NSFGEO-NERC Equatorial Line Observations

概述：极端天气事件的现代管理在很大程度上依赖于长时间可靠的天气预报。全球气候模式的可预测性很大程度上取决于热带环流的季节内变化，特别是马登-朱利安涛动（MJO）。海洋大陆（MC）可以说是全球天气和气候系统中最重要的区域，在亚季节到年代际时间尺度上强迫全球大气变率，是MJO的核心区域。然而，在我们的模式中，MC区域大气、海洋和陆地表面的多尺度相互作用观测较少，理解不足，表现不佳，导致扩展范围预报的系统误差。在本项目中，将在数天至三周的时间尺度上，研究大气赤道对流耦合开尔文波（CCKWs）的相互作用，这是东移对流的主要模式。CCKWs和其他赤道波构成了MJO活跃期的“基石”。主要工作将是在2018/2019冬季组织和执行赤道线观测（ELO）实地活动，这是国际海洋大陆年（YMC）计划的一个组成部分。基于收集的现场数据以及其他观测、遥感和建模数据集，将分析与海洋大陆上空传播大气对流相关的多尺度相互作用的关键物理机制。为此，将采用一种分析传播事件的新颖拉格朗日方法来研究热带波与当地大气和海洋环境之间的相互作用，特别是在MC区域。知识价值：该项目涉及大气物理学、物理海洋学和海气相互作用前沿的最先进的理论和观测研究。该项目的一个主要部分是致力于收集和分析独特的原位数据，这是提高对MJO和MC之间相互作用的理解的基础。作为该项目的结果，将确定阻碍和有利于大气对流在MC区域传播的物理、动力学和热力学机制。这将允许充分利用控制热带环流的天气模式的可预测性。更广泛的影响：确定极端降水事件的物理机制将使MC地区的居民受益。提高天气和气候预报的可靠性将使决策者、战略规划者、保险业和粮食安全行业受益，他们利用这些预测进行决策。来自美国、欧洲和印度尼西亚的科学家之间的合作将有助于所有参与机构的研究多样性和能力建设，并为参与该项目的早期职业研究人员带来巨大利益。

Overview: Modern management of extreme weather events crucially depends on weather forecasts reliable for extended time periods. Much of the predictability of global weather patterns lays within the intraseasonal variability of the tropical circulation and in particular the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Maritime Continent (MC) is arguably the most important region in the global weather and climate system, in terms of forcing global atmospheric variability on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales, and is the core region for the MJO. However, the multi-scale interactions of the atmosphere, ocean and land surfaces in the MC region are sparsely observed, poorly understood and badly represented in our models, leading to systematic errors in extended range forecasts. In this project, the interactions within atmospheric equatorial convectively coupled Kelvin waves(CCKWs), the leading modes of eastward moving convection on time scales between several days and three weeks, will be investigated. CCKWs and other equatorial waves form the "building blocks" of the active phase of MJO. The main effort will be to organize and execute the Equatorial Line Observations (ELO) field campaign during the winter of 2018/2019 - as a component of the International Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) program. Based on collected in-situ data as well as other observational, remote sensing and modelling datasets, the key physical mechanisms responsible for multi-scale interactions associated with the propagating atmospheric convection over the Maritime Continent will be analysed. To this end, a novel Lagrangian approach in the analysis of propagating events will be employed to study the interaction between tropical waves and the local atmospheric and oceanic environment, in particular over the MC region.Intellectual Merit: The project involves state-of-the-art theoretical and observational research at the frontiers of atmospheric physics, physical oceanography and air-sea interactions. A major part of the project is dedicated to the collection and analysis of unique in-situ data - fundamental to an improved understanding of the interaction between the MJO and MC. As a result of this project - the physical, dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms responsible for the blocking and favouring propagation of atmospheric convection across the MC region will be identified. This will allow full exploitation of the predictability of weather patterns that govern circulation in the tropics.Broader Impacts: The identification of physical mechanisms governing extreme precipitation events will benefit inhabitants of the MC region. Improved reliability of weather and climate forecasts will benefit the policy-makers, strategic planners, insurance industry and food security industries who use these predictions for decision making. Collaboration between scientists from the USA, Europe and Indonesia will contribute to research diversity and capacity building among all the involved institutions with great benefit for the early career researchers involved in this project.