Financial planning for natural disasters: the case of flooding risk in Central Java

拉夫堡将与我们的当地合作伙伴和洪水咨询公司JBA共同开发一个“决策支持框架”（DSF），其中包括在R中实施的演示软件和一系列分析（“案例研究”），说明如何使用损失和财务模型来提前计划极端洪水事件的财务后果。将编制这一DSF，以分析印度尼西亚中爪哇省梭罗和塞马朗两个城市使用金融工具的可能性。主要的研究任务是开发一个结构化的框架，用于基于模型的洪水和河流洪水事件的经济损失分析。这将把联合收割机标准空间数据、降雨量和洪水与当地信息结合起来，例如关于道路和桥梁等基础设施的暴露程度或弱势人口的位置。该项目将提供一个软件解决方案，其中包括风险和财务建模，并提供图形用户界面，供当地灾害管理机构和其他当地利益攸关方应用。一系列应用案例研究将提供不同复杂程度的说明性应用。在项目结束时，DSF将移交给我们的两个当地大学合作伙伴，以维护和支持项目后。我们还将研究从我们的研究中可以吸取哪些经验教训，以改善自然灾害（洪水和其他灾害）的财务规划，并在中爪哇，印度尼西亚其他省份和其他国家实施适当的预先安排的融资。

Loughborough will co-develop with our local partners and the flooding consultancy JBA associates a 'decision support framework' (or DSF) with demonstration software implemented in R and a series of analyses ('case studies') illustrating the use of loss and financial modelling to plan ahead for the financial consequences of extreme flood events. This DSF will be developed for analysing the potential use of financial instruments in two cities, Solo and Semarang, in Central Java Province, Indonesia. The main research task is developing a structured framework for model based analysis of financial loss from pluvial and fluvial flooding events. This will combine standard spatial data rainfall and flooding with local information e.g. on the exposure of infrastructure such as roads and bridge or location of vulnerable populations. The project will provide a software solution, incorporating exposure and financial modelling, with a graphical user interface for application by local disaster management agencies and other local stakeholders. A series of application case studies will provide illustrative applications at different levels of sophistication. At the end of the project the DSF will be handed over to our two local university partners for them to maintain and support post-project. We will also examine what lessons can be drawn from our research for improving financial planning for natural disasters (flooding and other hazards) and putting in place appropriate pre-arranged financing in Central Java, in other Indonesian provinces and in other countries.