FREEDOM: Forecasting Risk to upland water treatment assets from the Environmental Exacerbation of Dissolved Organic Matter levels.

由于高地原水供应中溶解有机物（DOM）浓度的上升，水处理系统面临着越来越大的风险。这导致了处理成本的上升，饮用水质量的破坏，以及对现有基础设施的威胁。该提案的工业合作伙伴苏格兰水务公司（SW）与CEH合作，旨在通过开发一种全新的方法来理解、管理和规划未来50年因环境变化而增加的DOM，从而应对这一挑战。这代表了当前水务行业对通过高地恢复来“管理”供水集水区不断上升的DOM水平的彻底背离，这种做法只取得了有限的成功。DOM级别上升的风险和成本是普遍存在的。它们影响到其他水务公司，包括联合公用事业公司、威尔士水务公司和爱尔兰水务公司，这些公司将与SW和学术合作伙伴（格拉斯哥大学和利兹大学）一起组成项目咨询委员会，并确保项目的持续相关性和影响力。该项目将以CEH开发的建模框架为基础，并利用新的科学理解为SW提供：1)关于未来环境变化对DOM水平影响的最新知识；2)基于网络的决策支持系统（DSS），用于预测与治疗相关的阈值最有可能在何时何地被突破；3)更有效地管理水处理资产的能力；4)为可持续流域规划和优化基础设施投资提供坚实的长期战略基础。通过发展这些能力，CEH将为SW提供优化缓解（如土地使用干预）和适应（如基础设施投资）战略的工具。建议的活动和（相应的工作包）包括：最终确定软件需求和整理项目数据库中的软件数据（WP1）；发展现有的模型框架，以预测未来DOM的质量、数量和关键表现指标；模型实施，重点关注大约100个SW供应集水区（WP3），根据气候变化和空气污染情景（WP4），生成英国高地当前和未来DOM浓度的空间明确模型；开发包含基于网络工具的DSS，为SW使用的模型输出提供前端，并能够预测未来年平均和季节性极端原水DOM浓度和质量，以及关键绩效指标（kpi） （WP5）。来自SW的额外资金将支持新数据的收集，以协助模型参数化和测试。CEH将与SW合作实施原型DSS，最初用于“范例”站点的子集进行测试，随后展示该工具的应用，然后扩展到WP2的全部集水区。然后将根据一系列环境情景和缓解策略评估对SW kpi的影响。调查结果将由行政主任在一系列向社会福利署提交的简报中公布，并直接通过发展支助计划公布。示范研究将在项目结束后的传播会议上向更广泛的水务行业介绍。在这一点上，其他水行业合作伙伴将有机会参与DSS的未来beta测试，并与CEH和彼此更密切地合作，开发进一步的迭代和功能。最终，该项目旨在改变整个英国水务行业不断上升的DOM方法，并有可能在国际上推广。项目持续时间为18个月。在此期间，SW将独立资助一个平行的新数据收集项目，这将有助于加强模型的经验基础和参数化，以支持未来的使用。按80%FEC计算，项目总成本为135,595英镑，其中SW提供75,000英镑用于支持补充抽样。

The water industry faces intensifying risks to its water treatment systems from rising dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentrations in upland raw water supplies. This is leading to rising treatment costs, drinking water quality breaches, and threats to existing infrastructure. Scottish Water (SW), the industrial partner in this proposal, working with CEH, aim to address this challenge by developing an entirely new approach to understanding, managing, and planning responses to DOM increases over the next 50 years in response to environmental change. This represents a radical departure from the current water industry focus on 'managing away' rising DOM levels in supply catchments through upland restoration, which has had only limited success.Risks and costs of rising DOM levels are widespread. They affect other water companies, including United Utilities, Welsh Water and Irish Water, who, alongside SW and academic partners (Universities of Glasgow and Leeds), will form the Project Advisory Board and ensure continued relevance and impact of the project. The project will build on a modelling framework developed by CEH and harness new scientific understanding to equip SW with: 1) state-of-the-art knowledge of the consequences of future environmental change for DOM levels; 2) a web-based Decision Support System (DSS) with which to anticipate where and when treatment-related thresholds are most likely to be breached; 3) the ability to more efficiently manage water treatment assets; and, 4) a robust, long-term strategic basis for sustainable catchment planning and optimised infrastructure investment. By developing these capabilities CEH will provide SW with tools to optimise mitigation (e.g. land-use interventions) and adaption (e.g. infrastructure investment) strategies. Proposed activities and (respective Work Packages) include: finalisation of SW needs and collation of SW data in a project database (WP1); development of an existing model framework to enable forecasting of future DOM quality, quantity and Key Performance Indicators (WP2); model implementation, focussed on circa 100 SW supply catchments (WP3), generation of a spatially explicit model of current and future DOM concentrations across the UK uplands according to climate change and air pollution scenarios (WP4); and, development of the DSS incorporating web-based tools, to provide a front-end for model outputs for use by SW, and enable forecasting of future annual average and seasonal extreme raw water DOM concentrations and quality, and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) (WP5). Additional funding from SW will support collection of new data to assist in model parameterisation and testing. CEH will work with SW to implement the prototype DSS, initially for a subset of 'exemplar' sites to test and subsequently showcase the application of the tool, before scaling up to the full set of catchments from WP2. Consequences for SW's KPIs will then be assessed for a range of environmental scenarios and mitigation strategies. Results will be disseminated by a CEH in a series of briefing notes to SW and through the DSS directly. Exemplar studies will be presented to the wider water industry at the end-of-project dissemination meeting. At this point other water industry partners will be given the opportunity to engage in a future beta-test of the DSS, and work more closely with CEH and each other in developing further iterations and functionality.Ultimately, the project aims to transform approaches to rising DOM across the UK water industry, and potentially internationally.Project duration will be 18 months. During this time, SW will independently fund a parallel project of new data collection that will help to strengthen the empirical basis and parameterisation of the model to support future use. The total cost of the project, at 80%FEC will be £135,595, with £75,000 from SW to support supplementary sampling.