specific to the time of the year or oceanographic conditions, giving the probability of jellyfish arriving at Torness, as well as minimum and peak arrival times, for blooms arising at any given source location within the North Sea.(2) to test the suitability of the tool for providing an early warning of potential ingress threat from jellyfish blooms, including validation with historic and satellite-based observational data.This tool will allow rapid risk evaluation and inform operational response by EDF when a jellyfish bloom is located in the future or during specific weather events. The tool will also identify critical locations in the North Sea where ongoing monitoring is essential for an early warning system for Torness Nuclear Facility.