[Indonesia] Extreme rainfall and its effects on flood risk in Indonesia

印度尼西亚面临着严重的洪水风险，这是由于其气候(强烈的季风雨)、地理(陡峭的山脉和河流)以及在河流出口处建造的特大城市的综合作用。这一风险已经很严重，而且随着气候变化的影响和城市人口的增加以及不受控制的发展，人们担心它会变得更糟。当洪水来袭时，它们通常是几个来源的组合：高流量的河流，城市不透水地面上的强烈降雨，以及来自海上的风暴潮。更糟糕的是，它们经常同时影响几个城镇--使应急反应和灾难恢复工作更加紧张。该项目旨在了解这些洪水事件是如何发生的，以便制定规划和缓解战略。这种理解包括：--什么时候发生洪水，可以发出什么警告--什么控制着空间范围(多少城市可能同时遭到破坏)--河流的流量有多大，发生的频率有多大--土地利用(毁林、城市化)对洪水的规模和速度有什么影响--洪水的规模和发生频率在未来可能会发生怎样的变化--洪水对城市造成了多大的破坏--管理洪水风险的策略将通过更好的理解提供信息，并可能采取以下形式：-更好的保险覆盖--对可能被洪水淹没的地区建立更好的预警系统--改变和控制土地用途--建筑洪水改道，防御或蓄水池研究的方法是使用计算机模型来模拟降雨、气候、河流流量和城市，以便安全地模拟不同洪水的影响和管理策略。因此，项目小组由气象学、气候变化、水文学和计算机模拟方面的专家组成。

Indonesia suffers from severe flood risk due to a combination of its climate (intense monsoon rainfalls), geography (steep mountains and rivers) and the mega-cities built at the outlet of rivers. This risk is already severe and it is feared it will become worse as climate change takes affect and the population of the cities grows even larger with uncontrolled development. When floods strike, they are often the combination of several sources: high river flows, intense rainfall on impermeable ground in cities and storm surges from the sea. Even worse, they often affect several cities and towns at once - stretching emergency responses and disaster recovery even further. The project aims to understand how these flood events happen so that planning and mitigation strategies can be developed. This understanding includes: - when floods occur, and what warning can be given- what controls the spatial extent (how many cities may be damaged at once)- how large the river flows can be and how often they happen- what effect land use (deforestation, urbanisation) has on the size and speed of floods- how the flood size and frequency of occurrence may change in the future - how much damage is caused in cities by the floodsStrategies to manage the flood risk will be informed by better understanding, and may take the form of:- better insurance cover- better warning systems for areas likely to be flooded- changing and controlling land use- building flood diversions, defences, or detention reservoirsThe approach being taken for the research is to use computer models of rainfall, climate, river flows and cities, so that the effects of different floods and management strategies can be simulated safely. The project team is therefore made up of experts in meteorology, climate change, hydrology and computer modelling.